Fantasy Football: Andre Johnson’s Injury and It’s Impact on Arian Foster

Should Andre Johnson’s injury cause you to sell Foster Low? Only if you write for Yahoo.

Last week I had an epiphany. I realized it would be much more productive for a blogger to ask readers for their fantasy football advice than the other way around because so many of the professionals and experts out there helping people decide their starts/sits are so full of shit. The rush to generate search engine optimized content combined with the sheer amount of factors they have to consider would really make the job impossible for anyone, but at least I am the first to have the brains to stop pretending I know something you don’t.

Except for that I know 10 times more than you about Fantasy Football. But you certainly think that you know 100 times more than me, so that is the basis on which this whole thing works. We feed off each others’ genius.

Last week readers gave me great advice in my Arian Foster vs. Tim Hightower debate. That may seem very obvious now, but at the time Foster had already burned me in Week 2, and Hightower helped carry Pittbull’s Revenge to a 2-1 record even without Arian. And there were a lot of questions surrounding how many touches Foster would see versus the, until last Sunday, very intimidating Pittsburgh Steelers. Not to mention, the Rams were the worst in the league in rushing defense, giving up 377 yards a game through the first three contests. But we did the research, and after some debate, the readers and I concluded it was Foster time. He did not disappoint, going off for a buck fifty five and a score. Hightower, on the other hand, lost all possible fantasy and trade value with one yank of Mike Shanahan’s Sandman hook.

To think I am 100% sure I could have traded Hightower for Jordy Nelson last week. That is why I need you people!

The wisdom of the masses also helped me make all the right decisions with my receivers save one. We should have gone Victor Cruz over Nate Washington, but it is tough with guys like Cruz who only catch a few passes a game and leave the ball unguarded in the middle of the field during close contests. The masses were dead on about Dwayne Bowe and A.J. Green. As individuals, we are all fantasy geniuses. But when we work together, we become one giant ass-kicking Fantasy Football Voltron.

Here is a perfect example of why you should never base your starts/sits on any one member of the mainstream media just because they collect a corporate check. I am not really in the mainstream media, but please do ignore me too if I start acting like I have definitive answers. Check out this bit of from the hip advice Yahoo Sports’ Michael Salfino offered about Foster in his Scouting Notebook today:

“Here is your “sell high” opportunity, Arian Foster(notes) owners. Do you have the guts to cash out? If Andre Johnson(notes) is out for a while, the running dynamic in Houston can change irrespective of his re-injury risk.”

This guy should do reconnaissance for Custer.

At the risk of sounding unprofessional, yes, most of us do need to get more fiber, but that is no reason for the mainstream media to assume we directly want to eat shit on the regular. Let us examine Salfino’s statement:

First of all, he seems to think now is the time to trade Foster after keeping him on your bench for the first 1/4 of the fantasy season due to injury. That is just silly. Yes, there is a chance of a re-injury. But Foster strained his hammy early in the pre-season. I believe he did it during his first carry of OTA’s. Everybody who drafted him knew it would be an issue. And now that he broke through with a 155 one TD performance, it’s time to move him? Then what the hell did you draft him for?

But that is just a matter of opinion. And I understand that the paragraph about Foster was just an aside in a much larger Notebook Entry for Salfino. But Arian Foster is the axis around which many leagues may yet revolve.

Salfino should have done some simple research before possibly causing millions of fantasy nerds to sell Arian Foster at all due to what appears to be a minor injury to Andre Johnson. The fact is that if Johnson is out, that could actually be a good thing for Foster owners from a cold-hearted Fantasy Football perspective. And there is a plethora of empirical data to prove it. I know that Salfino is a busy man with a lot on his plate, but he should have done five minutes of Googling before handing out such jaded advice. Check out Foster’s numbers from the three games Johnson missed last year:

Johnson missed Houston’s Week 4 meeting with the Raiders in 2010. Foster went for 133 on 17 carries with a TD. He also had three receptions for 56 yards and a tochdown.

Johnson missed Week’s 16 and 17 last year against Denver and Jacksonville respectively. Foster went for 91 yards on 19 carries against the Broncos. He added four receptions for 44 yards and a TD. Against the Jag Wagon, Foster went for 180 yards om 31 carries with 2 TD’s. He also had two receptions for 10 yards.

And oh yeah. There’s the last time Foster played without Johnson. I believe that was yesterday. Johnson left the game with about six minutes left in the first half. Foster rushed for 60 and a TD in the second half. Out of our four examples of Foster playing without Johnson, 100% of them have been either very good or monster games.

If you are worried about Foster’s hammy, why did you use a first rounder on him anyway? Nothing has changed there. Do you really want to move a guy who is in a league of his own when it comes to consistently producing pinball like fantasy numbers because some shmuck who writes for Yahoo doesn’t know how to use Google? Whatever. More than anything, this proves the wisdom of the unwashed masses trumps the insight of the work drunk literati every time.

And why not sell Foster the day after Ben Tate, the guy most likely to steal his carries, goes out with a groin injury? That makes perfect sense!

So again, here is the deal: I know 10 times more than you about Fantasy Football. But I know you think you know 100 times more than me. Since we are all such geniuses, why not help each other?

Please continue to post your start/sits for the readers and me to debate. Please continue to help me with mine.

My big dilemma this week is that I have Jason Witten, and Dallas has a bye. I have Buffalo’s Scott Chandler as a back-up, but I am really not liking him at home against Philly. He has only had one big game so far, and has displayed a nose for the end zone. But he dudded out on Sunday, and I see Buffalo doing a lot of grinding against Philly. Chandler was a top 15 TE in my league before his dud against Cincinnati in Week 4, so it could be worse. I also have James Casey, who is listed as a TE/RB in my league. He went off for 10 receptions, 125 yards and a TD two weeks ago. Owen Daniels seemed to get his looks against Pittsburgh, and Casey had maybe .3 points. But Casey is a guy who really could benefit from an Andre Johnson absence of any length of time. That is definitely me shooting from the hip, but tempered with knowledge. Easily 10 times more than Salfino possesses.

So what do y’all think? Chandler, Casey or a waiver wire pick-up (suggestions welcome)?

What line-up problems do you have this week? Lets work together to become one fully functioning, exponentially powerful Fantasy Football UniMind! Keep in mind, I play in a Flex/PPR league that counts return yards (in case you have a hot lead on a TE who will be returning punts this week).

Lets get week 5 started up in this mofo!.

http://sports.yahoo.com/fantasy/nfl/news?slug=sf-salfino_scouting_notebook_11week4

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