6:16 — So CNN is using the theme from John Adams theme for its election night music. Not bad…

6:40 — Results are starting to trickle in for a few key House races. In Kentucky’s 6th congressional district, Ben Chandler is fighting off a strong challenge from GOPer Andy Barr. Also keep an eye on Indiana-9, Baron Hill’s (D) district…

7:04 p.m. — Some leaked exit polls from Senate races here. The usual caveats apply — exit polls (early exit polls in particular) are extremely unreliable…

7:05 p.m. — Rand Paul wins in Kentucky, and Dan Coats prevails in Indiana. No surprises yet. IN is the first GOP Senate pick-up for the night.

7:36 p.m. — Rob Portman (R) projected winner in OH-SEN. This is a Republican hold, not a pick-up.

7:45 p.m. — Let’s not let this night pass us by without calling out Evan Bayh for the craven manner in which he exited this year’s Senate race. Maybe Brad Ellsworth was the best possible candidate the Dems could have hoped for. But we’ll never know, because Bayh ducked out at the last minute, making a primary impossible. He then proceeded to sit on his war chest, presumably for a future gubernatorial or presidential bid. Well done, sir.

7:54 — First important call in House projections: John Yarmuth (D) prevails in Kentucky-3. Yarmuth, a staunch progressive, ousted GOPer Ann Northup in 2006. Had he been defeated, this would have been a devastating loss for the Dems.

7:59 — Shocker of the night! Jim DeMint defeats Alvin Greene in South Carolina. Senate races in Illinois and PA are looking bleak for the Dems.

8:00 — Sen. Pat Leahy (D) has been reelected in Vermont.

8:01 — Chris Coons (D), Kelly Ayotte (R), and Marco Rubio (R) projected to win in Deleware, NH, and Florida, respectively. Also, Sen. Barbara Mikulski (D-MD) and Richard Shelby (R-AL) projected to win.

8: 05 — Dems win open, GOP-held House seat in Delaware. This is the first, and probably one of very few Democratc pickups of the night.

8:30 — Robert Hurt (R) is the projected winner in VA-5, defeating the progressive incumbent, Tom Periello. First GOP House pickup of the night.

8:31 — Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D), as expected, goes down to defeat in Arkansas. The GOP has picked up 2 Senate seats so far tonight.

8:34 — Blumenthal (D) prevails in Connecticut. Richard Burr (R), as was expected, has been reelected in North Carolina.

8:41 — Joe Manchin (D) prevails in WVA Senate race. Big win for the Dems. They are now all but certain to keep their Senate majority.

8:43 — Long-time Rep. Rick Boucher (D) has gone down to defeat in VA-9.

8:57 — GOP picks up FL-8 (Alan Grayson’s seat), FL-24 (freshman Suzanne Kosmas’ (D) seat) and IN-8 (the Ellsworth seat). 3 more GOP House pickups.

8:59 — Baron Hill (D) loses in Indiana. This was a key toss-up race for the Dems.

9:00 — Gillibrand (D) and Schumer (D) prevail in New York. Sen. John Thune reelected in S.D. John Hoeven (R) wins Senate seat in N.D. GOP pick-up. No surprises. Cuomo elected Governor in NY.

9:06 p.m. — Senate races in Colorado and Wisconsin are too close to call.

9:12 — Rand Paul giving victory speech now….ugh. What an ass.

9:18 — CNN and NBC project GOP control of the House.

9:47 Joe Donelly (D) holds on in IN-2.

9:49 — Rep. Lincoln Davis (D) loses in TN-4. GOP pick-up.

9:51 — Gov. Deval Patrick (D) reelected in MA.

9:52 — Rep. Heath Schuler (D) lives to fight another day in NC-11.

9:55 — Rep. Carol Shea Porter (D-NH), who won a huge upset victory in 2006, has been defeated for reelection.

10:38 — Biggest heartbreaker of the night: Russ Feingold falls in Wisconsin.

10:43 — Dems pick up LA-2.

10:53 — Rep. Rush Holt (D) holds on in NJ.

11:02 — Ugh. Rep. John Spratt (D-SC), a brave, thoughtful American statesman, goes down to defeat.

