The Taliban Hydra in Pakistan is Down But Not Out

In Greek mythology the Hydra of Lerna was the guardian to the entrance of the Underworld. Even the mighty Heracles (Hercules in Roman) needed the help of his nephew to defeat the nine-headed serpent-like water beast, as whenever he sliced off one head two would grow back in its place; not so dissimilar to the Taliban Hydra of foot soldiers and their leaders. A popular version of the way Heracles and his nephew Iolaus defeated the Hydra of Lerna was by cauterising the stumps of the head once they were cut off.  Except there was one head that was immortal and once it was cut off it had to be buried under a rock.

Reports claim that the leader of the Pakistani Taliban, Baitullah Mehsud, was killed in a US drone attack on Wednesday, along with his second wife.  Ding dong the mass murderer is dead. While that is good news for Pakistan and its allies it doesn’t mean the Taliban will disappear or even be substantially weakened. It is confirmation that the US missile strikes are finally aiming right, the intelligence is getting better, is actually being shared and coordinated to great effect between the US and Pakistan. That is the real achievement.

In the case of any extremist militant group it is the ideology and all the vessels that feed it that provide sustenance to the immortal head: money, power, glory, religion, poverty, disillusionment and ignorance. It is essentially the clichéd ‘hearts and minds’ argument. Neither the US, NATO nor the Pakistanis are effectively cauterising the root causes of what sustains the Taliban. This in large part has to do with the fact that no one really has a fool-proof formula and chances are we never will. Pumping funds into Pakistan for “development” or “education” is always tricky due to the levels of corruption. This builds both suspicion and mistrust on the part of donor and recipient. Yet it is also clear that food, water, electricity, education, health, purpose and prospects could make a difference:

In North Waziristan, another Taliban-run tribal area along the Afghanistan border, most of the schools are now closed because of the ongoing violence and the fear of the U.S. drone attacks. The Government Post Graduate College in Miranshah, the main city, once boasted 1,300 students who were studying for degrees in medicine and education.

“We have nothing else to do all day. And perhaps there is a certain charm and power to grow a beard, let your hair grow long and pick up a gun,” he said.

Bayar Khan Wazir attended the college before it closed. “Today, we have no more schools and we have no recreational facilities,” Wazir said. “So most of the students will now join the Taliban,” he said.

There will no doubt be disarray amongst the ranks of the Pakistani Taliban and their tear away factions while a new leader is chosen. But the Taliban Hydra  re-groups, gets fed and grows back. We saw that after the invasion in 2001. The Afghan Taliban have already declared they are ‘unhurt’ by Mehsud’s death. Bravado or not, a head has been chopped off but its base has not been cauterised. While the media groups “the Taliban” under one label for ease of reading it is not as homogeneous or cohesive as we are often led to think. Some reports even suggest that British forces have been used inadvertently by rival Taliban factions to assassinate rival commanders. A vacuum has been left and no doubt the infighting will be vicious. If there is any way Pakistan and its Western allies can take advantage of the vacuum and create further instability they should.

Will any of this make any real difference to western troops on the ground in Afghanistan? Highly unlikely. Three British soldiers were killed today in southern Afghanistan. It is, however, a major coup for the Pakistanis. They managed to get their Public Enemy No. 1, with the help of a US drone. If anything Mehsud’s death is an indication of better cooperation between Pakistan and the US and that is promising. However, Pakistan is not pursuing all the Taliban factions with equal force and that is what continues to worry the top brass in Washington and London.

Just like the immortal head that was buried by Heracles but eventually got its revenge, Pakistanis will now have to sit and wait for the revenge that will no doubt come, probably in the form of another horrific suicide attack. The people of Pakistan are not safer now that he is dead, as suggested by White House spokesman Robert Gibbs. After all Qari Hussein, the suicide bombing mastermind  is not dead. In the last two years 2,000 Pakistanis were killed in suicide bombings. Safer is a long way off.

Photo link to Hydra

Photo link to Mehsud