Big Blue will bask in its current glory for another week or two, but then the free agent market opens, the draft boards come out. I decided to take this time and look back at our NFL Training Camp Power Rankings, because, as a Redskins fan, I enjoy wallowing on my own mistakes, like that time I convinced Anthony that Steve Breaston would be a key piece in the Chiefs unrelenting passing attack.

The numbers in parenthesis are where the TFT staff thought these teams were in the preseason, and the numbers in front are where we think they are now.

1. Giants, 13-7 (10): Still not saying anything.

Just kidding. You’re not gonna be able to shut me up this time.

Now, I’m not one to over-dramatize the narrative of sports seasons, since 1) they’re generally dramatic enough as it is and 2) I think it’s kind of pretentious to narrate another guy’s life (especially an athlete’s, whose pain and struggles are often of the most private nature) with a storyline I cooked up in my head and ascribe it as fact. That said, there’s really no understating the amount of adversity these Giants went through to their second Lombardi Trophy in four years, and what their defining trait as winners (heart) says about this NFL season as a whole. Coming off a lockout (remember that?) the talent level is always going to take a dip. The team that guts it out the most will win. In simple terms, you have heart, you are the best. But that was never the intended narrative for this team, because everybody forgot to account for the heart. To put it in perspective: remember back in August, when “Sanchez or Eli?” was a legitimate question, G-Men were dropping like flies to torn ACLs and GM Jerry Reese had turned in what remains one of the more atrocious performances of his tenure — lest you’ve forgotten, which I can’t blame you, he released valued linemen Shaun O’Hara and Rich Seubert, while letting WR Steve Smith and TE Kevin Boss walk (to the Eagles and Raiders, respectively) and seemingly provoking the ire of DE Osi Umenyiora. And then there was that whole non-issue of Eli saying he was in the same class as Brady that everyone blew up into a travesty three years after he ruined Tom’s perfect season in the Super Bowl. This is a team that every sportswriter in America (and if that is an exaggeration, it’s a small one) wrote off before the season even began; the New York media in particular seemed eager to pay the Giants the bare minimum of attention in favor of another season of Rex Ryan jibber-jabber.

And yes, they played like garbage at some really inopportune moments and blew some gimme games (that second Eagles tilt and the unconscionable home loss to Clipboard Jesus stand out) and caught some big, big, BIG breaks to get there (Romo overthrowing Miles Austin to seal the Cowboys game in Week 14 must be mentioned: he makes that throw, the Giants stay home for the playoffs. But then again, if he had made that throw, he would never have been Tony Romo to begin with). But right around the Jets game (about the same time I started not saying anything during these previews) there was some kind of visible swagger about the Giants. They were coming to life and reclaiming the city that had left them for the scrap heap: Eli was hitting his stride; the lagging running game and iffy defense were tightening up, Victor Cruz was shaking his ass and they kept winning and winning and winning; it was the sort of thing where you knew they were going to do but didn’t quite believe they would because every time you read about football it’s all about numbers and everybody forgets to account for the motherfucking intagibles. Plus, they couldn’t possibly pull this off twice, right?

Enter the intangibles. To reiterate from a few weeks ago: that’s why Tim Tebow beat the Steelers in overtime in the playoffs, that’s why stacked teams like the Jets and Cowboys fell apart down the stretch, and that’s why Eli Manning kicked Tom Brady’s ass in two Super Bowls. That’s why “Sanchez or Eli” has now become ”Eli or Peyton” and people are seriously considering the question before they answer (for the record: the case for Eli is a compelling one, especially if you measure by titles, the nature of those championships – 18-1 is a biggie - and the fact that a New York champion achieves greater stature in the public eye by default. But Eli doesn’t quite control the offense like Peyton at his peak, this season showed us that Peyton was clearly playing – and succeeding – with a worse team than Eli ever had, and – most important - Eli has never beaten Peyton. That said, Eli doesn’t seem to have hit his prime yet. For now, the answer’s still Peyton, but that will change very soon). That’s why people are saying Coughlin just punched his Canton ticket after they called for his head as early as two months ago. That’s why this ragamuffin team that nobody took seriously beat the golden coach-QB combo of the NFL and forced Tom Brady into survival mode when it mattered most. They made Gisele cry. Granted, the Super Bowl itself was pretty fucking ugly (it wouldn’t be the Giants if they didn’t play like dog shit for an extended period of time, hence two unanswered Brady drives of 96 and 74 yards for TDs), but the team with the most heart won. They didn’t have the numbers, didn’t necessarily have the stats, but they wanted it more, and that’s why the New York Giants are the Super Bowl champions. I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again: hardware don’t lie. Meet the best football team in the NFL.

Sorry, I’ve been holding that in for a while. –Anthony

2. Packers, 15-2 (1): As long as they have Aaron Rodgers and Clay Matthews, they’ll be contenders. Jennings, Finley, and Nelson don’t hurt either. –Joe

3. Saints, 14-3 (tied at 5): Hey, if you have to go, losing one of the tightest, most exciting games in NFL history isn’t a bad way to do it. Right, Saints fans? Can I get a ‘Who Dat’? Just a soft one? No? I’ll leave you guys alone now. –Matt

4. Patriots, 14-4 (3): Brady and Belichick used the 2008 Super Bowl letdown as supreme motivation to scrape back to the big game. That duo will be a year older in 2012, and so will Vince Wilfork, Deion Branch and the offensive line. They’re always favorites to make the playoffs with B and B, but will awful recent drafts keep them from making a run? –Joe

5. 49ers, 15-3 (21): Was the NFL’s dirtiest secret in 2011 that Jim Harbaugh turned out to be, beneath all the rah-rah, kind of an asshole? I think so. Granted, an asshole with skills, as he singlehandedly revitalized football in San Fran and nearly got Alex Smith to a Super Bowl, but still: an asshole? I think it was. –Anthony