11:38 — Jerry Brown (D) elected governor of CA

11:56 — Pat Toomey (R) defeats Sestak (D) in PA.

12:02 — Looks like Boxer has been reelected in CA.

The post Liveblogging the Carnage: Election Night Coverage 2010 appeared first on The Faster Times.

In Pennsylvania, Rep. Joe Sestak has surged in the polls these past few weeks against Republican-turned Democrat-turned arch liberal Democrat Arlen Specter. A close race is expected, with Sestak the slight favorite. Also, Democrat Mark Critz will face Republican Tim Burns in a special election to replace the late Rep. Jack Murtha (D-PA). This is a highly competitive district, and the latest polling shows a dead heat.

In Arkansas, Lt. Gov. Bill Halter (D) hopes to oust incumbent Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D), although this race may have to be settled by a runoff if D.C. Morrison (D) is able to hold both candidates to less than 50% of the vote. Halter is strongly backed by labor and the progressive blogosphere, while Lincoln enjoys the support of the White House and most of the Democratic establishment. Morrison has run to the right of both major candidates, and is viewed by most Democrats as a gadfly.

In the Kentucky primary for U.S. Senate, Rand Paul (son of Ron Paul) appears to be on the verge of a major upset over Trey Grayson, who has the backing of the entire Republican establishment — including Sen. Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY).

Check back tonight for updates in real time. The polls close at 6 p.m. in Kentucky, 8 p.m. in Pennsylvania, and 8:30 p.m. in Arkansas.

7:12 p.m. — No surprises so far in Kentucky, as Rand Paul leads Trey Grayson 55%-39% with 4% of precincts reporting.

7:25 p.m. — The Kentucky Democratic primary for U.S. Senate has received far less attention than the GOP race, but Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo — who is disliked by much of the liberal blogosphere, is in very tight race against Attorney General Jack Conway, widely viewed as the more progressive candidate between the two. In fact, Conway is actually leading Mongiardo 47%-40% with 13% of precincts reporting.

7:31 p.m. — In case you’re wondering why we’ve already got results from Kentucky, the Bluegrass State closes its polls at 6 p.m. To call that regressive would be quite an understatement. It’s blatantly discriminatory against the working poor — or anyone who isn’t upper middle class, really. What possible justification could there be for shutting down the polls before many people can leave their cubicles and workstations? What am I missing?

7:45: — With 28% reporting, the KY Republican primary is beginning to look like a blowout. Rand Paul is dominating, 59%-36%.

7:47 p.m. — AP projects Rand Paul will win the GOP primary for U.S. Senate in Kentucky. This is a huge embarrassment for Mitch McConnell.

7:48 p.m. — TPM reports that Paul clobbered Grayson in his home county (Boone) by a margin of 67%-31%. Ouch.

8:03 p.m. — With 38% of precincts reporting, Conway has a commanding lead over Mongiardo in Kentucky, 50%-38%.

9:15 p.m. — With 11% of precincts reporting in Pennsylvania, Specter leads Sestak 55%-45%.

9:23 p.m. — Keep in mind that Specter needs to do very well in Philadelphia to have a shot at beating Sestak. So far, he’s in good shape. With 41% of precincts reporting, Specter leads 64%-36 in Philly. Hard to say if it will be enough for Arlen to prevail, but he’s definitely still in this thing.

9:45 p.m. — With 32% reporting in Pennsylvania, Specter and Sestak are tied, 50% to 50%.

9:54 p.m. — Dave Wasserman, an analyst with the Cook Political Report, tweets: “running down the list county-by-county, it’s becoming clearer and clearer Specter has no hope of pulling this out”

His view is consistent with what most analysts are saying at the moment. The consensus among the number-crunchers seems to be that Specter is toast.

9:55 p.m. — Sestak pulls ahead with 42% reporting, 52%-48%

10:06 p.m. — AP calls KY Senate Democratic primary for Jack Conway

10:14 p.m. — AP calls PA Democratic primary for Joe Sestak

10:47 p.m. — In the special election in Pennsylvania’s highly competitive 12th district, Democrat Mark Critz has defeated Republican Tim Burns. This was the only district that voted for John Kerry in 2004 and John McCain in 2008. Obama lost the district by less than one percentage point.

