MLB Picks and Predictions, Friday 7/13: Dbacks Cubs, Mets Braves, Angels Yankees
MLB Picks and Predictions, Friday the 13th: Arizona Diamondbacks at Chicago Cubs, New York Mets at Atlanta Braves, LA Angels at New York Yankees, Red Sox Rays, Cardinals Reds, Rangers Mariners
The second half of the baseball season is upon us. I didn’t post much in the first half, but we finished up a modest amount and it’s time to bring back MLB Picks and Predictions, and what better a day to start than Friday the 13th? The Arizona Diamondbacks are squarely in the hunt in one of the worst divisions in baseball, but the Chicago Cubs are always tough at Wrigley. The New York Mets, who just lost to the Cubs, visit Atlanta in a Wild Card battle as both look up at the Washington Nationals. We outline all the games and series on the first day back after the All-Star break.
We’ll outline our MLB picks in predictions in three ways. There are the handful of games and series that I won’t be betting at all, such as the Yankees and Angels today. There are also single games where I’ll be betting based on matchups and lines I find profitable. Lastly, I’ll outline the series progressions where we’ll be betting on an incremental scale, needing only to win one game in each series to be profitable and attempting to find series where a sweep from the other team is unlikely.
SYSTEM PROGRESSIONS (A, B, C depending on the chase stage of the series)
[2 units, first progression bet (A bet)] Texas Rangers (-150) Vs Seattle Mariners —> also 2 units on over 7.5
If Kevin Millwood shuts down the Texas Rangers here, I’ll be shocked. If Holland allows more runs than Millwood, we cover ourselves with the over. Texas 8 – Mariners 5
[2 units, a bet] Detroit Tigers (EVEN) Vs Baltimore Orioles
The Tigers are starting to get hot and I expect them to keep hitting. The O’s are cooling off, as we’ve come accustomed to after good starts in Baltimore. Tigers 6 – Orioles 4
[2 units, a bet] Washington Nationals (+115) Vs Miami Marlins
This is a great opportunity for a system bet. The Nats have a pitching advantage in at least three of the four games against the Marlins and they were the much better team in the first half. I love this line. Nats 5 – Marlins 4
[1 unit, a bet] Philadelphia Phillies (-160) Vs Colorado Rockies —> Also 1 unit on Phillies -1.5, 1 unit on under 10 Rockies Vs Phillies
Now that Cliff Lee has his first win, is there any stopping him? You know, if he went to the Yankees and not the Phillies, he’d probably have a better record since New York actually scores runs once in a while. Phillies 5 – Rockies 3
[1 unit, a bet] LA Dodgers (-190) Vs San Diego Padres —> Also 1 unit on Dodgers -1.5
Both of these teams have lost three games in a row, but one of them is in first place. I assume that means it’s more out of character for the Dodgers to lose a bunch than the Padres. Dodgers 4 – Padres 1
[1 unit, a bet] Oakland Athletics (+125) Vs Minnesota Twins
The Twins really are this bad. The Athletics have a pitching advantage through the series and will likely win at least once. A’s 5 – Twins 3
NON-PROGRESSION, SINGLE BETS
[2 units] Arizona Diamondbacks (-120) Vs Chicago Cubs
The Diamondbacks need a clutch performance from their ace as they fight for a playoff spot in the weakest division in baseball. The Cubs have a pitching advantage in the next two games, so this does not qualify for a progression. Diamondbacks 6 – Cubs 2
Yankees Angels – Yankees lineup can beat anyone, but how are they heavy favorites with this part of their rotation up?
Indians Jays – Two mediocre teams, each with their own strengths. No reason to pick one of them here.
Sox Rays – This division rivalry is always unpredictable. The Rays play their best against Boston and New York.
Cards Reds (under 8.5) – No moneyline bet, but I like these two pitchers against these relatively weak lineups.
Braves Mets – I remember when this was a great rivalry – now it’s just a valueless line.
Pirates Brewers – The Brewers have a pitching advantage over a hotter, better Pirates team. Safer to avoid this one.
Astros Giants – There is never much value in a -250 moneyline, even against the lowly Astros.
white sox royals (no line yet) – On Friday the 13th, the post- All-Star Game Royals might be a scary wager.
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