6. Ravens, 13-5 (4): What? They found the zombified remains of Billy Cundiff in an abandoned building covered in lye and a tarp? Quick, somebody get Major Crimes on this sh(eeeeeeeiiiiiii)it. –Anthony

7. Lions, 10-7 (15): Young, hungry and well-coached, the Lions will join the Giants, 49ers, Packers, Saints, and Eagles as the consensus 2012 NFC playoff picks. –Joe

8. Texans, 11-7 (16): Nearly every major player on their roster suffered a serious injury at some point in the season. Their best player on defense, Mario Williams, spent nearly a year on IR and they were still a top five unit, only dipping, briefly, after Wade Philips got surgery. Then they nearly beat the Ravens with a hobbled Andre Johnson and Fordham’s finest, TJ Yates, under center. –Matt

9. Bengals, 9-8 (31): They’ll get better. Too lazy to make a ginger joke. Deal with it. –Anthony

10. Steelers, 12-5 (tied at 5): Weird season that ended in the weirdest possible way. Could this be the beginning of Big Ben’s long, strange decline? In the same way that Belichick hasn’t won a Super Bowl since Spygate, Roethlisberger post-scandal has broken his nose quite magnificently, lost the big game to Rodgers, torqued his leg a full 180 degrees, and lost on the first play of the new overtime rules ever to Tim Tebow. Worth considering as we move into next year. –Anthony

11. Bears, 8-8 (13): They were damn good before Cutler and Forte went down. Can they get their groove back in a crowded NFC field? –Joe

12. Falcons, 10-7 (9): With the Andy Reid’s days in Philly numbered, another team must become too talented to miss the playoffs, but not talented enough to do anything once they get there. The Atlanta Falcons are that team. –Matt

13. Eagles, 8-8 (2): They didn’t get Spagnuolo, thank you Baby Jesus. Even so, it’s hard to imagine them not getting noticeably better with a proper offseason to gel. The mystique of Michael Vick seems to have worn off, but if the rest of the team operates at its peak they’re going to be very hard to stop. –Anthony

14. Chargers, 8-8 (11): The 7th Norv Turner sequel has Chargers fans demanding their money back. This is worse than Nicolas Cage franchise. –Joe

15. Jets, 8-8 (6): Will an 8-8 implosion and another Giants Super Bowl finally shut the Fat Boy up? Will it matter if they don’t find someone to replace Sanchez. –Joe

16. Titans, 9-7 (25): Every in Nashville has Manning-fever! Well, everyone except the Titans’ front office. –Matt

17. Cowboys, 8-8 (14): Something’s missing. Until they figure out what it is and fix it, expect more of the same. –Anthony

18. Broncos, 9-9 (26): The way John Elway is talking, Tebow might need a phone call from Dad to just make it out of training camp the starter. –Joe

19. Raiders, 8-8 (18): If they were smart, they’d cut Carson Palmer and go after someone else. Anyone else, really. –Joe

20. Seahawks, 7-9 (29): It could have been worse, all things considered. Oh, by the way, Joe and Matt? Now that there’s no Giants bad karma for me to evoke left in the season, here’s something else I never said: HIS NAME IS TARVARIS. WITH TWO R’S. GOD DAMN. Sorry. All better now. (I’ll spell his name right the moment his career QB rating breaks 80. –Matt) But yeah, these guys seem like they’re headed for an upswing. –Anthony

21. Panthers, 6-10 (30): Remember Jimmy Clausen? I think he’s their fourth string QB now, and their 3^rd string is DeAngelo Williams in the wildcat. Carolina’s defense sucked before Jon Beason got injured, and without him, it was ugly. Nearly everyone over them in the draft is going offense, so they’ll be able to snatch up the best defensive player in the draft without giving anything up. Also, I know this isn’t the right time, but Cam Newton, you had me at hello. –Matt

22. Cardinals, 8-8 (20): Bullshit, these guys finished at .500? Who is this team’s quarterback again? I legitimately can’t remember. I know they had Kevin Kolb at one point, but given that Larry Fitzgerald is still roaming the earth at night muttering to himself about God and puppies, it seems like they’re still in the market. Although, 8-8? Really? Fuck me. –Anthony

23. Dolphins, 6-10 (28): Who’s their QB? Matt Flynn? Peyton Manning? Two darn good options. Someone would be smart to send the Dolphins a mid-round pick for Matt Moore. –Joe

24. Redskins, 6-10 (23): They need a quarterback. Literally, that is all they need to become competitive. That, and Dan Synder to spontaneously combust. But a quarterback is a good start. –Anthony

25. Bills, 6-10 (27): Ryan Fitzpatrick isn’t the answer, but since they gave him 60 million dollars, he’ll have to be. Will this team ever be relevant? –Joe

26. Chiefs, 7-9 (8): Romeo Crennel knows how to win over a locker room with his “fat Herman Cain” impression. –Joe

27. Vikings, 3-13 (17): Adrian Peterson won’t be 100 percent until 2013 and the receivers and defense are awful, but at least Christian Ponder is a handsome young man! –Joe

28. Browns, 4-12 (22): Who in the fuck is Pat Shurmur? I still don’t know. –Anthony

29. Jaguars, 5-11 (24): Reports are less conclusive, but, as I understand it, Jacksonville has also had an outbreak of Manning-fever, though it could also be serious case of please-don’t-say-Blaine-Gabbert-is-the-future-itis. –Matt

