A poll released over the weekend by Public Policy Polling (D) gave Democrats quite a scare; it showed Republican Scott Brown leading Democrat Martha Coakley in the race for U.S. Senate, 48% to 47%. Needless to say, a loss in Massachusetts would be a devastating blow to the Democrats, and possibly doom health care reform (by denying the Dems a 60th vote).
However, the Boston Globe released a poll Sunday morning showing a 15 point spread for Coakley (D), 53% to 36%. As Josh Marshall points out, PPP nailed the New Jersey gubernatorial race, but had some serious egg on its face with respect to the special election in NY-23.
There is one thing pollsters seem to agree on: the lower the turnout, the better Brown does. This, of course, is a symptom of the enthusiasm gap, in which disillusioned Democrats stay home while a riled GOP base comes out in droves. Of course, the gap has to be far wider than average for a Republican to win in Massachusetts. Still, it now seems indisputable that the possibility of a GOP pick-up in the Bay State cannot be dismissed out of hand.
Matthew Spieler
Matthew Spieler is a former policy analyst for Congressional Quarterly, where he covered health care, education, labor, and veterans’ affairs. A graduate of The George Washington University, he has also worked as a reporter for CQ covering ...
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