NFL Picks Week 1: Don’t Be a Tebow
You probably heard that Tim Tebow stubbornly turned down a job offer from an NFL team because he didn’t want to change positions. That’s like turning down sex with an impossibly hot girl because you don’t want to try doggy style—something I imagine Tebow’s turned down, too.
When it comes to betting on the NFL, you don’t want to be stubbon like Tebow and cling to your pre-conceived notions of how an NFL season will play out. For instance, I thought that concerns over the new-look Ravens defense was overblown and picked them to cover the 7.5 point spread last night—if only that was the under/over for Peyton Manning touchdown passes, I would have won. Barely.
Okay, so the Ravens suck, and Joe Flacco is still a guy you never want throwing the ball 62 times. Ever. Cool—I’m done with the Ravens and hitching myself on Team Red Rifle. If only because saying “I’m on Team Roethlisberger” makes it sound like you’re headed to the nearest sorority house with a handful of roofies.
On to the picks, organized by confidence level:
A SURER THING THAN MILEY CYRUS ON A FURRY FRENZY
Patriots (-9.5) over BILLS
The ridiculous success of the Gang of Four quarterbacks last year (Kaepernick, RUSSELL WILSON, Luck, and RGIII) and Cam Newton/Andy Dalton the year before has skewed our perspective on what rookie quarterbacks are usually like: confused puppies in a dog park surrounded by pitbulls and, in all likelihood, Ian Eagle, covertly masturbating on a bench. Before the draft, everyone said that EJ Manuel needed two years to sit and observe and get acclimated to the game. Instead, he got two halves of a preseason game. That’s like giving a fresh college grad 6 weeks of training before feeding him to a class of 50 inner-city 7th graders. (Oh wait, that’s what Teach For America does. FIVE MONTHS OF MY LIFE WASTED; I’M STILL BITTER).
Everyone’s freaking out about the Pats no-name receiving corps, but Tom Brady has been through this before. He’s the Pharrell of NFL quarterbacks.
This game screams 38-10 Pats. I’d take this line if it was Pats -19.5
REDSKINS (-3.5) over Eagles
As a Giants fan, it’s hard coming to grips with the fact that I think the Redskins are going to be really good. I spent first-round picks on Alfred Morris in two fantasy leagues, and drafted RGIII in another. It made me feel dirty.
Luckily they’re playing the Eagles, whom I irrationally hate more than things far more deserving of hatred. Recently went to the Holocaust Museum and just felt really sad. Send me to the Linc? MURDEROUS RAGE. Everyone thinks that Chip Kelly’s fast-paced offense is going to blow our mind and make Jaws blow his load, but the Pats, Broncos, Ravens and others have already been experimenting with this type of fast-paced football. It works, certainly, but it doesn’t make up for a porous Eagles defense that has no chance of stopping RGIII.
Packers (+4.5) over 49ERS
How is this line 4.5 and not 3? Did Jim Harbaugh just finish a motivational speaking tour at a bunch of corporate Vegas conferences? Does anyone realize that the 49ers are starting Kyle Williams at wide receiver, a player who probably couldn’t even make the Packers team? Or that Anquan Boldin runs like he’s perpetually stuck in a slow-motion replay?
Listen, the 49ers destroyed the Packers in the playoffs last year because the Packers coaches decided that gameplanning the read-option was below them. I MOVED ON FROM THAT COLLEGE SHIT FOR A REASON, DAMN IT. They’ll recover.
Seahawks (-4) over PANTHERS
There’s a growing consensus that the Seahawks are the best team in the league. Young, dynamic defense featuring a pair of terrifyingly tall, fast corners. Great offensive line. An unstoppable read-option duo (Wilson and Lynch). An underrated receiving corps. The fact that Russell Wilson could ask me to airdrop into Syria tomorrow with him and I wouldn’t give it a second thought. Speaking of which, wouldn’t it be incredible if Russell Wilson starred in a remake of Top Gun? I know Seahawks fans who would literally chop off their arms to play the Val Kilmer role opposite him as his homoerotic best bud.