30. Bucs, 4-12 (12): Quarterback position seems to be okay, Blount is a beast, and they’ve got Ronde Barber locking down the left side of the defense, so if they just get a wide receiver, a tight end, some safeties, a strong side linebacker, a weak side linebacker, a middle linebacker, a nickel linebacker, a right corner, a nickel corner, a right tackle, a left tackle, a defensive tackle, offensive guards, defensive ends, a punter, a kicker, and a return specialist, they might finish 3^rd in the NFC South next year. –Matt

31. Rams, 2-14 (19): They have the power of the ‘stache behind them now (even if Miami was the better choice for Fisher), but a good coach does not a good team make. Bradford will have to rebound quick from a crappy season and all those pieces St. Louis has been collecting will have to gel, and fast, for this to be worth it. –Anthony

32. Colts, 2-14 (7): Watching the Manningless Colts implode was fun for a little while, well, okay, a really long while, but I’m glad they’ll have a game-changing prospect whose will to win crumbles when it matters most waiting in the wings.  –Matt

2001: The Giants didn’t make the Super Bowl again for a decade, by which time I was 13-ars-old with a buzzed head. I resembled a short, lumpy snowman, just waiting for puberty to come to melt off the rolls and give me a bigger carrot stick. The Giants had rode Kerry Collins’ resurrection and Tiki Barber’s pre-douchebag emergence to the Big Game and faced the Ravens’ legendary 2000 D, which was especially terrifying since Ray Lewis was still openly killing people. I’d skip school the week before the game to listen to Mike and the Mad Dog drool over the Giants chances on the radio, after they’d trounced the high-powered Vikings 41-0 in the NFC Championship Game. I knew that the Giants Super Bowl run was my single respite in a hellish middle school marathon, and I milked it for all its worth, making sure that the game occupied my attention at all times. When classmates who hadn’t sat through the past 7 years of utter mediocrity started becoming bandwagon fans before the big game, I publicly mocked their last of knowledge. Can you even name 1 starter on the Giants offensive line? The Giants lost 34-10, it was never close, and I started devising a plan to start a new life as a stow away on John Madden’s bus.

2008: I was in a sophomore in college, Editor of the school newspaper, leader of the ultimate Frisbee team, and threw weekly parties in a big party house in campus. I knew almost everyone. If you were starring in a college comedy that took place at Sarah Lawrence, I was involved in the plot in a fringe capacity. It was a joyous time for everyone but my liver. I was very happy. I threw a Super Bowl Party. After the living room big screen broke in the 1^st quarter, the 13 other heterosexual males at Sarah Lawrence packed into my big bedroom to watch on my flatscreen. Right before the Tyree catch, I started passing a 1.75 L handle of Goldshlager around the room, after the Tyree catch, I made everyone keep passing around and drinking from the bottle until I chugged the last drops as the clock hit 0:00. Delirious, absolutely delirious, I took to the streets screaming and, for once, understood my dad. It might not have felt as good as falling in love with my college girlfriend, Hadley, but it was damn close, and I knew that my first true Giants Championship could never be tainted in the way that a first love could. I would have this completely and totally, forever.

2012: Like the 2011-2012 Giants, it never seemed like my Manhattan life would never be anything but a rollercoaster of triumph and sloppy mistakes. In 2012, it came together swiftly, and so did this crazy team.. By the morning of Xmas Eve, after watching Paul Pierre and Manning drag the team’s lifeless corpse to a 7-7 record, all you could say was, “Well, it’d still be fun for them to make the playoffs.” And suddenly, starting that day against Jets, everything clicked again. You could even see it on the sidelines, where players would bob their heads in that cocky, focused 2008 way.  After 5 sudden death games, we face the Patriots again. We would have had a better chance against Joe Flacco and the Ravens, but Giants-Patriots is the game Giants fans—and everyone else—wanted. You know my pick already, but let’s do this thing:

Giants (+3) over PATRIOTS

The sheer number of people picking the Giants terrifies me, but I also think that Vegas made a big mistake opening at 3.5 and it should have opened at 2. If you consider Brady and Eli a wash based on how they’re playing right now, the Patriots don’t have very good reasons to be favored in this game.

It’s just the matchups. (And the fact that the Patriots defense is awful.) Consider:

Besides for Vince Wilfork, who’s playing out of his mind, the Patriots can’t generate any pressure. That means that they’ll need to blitz if they want to see the Eli Manning face, leaving some of the following matchups in single coverage:

-Hakeem Nicks/Mario Manningham against Sterling Moore/Devin McCourty on the outside. McCourty has been a disaster in coverage this year. Usually sophomore years this disastrous involve a coke addiction with a too few many MDMA nights sprinkled in. Moore was cut from the Raiders practice squad earlier this year. Manningham and Nicks—especially Nicks—are scary out wide. This has to worry Pats fans.

-Julian Edelman vs. Victor Cruz in the slot. Anquan Boldin bitched Edelman in the AFC Championship game. Do you think that Edelman is going to be able to jam Cruz’ salsa moves at the line? You think he’s going to be able to stay with him through a double-move up the seam? Good fucking luck.

And when those guys slip up, who the fuck is playing safety for the Patriots? Patrick Chung? C’mon. Belichick is an amazing game planner, but how the fuck do you game plan when you’re losing every matchup on the field? Even Giants TEs Jake Ballard and Travis Beckham are potential matchup problems.

Do the Patriots have matchup advantages? They do, but those advantages were much bigger when Gronkowski was healthy. Gronk will play, but there’s no way he’ll be effective—it’s just not an injury you can recover from in 2 weeks. That leaves Wes Welker and Aaron Hernandez as the Patriots biggest threats. The Giants will chip both Hernandez and Welker with Jason Pierre-Paul and Mathias Kiwanuka at the line, with physical safeties Deion Grant and Antrel Rolle waiting to get a 2^nd shot in and cover them downfield, with Kenny Phillips providing help over the top.

