MLB Picks and Predictions Saturday 7/14: Phillies Rockies, Rangers M’s
MLB Picks and Predictions, Saturday 7/14: Philadelphia Phillies at Colorado Rockies, Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners, Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins, Yankees Angels, Mets Braves, White Sox Royals
Our first day of MLB Picks and Predictions in the second half of the season was a great success. Our progressions went 6-1, which means only one of our series bets will go to a B bet in the chase progression. Still, some of those series appear to have more value in them so we’ll go to an AA progression, which is essentially an A bet with a safety net built into the wager for the third game of the series. We finished up 4.2 units on the day after falling short on run line bets.
Saturday’s lineup is full of fun games. The New York Yankees play the LA Angels in the second game of a once-heated rivalry. The Mets and Braves do the same as RA Dickey takes the mound against a lineup that pounded him in Atlanta. The Phillies go to a B bet against the lowly Rockies in our progression. The best thing about Saturdays with an MLB.TV subscription is a full day of baseball followed by a full night of drinking.
Washington Nationals (Even) at Miami Marlins – two units
The Washington Nationals delivered a convincing win in the first game of this four-game series. We are now able to launch a second progression on the series, again based on the pitching advantage the Nats have throughout this series and the value in the line. Nats 5 – Marlins 3
B Bet: Philadelphia Phillies (-130) at Colorado Rockies 2.6 units
The Phillies offense continued their struggles in the first game out of the break, but I expect a pitching advantage in all three games of this series to result in at least one win. We chase with the goal of earning one unit of profit on this series. The Phillies have an edge in each of the next two games and should be able to engineer one win. I am also on the under 10.5 line for one unit, to hedge our bet again in case they continue to struggle with the bats. Phillies 4 – Rockies 3
Chicago White Sox (-120) at Kansas City Royals – one unit
The White Sox are the better team and after a marathon in the first game of this series I expect that to be a deciding factor in Game Two. When the line was posted late, we were able to win one unit in that exciting game. I also have two units on the series line for -145. White Sox 5 – Royals 4
Texas Rangers (-130) at Seattle Mariners two units
The Texas Rangers have a lineup that should not fear Felix Hernandez. While it’s tough to bet with confidence against such a great pitcher, Yu Darvish should be able to match the Mariners ace. I expect the Rangers to snap out of their offensive funk in a big game. If not, I like their odds to get our money back in the third game of the series. Rangers 5 – Mariners 2
Cleveland Indians (+120) at Toronto Blue Jays – one unit
The Cleveland Indians have a lot of value here as an underdog. I’m not sure how they keep winning, but they do, and I’ll ride it one more game. Indians 4 – Jays 3
Oakland A’s (+110) at Minnesota Twins – one unit
The Athletics are another team that keeps hanging around. The Twins really are that bad, and the mediocrity of the A’s should be enough to trump Minnesota again. A’s 6 – Twins 2
San Diego Padres at LA Dodgers (-140) – one unit
The Dodgers are a top team in a weak division. The Padres are the bottom team in that division. After a tight game where Clayton Kershaw was able to hold on to a tight win, I expect the Dodgers to rally. Dodgers 5 – Padres 4
Pass (No Bet):
Cubs Dbacks – Ryan Dempster is one of the best in baseball, but the Cubs are one of its worst teams.
Angels Yankees – The Yankees can beat anyone, but the Angels always play them tough.
Tigers Orioles – After winning on the first bet of the series, why risk our profits here?
Mets Braves – I like the Braves here, but I’m not betting against RA Dickey ever again.
Cards Reds – It’s too tough to decide between these two mediocre teams, but the under hit yesterday.
Red Sox Rays – No value in the line, and these division rivals are pretty unpredictable.
Pirates Brewers – I think the Pirates are the better team, but I don’t trust Kevin Correia.
Astros Giants – No value in the line again. I don’t like heavy favorites in a sport like baseball.
ABC Progressions: 6-0, +7.6 units of profit
Single Bets: 0-1, -2.2 units
Over/Under: 2-1, +.8 units of profit
-1.5 run line: 0-2, -2 units
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