11:08 p.m. — NBC reports that the Arkansas Democratic primary for Senate will go to a runoff election. Currently, Blanche Lincoln leads Bill Halter 44%-42%, with 38% of precincts reporting.

The post Sestak Defeats Specter in PA, Paul Wins Big in Kentucky — Election Night Liveblogging appeared first on The Faster Times.

See Jonathan Martin’s piece on the RNC shakeup here.

Also, Josh Marshall’s take here.

The post Steele’s RNC appeared first on The Faster Times.

1:50 p.m. — The House is currently voting on a number of minor bills in order to get members to the floor and get head counts, allow the leadership to talk to their respective caucuses, etc. Debate has not really begun yet…

2:05 p.m — Multiple news sources are reporting that Rep. Bart Stupak (D-MI) will support HCR after receiving reassurances from President Obama that he will sing an executive order reiterating a ban of public funding of abortions in health insurance plans. Stupak probably brings with him 6-8 votes, giving Democrats a bigger cushion. Assuming the Dems don’t lose anyone, they should have 220+ yea votes.

3:03 p.m. — The House just voted down a procedural objection made by Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI) to considering the health bills

3:19 p.m. — Stupak is apparently saying there is no deal on abortion yet, contrary to previous reports…

3:45 p.m — The House voting on another GOP procedural objection. It should be noted that the House is still debating the resolution setting terms for floor debate.

4:15 p.m. — Stupak is now confirming he has reached a deal with the White House and will support the bill.

4:25 p.m. — Stupak is speaking now about the deal…

4:36 p.m. — It was never clear exactly how many members were in Stupak’s corner (he claimed, although most observers were dubious), but this should result in a margin of victory that is greater than expected.

5:12 pm. — David Frum on why HCR is the GOP’s waterloo, not Obama’s

6:32 p.m. — The House has now passed the resolution allowing the chamber to debate and vote on the Senate HCR bill, and the reconciliation bill.

7:47 p.m. NOW puts out a statement, entitled “President Obama Breaks Faith with Women,” blasting President Obama’s executive order. Seriously? The executive order doesn’t include the Stupak’s proposed restrictions. It merely restates current law (the Hyde amendment, which bars public funding for abortions).

7:52 — I have to wonder what’s going through the mind of Rep. Chet Edwards — a normally progressive Democrat from a heavily Republican district in Texas who has taken his share of tough votes. He’s voting no, and given his district, it wouldn’t be that surprising except for his long record of taking brave votes.

8:09 p.m. — Oh boy, Republicans made a motion that Rep. Bill Pascrell’s (D-NJ) comments be “taken down,” which would basically strike his comments from the official record and ban him from speaking for the rest of the night. He accused the Republicans of making “false statements.” Go figure. I think the rules are on Pascrell’s side here, but this brings proceedings to a screeching halt for the moment.

8:15 p.m. — Pascrell got unanimous consent to withdraw his remarks, so there won’t be a ruling.

8:28 p.m. — Yglesias is right — Stupak totally caved. Which is why NOW President Terry O’Neil’s hysterical statement is so wrong-headed.

8:35 p.m. — Clearly, Bart Stupak was not an asset to Democrats’ efforts to pass HCR. But I think his willingness to accept this executive order — which merely restates current law — suggests he wanted to vote for reform all along.

8:43 p.m. — I’m glad TPM flagged this. Rep. Devin Nunes (R-CA), when asked about teapartiers hurling the N-word at Rep. John Lewis (D-GA), basically said it was an understandable reaction the Dems being “tyrannical.” Apparently, Nunes isn’t particularly bothered by racial epithets being directed at his colleagues.

10:07 p.m. — Don’t know what Boehner’s trying to do here, but fire and brimstone just isn’t his thing…

10:35 p.m. — The House is now voting on the Senate-passed HCR bill. THe bill currently has 180 YES votes. The Dems need 216 to pass the bill.

10:41 p.m. — 202 YES votes…

10:45 p.m. — 216 YEA votes — Senate HCR bill is as good as passed…

10:48 p.m. — Final tally is 219-212. The House has passed the Senate bill.