The Patriots won’t have much success throwing at Corey Webster, so they’ll pick on Aaron Ross, who usually gets harassed like he’s a middle schooler named Gaylord Bieber. But who the hell do the Pats have to beat him? Maybe Deion Grant could have a big day against Ross, but he’ll find himself matched up against Webster at least half the time. Don’t get me wrong: the Patriots are going to score points. But if the Giants pass rush shows up—which they should—their secondary isn’t going to have a ton of problems. Each team will be able to run the ball with moderate success against nickel packages. There’s only one pick I can make here, so let’s fucking do it.

Giants 37-Patriots 28

Now, for the really fun part: prop bets! Here are some sweet ones that I’ve already bet on or will soon:

MVP

Eli (3-2) and Brady (1-1) have such shitty odds that you should just bet the money line instead. Here are some good long shots:

The Entire Giants Nascar Unit: Kiwi (300-1), Osi (100-1), Tuck (90-1), JPP (35-1). 3 sacks and 1 or 2 huge forced turnovers could get a pass rusher the MVP.

Also Vince Wilfork (66-1) who’s playing out of his mind right now.

Hakeem Nicks (15-1) could demolish Moore and McCourty so badly (200+ yards, 3 scores) that he gets it over Eli. But it’d have to be a dominant performance.

Deion Branch (30-1) because he’s done it before and because Aaron Ross might have a total mental breakdown any game now.

Player Props

Eli Manning 381-400 passing yards (10-1). Gut feeling.

Tom Brady 361-380 passing yards (10-1). He’ll be throwing a lot on a fast turf.

First TD

Jake Ballard (12-1) and Mario Manningham (12-1) will have favorable matchups while the Pats concentrate on shutting down Cruz and Nicks.

Any other player (10-1) allows for some wacky special teams/defensive revelry.

Will Peyton Manning Play in the WEEK 1 of 2012-13 NFL Season with any NFL team?

Yes (-140). Let’s stop the chatter, he’s fucking coming back.

Unlike most of the other top QBs of his generation, who are polished pocket passers, Eli can take a hit, and while he doesn’t exhibit Ben Roethlisburger’s concrete endurance or Aaron Rodgers ability to walk off a sack like it was nothing, the pain on his face bellies a strength that is, in a way, more terrifying. Saddled with an offensive line built for run-blocking and not much else, Eli expects to be hit. While the other elite signal callers can plant their feet, scan the field, and hit the open man without fear of a grass stain, Eli knows he’s going to eat it and it won’t be one big hit that leaves him a bit woozy. No, they’re coming early and often. Peyton and Brady see sacks as either a profound failure on their part to get the ball out fast enough, or a dagger getting thrust into their backs by their linemen. For Eli, a sacks, tipped balls, and fumbles are things that happen when you play football.  Protection and ball security are luxuries. It’s impossible for a defense to phase a man like that. No matter what gets thrown at him, he’s seen worse.

The Faster Times

Super Bowl Prediction: Brady Will Be Sacked, Matt Will Get Crunk

NFL Pro Bowl 2012: Where the Game Goes Wrong

NFL Playoff Power Rankings: Pre Super Bowl Roundup

Open-faced BradyManningwhich: The Giants offensive line has always seemed a little uncomfortable when it drops into pass coverage, and with Vince Wilfork on the warpath, Eli is going have a rough day ahead of him. While the Patriot’s O-line has shown some more gumption, the Giant’s rushers are tearing it up. Chris Canty looked inexplicably unstoppable in the Championship game, and Jason Pierre-Paul seemingly teleports and destroys to whomever is holding the ball, which, with the Patriots, is usually Tom Brady. Relish the opportunity to see two famous people you dislike suffer physical pain.

Tom Coughlin, the Tebow of Coaches: When Tom Coughlin took the Giants job, he promised two things; the Giants would never have another mid season collapse, and his staff would stop the rampant ACL tears that plagued the organization. He failed to do both these things. His players seem to hate him and disregard everything he tells them, and everyone that leaves the team dumps pounds of dirty laundry into the streets. And yet, he’s sent them to the Super Bowl twice. The first time made some sense, what with Justin Tuck in top form and Michael Strahan putting it all on the line, but it was their first year without Tikki Barber. Without their best player on offense, they got better. (That said, their best player on offense was kind of a dick) This year’s roster looked particularly weak and overmatched. Big name players were hurting, and they lost Steve Smith and Kevin Boss, two key parts of their passing attack, to free agency. Then the playoffs came, and they started pasting fools. They looked unstoppable against the league’s top teams, a few of whom beat them in the regular season. Why did this happen? The same reason the Broncos beat the best defense in the NFL; God has a sense of humor.

Peyton’s Pain: Tall, fit, and oozing poise, Peyton Manning looked like one of the best quarterbacks in the history of the game before he became one. NFL MVP a record four times, he’s dominated the game like few others. Except, you know, when it’s really important. He spent the 2011 season watching the franchise he built fall apart, Cam Newton wreck his rookie records, and his shorter, (allegedly) mouth breathing, vaguely fetus-like younger brother establish himself as a clutch post-season quarterback par excellence. From every angle, Eli’s accomplishments in the playoffs dwarf the elder Manning. Peyton had to outgun Rex Grossman for his first ring, while Eli was David to Brady’s Goliath, a hulking touchdown machine that piles on points because it hates you. Likewise, in Peyton’s second run, he brushed middle-lower-class QBs Joe Flacco and Mark Sanchez off his shoulders like ants, but imploded when he ran into an elite competitor, Drew Brees. Eli’s play against the former champs in Green Bay, one of the toughest stadiums in the league, just plain shamed Aaron Rodgers, a shoe in for this season MVP. It was painful. Finally, he got ground into pulp by the 49ers, and still pulled off the final drive to send the Giants to Super Bowl XLVI, forcing sports writers to admit that, yeah, he’s a pretty good quarterback. That all said…

