Bengals (+4) over TEXANS
The Bengals barely survived a brutal back stretch of the season, backing into the playoffs after Mark Sanchez decided he’d rather stay and party in Miami for January and Rex Ryan was so distracted by all those open-toe sandals on South Beach that he made his craziest player, Santonio Holmes, captain for the most important game of the season.
Brian Schotenheimer: Rex, who are you going to pick as captain this week?
Ryan: How about that selfish, lunatic head case who everyone hates, Santonio? We’ll inpire him to lead!
Schottenheimer: Lol. But who really?
(Jets fans are bitching right now that I gave Brian Schottenheimer too much credit in that joke.)
The Bengals’ 3-5 record during the second half of the season is a bit disconcerting, but remember, they lost 4 games during that stretch to the Ravens and Steelers. Just because your big brothers pin you down and make you smell your great aunt’s panties doesn’t mean that you’re worthless. It just means that you need a lot of therapy–but that’s luckily built into most Bengals’ fans health insurance under Obamacare. (As a Cubs fan, he feels a kindred spirit with the Bengals.)
Three weeks ago, the 10-3 Texans were steamrolling the league, led by rookie 3rd-string QB TJ Yates. (Side note: We really need a Goodell-style sports blogging commissioner. All of the sports bloggers that compared TJ Yates to Tom Brady after Week 14 should be punished in some way). The Texans looked unstoppable. I was genuinely worried that a Gary Kubiak Super Bowl win would fulfill the Mayans apocalyptic prophesy. I spent 2 hours stoned and researching NYC bomb shelters.
While I was spending some time contemplating whether my Chinese neighbors would thrust me out of the Chinatown bomb shelter for someone who, you know, spoke the same language, Wade Phillips was experiencing a mysterious issue that required “a procedure” that would keep him out two weeks. It was a fate Cowboys fans had prayed for every Sunday for years, but in Houston, the Texans revamped D promptly looked more confused than Wade at a salad bar, losing in embarrassing fashion to the Panthers and Colts and reminding everyone what happens when you leave Gary Kubiak in charge by himself during December. Do you think Gary Kubiak just treats December like the rest of America, where everyone just sort of stops really working around December 17 in anticipation of the holidays, and shift into a lazy mode that won’t break until after New Year’s? Is it possible that Gary Kubiak is just the wants-to-be-liked boss who tells his team, “Fuck it, you guys have worked hard all year, take a couple of weeks off. I mean I know there are a few ways we can get a bye, but, I’m just saying, if the misses is on your ass to do some holiday shopping and you need to skip practice to hit the mall, I understand. But after New Year, we’re hitting it strong!”
No one hits it strong after slogging around for 3 weeks, Gary. Although it was funny when you let Jake Delohomme throw the ball 32 times that it seemed like your team really could have liked to win. Who gets inspired about a coach that has a chance to push their biggest rival out of the playoffs and would rather lose the game than go to overtime? The Giants fans would be infuriated if Coughlin wimped out of a chance to knock the Eagles out of the playoffs. Same for Steelers-Ravens, Eagles-Cowboys, Redskins-Cowboys, Falcons-Saints, Jets-Pats, etc. And to do it with your backups? That makes the win all the sweeter. But now you just have sort of a strange loss that didn’t stop your slump.
Ultimately, these are two teams with good defenses and functional ball control offenses. Some questions to consider:
Who has the better QB?
Everyone raves about rookie Andy Dalton’s poise. He seems made for the playoff spotlight, and he’s already the AFC’s 5th best QB behind Brady, Rapesburgers, Peyton (if he plays again) and Rivers. Yates hasn’t looked that bad during the Texans slump, but he was unjustly crucified following the losses. And Kubiak never defended him. And then the Titans knocked him out after 5 throws. And all of Houston is acting like it’s the apocalypse. I’m sure he doesn’t feel any pressure at all.
Bengals. After a surprisingly good game from the Red Rifle.
