Two Filibusters on Health Care Reform?

Here’s something to consider as the Senate begins debate on health care legislation: Democrats will likely have to invoke cloture — that is, break a filibuster and end debate — twice.

Before the Senate considers a bill, the chamber must agree to a “motion to proceed” to the legislation. On non-controversial measures, this is done by unanimous consent, and no roll call vote is even necessary. However, the motion to proceed is debatable under Senate rules, so Republicans can filibuster it. And they will.

Sen. Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., however, appears quite confident he can keep his caucus together on that initial cloture vote. Thus, there will at least be a debate on the Senate floor on health care reform.

In order to pass health care reform legislation, however, Senate Democrats must invoke cloture again — this time, on the bill itself. Only then can they shut off debate and vote on passage. This is where Sen. Joe Lieberman, I-Conn., becomes a problem for Democrats. Lieberman has said he will likely vote for cloture on the motion to proceed to the bill. Yet if the amendment process comes to a close and the bill still contains a public option, he says he’ll join Republicans in filibustering the bill to block a vote on final passage.

Just to recap, Reid seems to have the votes needed to break the initial filibuster and begin debate. After that, the math gets trickier.