Eli Manning Will Never Not Be Funny: His helmet looks too big, he makes funny faces whenever he gets hit, and he gets hit all the time. I remember one moment in the NFC championship; Eli was leading the Giants up the field in overtime. The 49ers dropped him for the sixth time. He stood up, his helmet askew and his mouth covered by his oversized chinstrap. Drenched in mud, he desperately called for a timeout, his curled hands barely able to form a “T.” It was pitiful, sad, and easily funniest thing I’d seen in months. In the offseason, when the inevitable Peyton vs. Eli comparisons pour into blogosphere, I’ll snicker every time I see the title, even if Eli wins a second ring. Despite the mounting evidence on Eli side, it’s an absurd question. You know that Peyton still sits at the head of the table at Thanksgiving, Archie can’t remember if his other son plays for the Jets, the Giants, or the Buffalo Bills, and Eli’s mom still calls him up to tell he’s “her very special boy” every time he loses a game. It’s totally ridiculous to think otherwise, even if Eli wins two Super Bowls and holds the NFL record for 4^th quarter touchdowns in a season.

A Patriots Win Will End Spygate Forever: There are two people who talk about spygate; Patriots fans who want to make sure you’re aware that Bill Belichick is 64-16 since he stopped video taping other teams’ practices and ESPN bloggers who haven’t met their traffic quota. This win will quiet the Pats fans down, though I don’t see those “… but remember SPYGATE!” posts ending anytime soon.

Chad Occhocinco Might Get a Ring: Unless Belichick cuts him before kickoff, that is. One of the most entertain players of his generation, and an incredible wide receiver back in his prime, it’d be fun to see a highlight reel of his touchdown dances get capped off with him celebrating a Super Bowl victory, so long as no other Patriots players get in the frame. Sure, he’ll play 3 downs and finish with zero catches, (since for Occho, embracing “the Patriot way” means sitting the bench and high-fiving everyone within fifteen feet of him) but, he’ll nail his post-victory interview anyway.

The Game Might Actually Be Kind of Good: The Patriots’ and the Giants’ last game was a nail biter that came down to the last the drive. While we can argue about who wants it more, Brady vs. Giants secondary, etc., it’s a dead even matchup. Some of that confusion comes from the differing strengths of their schedules, some from their varying play styles, but the big reason its difficult to pick a clear favorite is because they’re both really good football teams. If you can ignore the color of the uniforms and Cris Collinsworth’ Bradygasms, it’ll be a damn good time.

More Faster Football

Super Bowl Prediction: Brady Will Be Sacked, Matt Will Get Crunk

NFL Pro Bowl 2012: Where the Game Goes Wrong

NFL Playoff Power Rankings: Pre Super Bowl Roundup

To answer that last one; Fuck Yes.

As part of TFT’s ongoing coverage of the Super Bowl and ketamine use, I’ve drawn up this drinking game. It might kill you, but it’ll also make the pain go away.

1 drink every time anyone says David Tyree, or helmet catch (this includes pregame). 3 drinks if they replay the clip

1 drink for every Manning face. E.G., these

1 drink for every sack. If the sack results in a turnover (sack-fumble, failed fourth down conversion), finish your drink

1 drink every time a camera shows Tom Brady yelling at his teammates. If it happens after a play that resulted in positive yardage, finish your drink. If it happens after a blown play that was clearly his fault, finish your drink.

1 drink every time someone says they’re “just watching the game for the ads.” If they say “I’m just watching for the halftime show,” gut them.

3 drinks if a coach challenges a spot. If it wasn’t even 3^rd down, finish your drink.

1 drink for every interception Eli throws after his second.

2 drinks for every interception Tom Brady throws

1 drink for every mention of Tim Tebow, 2 drinks if someone uses his name as a verb or adjective.

1 drink for every fumble, plus 2 drinks if it’s Ben Jarvis Green-Ellis. When the Patriots fans around you scream that it’s the first fumble of his career, finish your drink.

1 drink every time Brady runs, plus 1 if he gets a first down, plus 2 if he’s manhandled before he can slide.

1 bump of special K for intentional grounding.

Drink continuously during Madonna’s performance. A keg stand is preferable. It is acceptable to cry during this part of the broadcast, so long as the drinking continues.

1 drink for every after-the-play-scuffle/fight. Plus 2 drinks if Al Michaels and Cris Collinsworth deride the players for acting immature, and plus 5 drinks if they compliment them for “setting a physical tone.”

1 drink if anyone misses a field goal. If they miss a PAT, finish your drink.

If Cris Collinsworth says, “you always have to take points on the road,” finish your drink.

If either quarterback gives up a safety, finish your drink. If it’s Brady, call him a dumbass bitch. If it’s Eli Manning, you must say “Oh no, not again!”

All drinks are cumulative. If Tom Brady throws an interception to a Giants player, who then fumbles it on the return prompting Eli to make a Manning Face, that’s four drinks.

Super Bowl Score Prediction: Giants 3, Patriots 2

I hope so anyway.

As a Redskins fan, I haven’t had much to cheer about. The last time I got excited about this team was 2007, during the Pro Bowl. Early in the day, a pass went to Reggie Wayne, but he saw ‘Skins safety Sean Taylor coming at him and just let the ball drop. Later, in the third quarter, Bill Belichick called punter-sneak. Buffalo Bills punter Brian Moorman nearly made it to the first down marker, but Taylor shot down the field and plastered him to the grass. It wasn’t a Pro Bowl hit. Taylor showed up to play.