ENIGMA DEATH MATCHES
Giants (+3.5) over COWBOYS
This week pits a number of teams that you could see finishing anywhere from 4-12 to 12-4. The Giants and Cowboys are eerily similar. They both have very good quarterbacks that are easier to make fun of than a fat guy in cycling shorts. They both have a trio of tall, dynamic receivers and secondary that seems to think that “underperforming” is a compliment. They both have questionable offensive lines, and running backs that look superhuman one play and get their quarterback decapitated the next.
However, the Cowboys have less depth than a kiddie pool and wreaks of urine. Their best defensive player, DeMarcus Ware, is playing a position (defensive end) that he hasn’t lined up at since “I Believe in a Thing Called Love” was somehow a number one hit. And while the Giants retooled offensive line is an unknown, the Cowboys o-line isn’t. It just sucks. Why can’t Tony Romo lead this team to the Super Bowl with only 1.7 seconds to throw? HE JUST DOESN’T HAVE THE MOXY.
What about Eli? This says everything:
<iframe width=”560″ height=”315″ src=”//www.youtube.com/embed/jn5zytfm9No” frameborder=”0″ allowfullscreen></iframe>
Bengals (+3) over BEARS
I feel like the betting public has an instinct with the Bengals that goes: “You want me to bet on the ginger? GOOD LUCK WITH THAT.”
But Andy Dalton is serviceable, and the Bengals are downright talented. AJ Green is a generational talent. Giovani Bernard not only has an awesome name but also finally gives the Bengals a back capable for running for 20 yards at a time. And they might sport the league’s best pash-rush secondary combo. Robert Geathers, Wallace Gilberry, and Geno Atkins have to be giving Jay Cutler nightmares. He’s going to have trouble hucking it up to Brandon Marshall with that pass rush bearing down on him and the NFL’s deepest group of corners—Leon Hall, Terrence Newman, Pacman Jones and 2012 first-rounder Dre Kirkpatrick—blanketing Marshall.
SAINTS (-3) over Falcons
Two teams with dynamic offenses and suspect Ds. At this point, the Falcons’ offense, featuring the most boring great QB on the planet, Matt Ryan, and the deadly trio of Julio Jones, Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez, is probably a wash with Breesus’s crew. And the Falcons D gets the edge over the Saints D because Andy Reid naked and slathered in butter would do a better shot of throwing opposing QBs off their rhythm.
Still, this is a revenge game for all the bounty bullshit, and you can’t bet against that.
I KNOW THIS IS ON NATIONAL TV, BUT DO I REALLY HAVE TO WATCH IT?
Texans (-3.5) over CHARGERS
Phillip Rivers is that high school girl who gains 25 lbs. over the summer, breaks out in acne, gets shunned by everyone and ends up eating lunch in the corner with the quiet girl with a misshapen head. Don’t sorry, Philip, you and Fitzpatrick will be BFF forever.
LET’S BET AGAINST TERRIBLE TEAMS!
STEELERS (-7) over Titans
I bet that The Tennessean’s headline writers can’t wait for all those “Clean Out Your Locker!” puns the Titans finally give up on Jake.
Buccaneers (-3) over JETS
The Buccaneers have an explosive offense, ridiculously improved defense, and an inconsistent quarterback capable of moments of greatness. As far as I can tell, the Jets are some sort of bizarre Snuff Porn being directed by Rex Ryan.
Chiefs (-4) over JAGUARS
CBS should really just save some money and let two shit-housed fans announce this game.
BROWNS (Pick ‘Em) over Dolphins
Weeden! Tannenhill! I can’t wait till they’re sadly competing for the Cardinals backup QB job in three years.
LIONS (-4) over Vikings
Four words: Bill Batrnwell Regression Porn.
Cardinals (+4.5) over RAMS
Can someone please explain to me why everyone thinks the Ram will be a REAL SOLID 8-8 TEAM? They have four above-average playes. Jeff Fisher is a mediocre middle manager who somehow escaped his cubicle and ended up coaching a football team. He probably spends more time scolding Sam Bradford for letting the lamination peel off his playbook than actually coaching the team.
Follow us on twitter@thefastertimes