Can Harry Reid Survive Without Passing a Health Bill?

A few months ago, the chattering over using the budget reconciliation process to pass health care reform seemed to dissipate. But Sen. Harry Reid, D-Nev., reportedly raised the issue in a closed-door meeting with Senate Democrats last night. Under Senate rules, legislation brought to the floor under reconciliation — which was originally conceived to protect deficit reduction measures — cannot be filibustered.

If Joe Lieberman makes good on his promise to filibuster a bill with any form of a public option, and thus blocks a vote on final passage, Reid will essentially be left with two choices. He can either remove the offending provision providing for the public plan, or change course and use reconciliation.

Given Reid’s own political situation — low approval ratings and a possibly tough reelection fight in his home state — the reconciliation route seems to be the more likely path for him.

Consider this: President Obama won 55% of the vote in Nevada, a surprisingly strong showing for a Democratic presidential candidate. Given his tenuous political position, Reid needs to do all he can to keep Obama’s coalition intact for his own election. The public option, meanwhile, is popular in Nevada, according to this R2K poll. 80% of Democrats support it, while independents back the idea by a 50% to 39% margin. That same poll showed Reid losing to unknown candidates, with reelect numbers in the low forties. The survey, while a bit dated, is consistent with all the polling I’ve seen out of Nevada over the past year.

Reid cannot afford alienate Obama’s 2008 coalition, as Creigh Deeds did in Virginia. Stripping the bill of a public option tom attract the support of conservative Democrats would surely infuriate Democratic activists. With his reelect numbers, that’s a risk he cannot afford to take.

One caveat: if 10 or more Democrats are so opposed to using the reconciliation process for health care reform that they would then vote against the bill, this political calculus obviously falls apart.

From a political standpoint, however, Reid has every incentive to pass a health bill — by any means necessary — that placates progressives who have become disillusioned with his leadership. While using reconciliation rules to pass a health care overhaul may earn him some bad press on the editorial and op-ed pages, he may see it as essential to his electoral survival.