Who has the better coach?
Gary. Kubiak.
Bengals.
Who has the biggest threat?
Half-Speed Andre Johnson has 140 yards and no TDs since Halloween. Vegas is giving money away with AJ Green (-3.5) over Johnson for Total Receiving Yards. Bet it.
Bengals.
Could you easily see this game being decided by a field goal?
I have trouble not seeing this game decided by a field goal.
Bengals 20 Texans 17
Lions (+10.5) over SAINTS
Everyone makes the last Lions-Saints game out to be this colossal blowout. It wasn’t. The Lions had the ball with a chance to tie in the 4th quarter. And the Lions were without Suh and 2 of their top 4 cornerbacks. Cornerbacks are kind of important when you’re playing the Saints, as are fierce inside pass rushers. I know that Drew Brees is terrifying, but does everyone realize that Matthew Stafford threw for over 5,000 yards and 41 TDs? After bracketing Calvin Johnson with two defenders, gunner-style, in the last matchup, does Gregg Williams have another magic scheme to contain Megatron? Megatron might lose an early round, but he always comes through at the narrative’s climactic ending. Stafford and Megatron are growing game-by-game, and they’re better than they were the last time these teams played.*
The Lions defense is much better, too, with Chris Houston and Suh back. Look at how they stymied the red-hot Chargers passing attack in Week 16. Rivers made the Ravens look like chumps. He couldn’t do anything against Detroit.
Sorry, Breesus, I’m not betting against the Lions keeping this within 10.
Saints 34-Lions 27
*Just think how much better they’re going to be next year, after Stafford and Johnson have a full off-season together. (The Lions should make Stafford and Johnson agree to spend at least 70% of the off-season within 20 miles of each other. This could be the type of sad reality show that football junkies would watch in the off-season to quell their football craving…I would watch it.
GIANTS (-3) over Falcons
The Giants narrative is a bit redundant, but always entertaining. This is the part where they come back from dead, fueled by #nobodybelievesinus, gather momentum into the playoffs, and start to make noise. Being a Giants fan is kind of like watching a series of sports movie sequels, most ultimately disappointing but always entertaining. The Giants have been here before, entering the playoffs with confidence and health, fueled by a pass rush coming to life. And this time, Eli Manning is an established elite quarterback, quietly throwing for 4,933 yards and 29 scores and carrying the Giants to the playoffs. Even the most ardent Eli haters have relented that he’s playing phenomenal football.
The Falcons were the league’s most consistent team statistically this year according to Football Outsiders. They beat the teams they’re supposed to beat, lose to the teams they’re supposed to lose to. But the Mike Smith and Matt Ryan Falcons are a bad 0-2 in the playoffs, and they’ll be in foreign, hostile territory up in the Jersey Swamps, in front of a rabid crowd. There’s only one narrative I can believe in here.
Giants 31 Falcons 27
BRONCOS (+9) over Steelers
The Rapist Formerly Known As Big Ben is badly hobbled and it’s killing his accuracy. Mendenhall, who always rises up in the playoffs, is out. Starting Center Maurice Pouncey likely won’t play according to the Steelers beat writers. Um, your Center is kind of important in front of a crazed Mile High crowd high on Tebow. Seriously, this will be more like a cult gathering than a football game. Ryan Clark can’t play because his Spleen will explode playing in the Mile High air. This is the easiest bet of the weekend. The Steelers win ugly on the road, and Denver’s D is good enough to make them win ugly.
Plus, Bill Simmons’ argument that Tim Tebow’s Broncos are entering the last act of a sports movie is just too persuasive to ignore. Even if I think Tebow will fall just a little bit short.
Steelers 17 Broncos 16
Joe Lazauskas
Joe Lazauskas is the Director of Content and Community for the Faster Times and has worked in Social Media since before he could legally buy cigarettes. He’s the former Social Media Coordinator at Babble and has since led campaigns for everything from Showtime dramas to ...
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