10:57 p.m. — House is now debating a GOP motion to recommit, which basically sends the bill back to committee, and immediately brings it back to the House floor with an amendment.

10:59 p.m. — Interesting — the motion to recommit provides for greater restrictions on abortions — and Bart Stupak is leading the opposition to it. “This motion does not promote life….”

11:08 p.m. — Democrats are easily beating back this motion — they’ve already got 2120 NO votes

11:21 p.m. — NBC is reporting that a Republican member shouted “baby killer” at Stupak while he was speaking on the floor.

11:30 p.m. Dems now have 217 YES votes for the reconciliation bill.

11:37 p.m. — It’s done — the House passed the reconciliation bill 220-211. It now goes to the Senate.

The post The Health Care Vote, Hour-By-Hour appeared first on The Faster Times.

From Rasmussen’s analysis:

“Women give a slight edge to Giannoulias at this point, while male voters and voters not affiliated with either major party break nearly even….Only nine percent (9%) of Illinois voters view Giannoulias very favorably, while 19% view him very unfavorably. Another 13% are not sure. Kirk is regarded very favorably by 13% and very unfavorably by 12%. Nineteen percent (19%) do not know enough about him to venture even a soft favorable or unfavorable opinion….Fifty-two percent (52%) of voters in Illinois favor the health care reform plan proposed by the president and congressional Democrats, while 46% are opposed to the plan. These numbers include 35% who Strongly Favor the plan and 37% who Strongly Oppose it. Support for the plan is considerably higher in Illinois than among voters nationwide.”

The post Rasmussen: Giannoulias (D) leads Kirk (R) in Illinois appeared first on The Faster Times.

Hamsher responded in a lengthy post:

“The breathless Marc Ambinder prints this today:

Already, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is blasting Democratic activist Jane Hamsher for using Survey USA to essentially poll-pressure Blue Dog Democrats into retirement.

Really? We’re trying to pressure Blue Dogs into retirement? Where? Well, he doesn’t say.

The fact that the poll was on health care, and we’ve been writing about health care solidly for the past 8 months, seems to have escaped his notice. Are the polls accurate? Yes, but that doesn’t matter, printing them is tantamount to ‘poll pressure.’

There’s a key piece of information Ambinder seems to have omitted from the article:

BARON HILL IS LOSING BY 8 POINTS TO HIS GOP OPPONENT…

Rahm Ambinder goes on to say that Bayh ‘really grew to dislike the influence of liberal activists on his Senate colleagues.’ Well, it’s nice to know Bayh found the strength to vote against Byron Dorgan’s drug reimportation amendment that would have saved both the government and the public billions of dollars in drug costs. Having taken $439,000 in campaign donations from pharmaceutical companies alone, what’s a guy to do?”

In the world according to Jane Hamsher, Rahm Emmanuel controls the universe, is the root of all evil, and Marc Ambinder is his bitch. Needless to say, the world according to Jane Hamsher is a rather peculiar place. Still, leaving aside the vitriol in her response, I think some of the criticism aimed at her with respect to her polls is unwarranted. Hamsher contends — and the pollster confirms — that she played no role in crafting the questions.

Now, that doesn’t mean the polls aren’t flawed. I think they are. Emory political scientist Alan Abramowitz, in my view, debunks them quite convincingly. But it in this case, bad questions are the fault of the pollster, not the person who commissioned the surveys.

The post Dems Push Back Against FDL Polls, Hamsher Pushes Back Against Dems appeared first on The Faster Times.

What to make of his latest post?

“For months now, Bayh has been screaming at the top of his voice that the party needs to reorient toward a more popular, centrist agenda — one that emphasizes jobs and fiscal responsibility over health care and cap and trade. Neither the White House nor the Senate leadership has given him the response he wanted. Their bungling of what should have been a routine bipartisan jobs bill last week seems to have been the last straw….

Quitting the Senate was a no-lose move for the presidentially ambitious Bayh, since he can now crawl away from the political wreckage for a couple of years, plausibly alleging that he tried to steer the party in a different direction — and then be perfectly positioned to mount a centrist primary challenge to Obama in 2012, depending on circumstances.