The Pro Bowl’s real draw is the all out media assault that takes place beforehand. Chris Cooley and Jason Witten fishing. Chad Occhocinco filming awkward interviews with his Darrell Revis. The mismatched helmets. Then there’s the unique opportunity to see what would happen if Larry Fitzgerald and Drew Brees were on the same team, but really, this isn’t football. There’s no blitzing, they’re forced to play a 4-3 defense and there’s no pressing on the corners, essentially telling the defense that they can’t play. Some players skip out on the free vacation and exposure just because it’s such a joke.

With rule changes transforming the game into an all out aerial assault, the Pro Bowl is completely unrecognizable as football. The teams are picked from the winner of a league wide popularity contest, which Ben Roethlisberger and Philip Rivers manage to win somehow. Moving it to the Sunday before the Super Bowl helped in some way; its builds up anticipation for most intense game of the year by teasing the audience with a subpar product, sort of like when they have midget wrestling before a boxing match.

Injuries are the major concern. I think they should scrap the entire game. The linemen just stand there slapping each other and no one tackles. The audience sees the best QBs in the game throw hitch routes. It’s not worth the trouble.

My idea is simple. Break everyone up into 7 man squads and play flag football. The catch is everyone has to be out of position. Dwight Freeney tossing bombs over Calvin Johnson to a wide-open Andy Dalton? Sign me up. What we have now is completely unwatchable.

1. Giants, 12-7: I’m. Not. Saying. Anything. –Anthony

2. Patriots, 15-3: Dragging this fabulously flawed Patriots team to the Super Bowl might be Belichick and Brady’s best performance yet. Make no mistake: the way the Pats have performed in the draft and free agency, they never should have been here. They’ve brought in more busts than Canton. Yet they’ve made the big game with a band-aid team, relying on scrappy former-5th round pick Julian Edelman for 30 snaps on BOTH sides of the ball and undrafted free agents like Sterling Moore to save the season. Give serious credit to Vince Wilfork, Rob Gronkowski, Wes Welker, Aaron Hernandez, and the offensive line, too. It’s simply amazing that this team has a 50-50 shot at a Super Bowl Championship with 7 above-average players, Brady and Belichick. As long as that latter duo remains in Foxboro, the Pats will remain contenders. –Joe

3. Packers, 15-2: It’s kind of hard to piece together what happened to Green Bay other than the fact that they were off their game. And yes, Aaron Rodgers didn’t play between Christmas and the Divisional Round, but it’s kind of hard to argue against letting his backup have the best single quarterbacking performance in Green Bay history. I don’t know, I’ll be damned if I can analyze this one, and double-damned if I make a coherent attempt to try. –Anthony

4. 49ers, 14-5: Alex Smith was mediocre in the NFC Championship Game, but he was facing a great pass rush with one great receiver (Vernon Davis), one average receiver (Michael Crabtree), and a whole lot of ugly after that (namely Kyle Williams). He deserves a shiny new contract, and he’ll get it. The defense will only get better, and Jim Harbaugh is building an absolutely fantastic program in San Fran. They’ll enter 2012 championed as a conference heavyweight along with the Giants, Packers, Saints, and (inevitably) the Eagles. –Joe

5. Saints, 14-5: If you have one of the greatest offensives ever, and you lose a quarterback duel to Alex Smith, someone has got to go. Gregg Williams has his ups and downs, but his playcalling was absurb. To this day, I can’t figure out why someone sends an 8 man blitz on 3^rd and long. So the opposition has to punt from five yards deeper than they would’ve if they threw an incompletion? Steve Spags is an enormous upgrade, and their defense is stacked to the gills with talented players. Saints fans have a lot to look forward to. –Matt

6. Ravens, 13-5: As many pundits have noted, Joe Flacco played a hell of a game against the Patriots (better, really, than Brady did). With that said, it’s hard to argue that Cam Cameron’s ludicrous playcalling, plus the somewhat porous play of the offensive line, put the Ravens in the position of having to kick the game into overtime in the first place. Give supreme credit to the Baltimore D for doing what it does best, but apart from Flacco, the offense was off its game the whole time. –Anthony

7. Lions, 10-7: Matt Stafford did some work to prove he’s more than a Megatron Long-Bomb Delivery System, and hey, if you gotta go, getting outgunned by the most productive offense in NFL history isn’t a bad way to do it. Despite the final score, it was neck and neck until there were 7 minutes left in the 4^th quarter. –Matt

8. Texans, 11-7: Not only did the Texans turn one of the worst defenses in the NFL into an elite unit, but they weathered injuries to marquee playmakers Arian Foster, Matt Schaub, Andre Johnson and Mario Williams. They nearly beat the Ravens with a rookie quarterback who went to Fordham. If Manning returns to the Colts, he may find that the once-cushy AFC South has found a bite. –Matt

9. Falcons, 10-7: You have to wonder whether a first-round playoff exit is the Falcons’ ceiling. Matt Ryan doesn’t look like he’ll ever be anything other than the 12th or 13th best QB in the NFL. Julius Jones will emerge as a dynamic playmaker, but Tony Gonzalez seems sure to decline, and Michael Turner hits the dreaded age of 30 in 3 weeks, and he’s carried the ball 1,299 times since he arrived in Atlanta 4 seasons ago. With John Abraham ageing on the defensive side of the ball, the Falcons are going to have to make some big moves to get over the hump. –Joe

10. Bengals, 9-8: With a core group of very green rookies, underperforming veterans (*cough* Cedric Benson *cough*), and a coach who seemed to determined to combust the team at all costs, the Bengals went 9-7 in one of the NFL’s toughest divisions, made the playoffs, and their quick exit was only the 3^rd most embarrassing loss of the postseason (#1: Steelers. #2: Falcons. #3: Bengals). They’ll face a more difficult schedule next year, but it was a pretty good year for a team that was supposed to go 2-14. –Matt

11. Steelers, 12-5: Regular season performance be damned, they lost to Tim Tebow, and it wasn’t even that big an upset. –Matt

12. Broncos, 9-9: Listening to John Elway and the Broncos players’ ambivalence about Tim Tebow following their thrashing at the hands of the Patriots, it’s become clear that Broncos’ fans believe in Tebow far more than the Broncos’ locker room and front office. Tebow will go into training camp as the starter, but Tebow’s struggles against defenses he was playing for a 2nd time is a very bad omen for next season. With a dynamic young defense and talented young playmakers on offense, the Broncos would be best-served trading Tebow to the Jaguars—who desperately need Tebow to fill seats—for a ransom and then doing whatever it takes to defeat the Seahawks in the Matt Flynn sweepstakes. –Joe

By Joe Lazauskas, Anthony Benigno and Matt Alberswerth

Then there’s Mass Luck, like an 80-degree March day that affects absolutely everyone. Mass Luck is wonderful because there are no limits to whom you can share your good luck with, but it holds no special significance to you. It’s not a light you can hold onto when you’re considering starting a trash can fire in the bathroom at your shitty job—even though there’s nothing waiting for you at home besides globby Chinese leftovers and bookmarked SexTube videos you’ve watched so many times that you have the dialogue memorized.

Both Individual Luck and Mass Luck can be great. When you experience top-notch Individual Luck—like true love or pure drugs—it’s absolute ecstasy that affirms that you are, in fact, the center of the universe. And everyone loves a premature Summer day that inspires an impromptu park picnic where attractive female friends gulp wine and sunbath in their bras. Individual Luck and Mass Luck are the most common forms of luck, and both, while wonderful, fall short. There’s something better: Collective Luck.

If you know a New York Giants fan, you’ve likely heard them exclaim, “I can’t believe this is happening again!” sometime over the course of the last six days. They also might have started giddily jumping up and down and clapping. That’s because all of us Giants fans are trying to explain something we can’t put into words: Collective Luck.

Collective Luck is extremely rare. Like Individual Luck, it makes you feel personally blessed, chosen and accomplished, and like Mass Luck, you can share the experience with other people. The magical run during the 2007-2008 playoffs made Giants fans’ feel like the universe’s chosen people, and we got to rejoice in our specialness together. Once it was over, we accepted that we would never experience anything like that again in our lifetimes. And we happily accepted that fact.

But now…it’s happening again. This playoff run has been incredible, an incomparable high, but…why? Why are we being blessed with such Collective Luck again? Either god really feels bad about that whole “New Jersey” thing…or there’s a greater narrative at play.

PATRIOTS (-7) over Ravens

Like a shirtless 19-year-old at Burning Man chugging orange juice in order to maximize his acid trip, I’ve been watching every football show possible this week to milk the Giants run for all it’s worth. As a result, I’ve seen the Patriots-Ravens game analyzed from every idiotic angle on ESPN, and it infuriates how much the Talking Heads keep fixating on the Ravens 33-14 trouncing of the Pats in Foxboro in the first round of the 2009 playoffs.

IT DOESN’T MATTER. What the hell does that game show you? The Patriots were brutally banged up, Brady had 6 different injuries and still didn’t trust his surgically repaired knee, and the Pats were still over three months from drafting the centerpieces of their offense—superhuman tight ends Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski. Brady turned the ball over 3 times in Pats territory in the first quarter, the Ravens jumped out to a 24-0 lead, and the game was over.

What does that game tell you about this matchup? Very little, unless you’re a Ravens fan planning to kidnap Hernandez and Gronkowski the night before the game, Celtic Pride-style. Brady isn’t going to hand the ball over 3 times in the first quarter, and chances are, Ray Rice isn’t going to bust an 82-yard touchdown on the game’s opening play again. You could argue that Joe Flacco will gain confidence having won a playoff game in Foxboro, but Flacco went just 4-10 for 34 yards and a pick in that game. And the last time the Ravens flew up to Foxboro, early in the 2010 season, they blew a big 2^nd half lead to lose 23-20 in OT.

I see the path to victory for the Ravens: they control the clock with Ray Rice, opening up the deep ball for Flacco and Torey Smith, hit a few big ones, punch Brady in the mouth and win because they’re the more physical team. It’s a compelling fantasy, but it’s just not lucky.

More likely? The Pats stuff the box to contain Rice, like they did against the Broncos, and wager that Flacco can’t beat them. Flacco hits a couple big plays but also makes the missteps we’ve come to expect. The Ravens defense pressures Brady and punishes Welker, but, without Ed Reed at full speed, get trounced up the seams by the Pats star tight ends.

You know that we’re watching a grand narrative unfold, and that narrative does not involve boring Joe Flacco getting revenge on the naysayers.

Patriots 30 Ravens 19

Giants (+2.5) over 49ERS

It terrifies me that everyone seems to be picking the Giants in this game. People are buying the Giants like they’re a $2 waffle iron on sale at Walmart on Black Friday morning. Could someone do me a favor and think that the 49ers are going to win this game, please?

Listen, I staked out my cushy, heated seat on the Giants bandwagon months ago. In fact, I’ve pretty much refused to budge from this bandwagon since I was 6 years old. So there’s no way in hell that you should read my pick and think that you’re getting anything close to objective advice. But here’s why I think the Giants will win:

1. The Giants passing game: The 49ers run defense had no peer this year, but their pass defense was barely above average according to Football Outsider’s DVOA metrics. Sure, their pass defense came in 8^th, but they were closer to the 24^th-ranked pass defense (Broncos) than the top pass D (Ravens). The Giants only run the ball to keep the pass rush honest. This offense is fueled by the right arm of Eli Manning.