There will be those Democrats who bid good riddance to Bayh and his coal-burning-state apostasy about cap and trade, etc. If so, they won’t need a very big tent to contain the celebration. On a more pragmatic view, Bayh’s dramatic vote of no-confidence in his own party’s leadership looks like another Massachusetts-sized political earthquake for the Democrats. Not only does it imperil the president’s short-term hopes of passing health care and other major legislation this year. It also makes it much more likely that the Republicans can pick up Bayh’s Senate seat in normally red Indiana and, with it, control of the Senate itself. If present trends continue, November could turn into a Republican rout.”

First, Lane has simply invented a false narrative here. No one believes that Bayh’s retirement is the beginning of an insurgent campaign to wrest the Democratic nomination from President Obama in 2012. Such an idea is, on its face, preposterous. This is partly because an insurgent campaign from the right — within the Democratic party — is a phenomenon that simply does not exist. Of course, Lane is trying to push a purely fictitious narrative of his own invention into mainstream discussion. After all, if a member of the Washington Post editorial board is loudly proclaiming Bayh’s viability, then the notion of his candidacy must have some credibility.

Second, Lane seems to be encouraging Democrats both to focus more attention on the deficit and abandon efforts on health care reform. This, of course, is illogical. As conservative stalwart Rep. Paul Ryan readily acknowledges, the deficit cannot be addressed without making structural changes to the health care system.

Interestingly, Lane makes no mention of the blatant cynicism surrounding the manner in which Bayh chose to leave office — that is, waiting until one day before the filing deadline to announce his retirement. This maneuver, of course, makes a primary all but impossible, leaving state Democratic leaders to choose a new candidate. In other words, Bayh has willfully denied his constituents a chance to choose the Democratic nominee. I would love to see how Lane reconciles this manipulation with the brave, principled character he has depicted.

Lane’s latest drivel is a symptom of a larger problem in political punditry: worship of a warped notion of centrism. A centrist, as traditionally understood, defies the dogma and doctrines of ideology. But a self-styled “centrist” who believes that, by defying one’s political party you have done something intrinsically noble, is a different breed altogether. This centrism, as Lane’s post demonstrates, can itself become an ideology, with its own brand of intellectual laziness and dishonesty.

The post Evan Bayh in 2012? Chuck Lane Descends into Self-Parody appeared first on The Faster Times.

“’After all these years, my passion for service to my fellow citizens is undiminished, but my desire to do so in Congress has waned,’ he said.

“’My decision was not motivated by political concern,’” he added. “’Even in the current challenging environment, I am confident in my prospects for re-election.’”

The announcement, needless to say, comes as somewhat of a shock — and a blow to Democrats.

The post Breaking: Evan Bayh (D) Retiring appeared first on The Faster Times.

Rep. Dave Camp, R-Mich., as quoted in the Wall Street Journal:

“‘Mr. Obama said he’ll challenge Republicans to explain how they will cover large numbers of uninsured people. But Rep. Dave Camp (R., Mich.) rejected that standard. ‘We didn’t portray our bill as being universal coverage,” he said in an interview. “We never attempted to do that.’”

Well, this is somewhat of a departure from the standard GOP line, which contends that Republicans would love to do some version of comprehensive reform and cover the uninsured. They just can’t sign onto the Democrats’ bill.

Anyone who has watched this debate knows this is crap. One need only look at history: when was the last time a Republican president proposed a comprehensive health care reform bill — or made any effort to cover the uninsured? (Answer: Richard Nixon.) When was the last time Republicans, when they controlled Congress, tried to pass comprehensive health care legislation? Never.

Camp, to his credit, is simply stating the truth: Republicans don’t want to see comprehensive health care reform enacted. And covering the uninsured just isn’t their thing. After all, why would you want to cover the uninsured when you could just cut taxes?

The post Camp (R): Republicans Never Wanted to Cover the Uninsured! appeared first on The Faster Times.

So far, no Republican with the stature to defeat Bayh had jumped into the race. John Hostettler, a discredited former GOP House member who lost to Brad Ellsworth (D) in a 2006 landslide despite representing an overwhelmingly Republican district, is already seeking the nomination.

The post Bayh (D) to Face Top-Tier Challenger appeared first on The Faster Times.