Last week, Drew Brees threw for 466 yards and 4 TDs, scoring two dramatic, seemingly game-winning touchdowns in the last 4 minutes. If Alex Smith and Vernon Davis hadn’t temporarily transformed into the two most clutch players alive, we would have spent this week asking, “What the hell happened to the 49ers defense?”

What happened? Their overaggressive safeties took awful angles to the football, yielding big plays to the Saints speedy offense. Wait, who’s the best at turning bad angles into big touchdowns? Oh yeah, that’s Eli Manning, Victor Cruz, Hakeem Nicks and the Giants offense.

2. The Giants Pass Rush: Go back to re-watch the 49ers 16-6 Thanksgiving Night loss to the Ravens. See what happens to the 49ers offense when they face vicious penetration in the trenches. Now imagine Osi Umenyiora, Jason Pierre-Paul, Justin Tuck and Mathius Kiwanuka attacking Alex Smith for 4 quarters. Repeat.

3. The Narrative: In the year of Tebow, I can’t help but give credence to the idea that there’s a larger narrative at play. And while it’d be heartwarming watching two brothers face off in the Harbowl, you know that we’re heading far sexier. Giants-Pats II. The Chosen Team facing Belichick’s Revenge-Thirsty Assassins. Who could ask for anything more?

Giants 27 49ers 20

Last Week: 3-1

Playoffs 5-3

Giants @ 49ers: New York can’t run on the 49ers defense. Brandon Jacobs should drop into the Tebow if Patrick Willis lets him see the line of scrimmage. With little help from the run game, they’ll need to trust their veteran (veteran as in old) offensive line against the 49ers front seven; the nastiest one in football. They’ve dominated at the line all year, leading the league in rush defense and tallying 42 sacks (tied for 5^th in the league). They blow up protection schemes and shut down the play before it happens. The Giants are tied for 2^nd in the league in sacks with 48, but their run defense suffered. They’re 19^th overall against the run, having given up 11 runs over 20 yards, and 3 runs over 40 (putting them in the company of other terrible run stoppers such as the Eagles and the Colts). They’re going to get torn up inside. I used this same argument when I said that the Falcons would beat New York, but Frank Gore is better than Michael Turner and the entire team in San Francisco is better than Atlanta. 49ers take this one. Also, the Giants got blown out by the Redskins twice. How good can they be?

1. Patriots, 13-3 (4): Patriots-Giants again? This is a bad sequel to a blockbuster movie I didn’t even like that much in the first place. New England’s pass-attack is murderous in large part because no one wants to catch Gronk’s herpes (pornstar herpes are the worst herpes), and their ground-game got a huge boost from… Aaron Hernandez? This year’s Patriots lack the stout defense that characterized their first Super Bowl seasons of the Belichick era, or the offensive pop that made the 2007 team so easy to hate (and hard to bet against), but Brady is the definition of a playoff veteran, and he is two wins from scrubbing off the spygate scandal forever.  –Matt

2. 49ers, 13-3 (5): The three telling moments for the 49ers from Sunday’s game:
1. Donte Whitner’s paralyzing hit on Pierre Thomas at the 1-yard-line to force a fumble and prevent the Saints from scoring first blood. It wasn’t just Whitner. The 49ers attacked and hit intensely all day. This is the most physical defense we’ve seen since the 2000 Ravens. (Though their pass defense isn’t nearly as good.)

2. Alex Smith’s beautiful throw to Vernon Davis to score the game-winning touchdown, and Davis’ fantastic catch. Smith’s fantastic play against the Saints proved that this season wasn’t a fluke–Alex Smith has what it takes to win you a Super Bowl. I can’t believe I just typed those words.

3. Jim Harbaugh tightly hugging a sobbing Vernon Davis after the play. I don’t think any team loves their coach as much as the 49ers love Jim Harbaugh. There’s some Coach Eric Taylor shit going on in the Bay Area.

But after watching this past weekend of football, you have to wonder if the 49ers can stop the Giants passing attack and if Alex Smith can handle their rabid pass rush. It’s going to be a great game. -Joe

3. Giants, 9-7 (6): Nope. Not saying a thing. –Anthony

4. Ravens, 12-4 (3): Before we hand the Patriots this game by default, I’d like to point out that New England hasn’t played a team with a record over .500 since the Giants in week 9, and they lost that game. Joe Flacco and Ray Rice both looked shaky against the Texans, but Houston was the 2^nd best defense in the NFL this year. There’s enough talent in Baltimore’s receiving corps to generate problematic mismatches against Bill Belichick’s collection of wideouts and cast offs in the secondary, and Ray Lewis sure as shit isn’t going to let a tight end run all over him.  –Matt

Tim Tebow Bonus Round… Broncos, 8-8 (8): Tebowmania was certainly fun while it lasted, and with Elway having declared Timmy the starter going into Denver’s camp next season, we must now endure a whole new season of bullshit questions that have more or less already been answered. For all the questions about Tebow, all you need to know is this: he thrived (and that’s not just relatively speaking, he went 8-5 as a starter with wins over the Jets and Steelers) in an offense that was designed for Kyle Orton and re-tooled to fit Tebow’s weird-ass skill set more or less on the fly. Denver was simply outcoached against New England in the playoffs, something that’s hardly appropriate to blame on the second-year quarterback. Nitpick his mechanics all you want (and there’s certainly plenty to nitpick), but this year proved, in the same way talented teams like the Jets and Cowboys can collapse without the proper balls to back them up, that it’s impossible to account for Tebow’s intangibles. The guy is made with every bone in his body to win games. Build the team around him, install an offense that doesn’t rely solely on the run-option and, yes, fine-tune his mechanics a bit, and he will. –Anthony

Written by Joe Lazauskas, Anthony Benigno, and Matt Alberswerth