Week Twelve NFL Predictions: Cowboy Collapse

One: The Steelers will not win a playoff game. Someone get these guys a Bloody Mary, because they have one bad Super Bowl hangover. A Bengals loss would have put the Steelers right back in the hunt for a first-round bye. Now, they might be playing a third string QB in Baltimore next Sunday night. Forget a repeat. This team is average without Polamalu, who will be out another month and won’t be close to 100% when he returns. They need to take at least two out of four against the Ravens (twice), Packers and Dolphins to make the playoffs, and that’s no guarantee. Even if they do make it, this doesn’t look like a team that will go into Cincinnati, Foxboro or San Diego and pull off the upset.

Two: The Bengals have blown their first-round bye—the Pats will grab the two seed. That Raiders loss was huge. With a win, they would have firmly controlled the two seed, and could have afforded a loss in San Diego or Pittsburgh. Now, they have to win both games to fend off a Patriots team that, 4^th and 2 shenanigans aside, is playing great and will win out if they knock off the Saints next Monday Night (which I think they will.) I don’t mean to go too hard on this year’s feel-good story, but if they want to contend for a championship, that bye is huge.

Three: The Broncos are dead. They’ve lost four straight by an average of 20 points. Kyle Orton moved Sunday like a black-out-drunk, frat boy stumbling for the last train out of Manhattan. I have a petition for CBS and Fox: remove the Broncos from your playoff picture graphics. I don’t care if they’re technically 6-4. The Titans have a better shot of making the post-season. Get ‘em out of here. They choked on their filet minon during the bye week, and for weeks we all just thought they might be asleep, but now, that carcass is starting to stink.

Four: The Texans will make the playoffs if they win tonight. Now, Keep in mind, I don’t think the Texans will win. I think the Titans are one of the best dozen or so teams in the NFL and will pull the upset. However, if they get a big win here, they’ll be in a great position to upset the Colts in Houston next week. The Colts look physically beat; they’re eeking out wins in an amazing fashion, but I really think a 2^nd straight road game would be too much for them. At 7-4, the Texans would have a wildcard berth in their hands.

Five: The Giants will recapture the NFC East lead on December 6^th. This prediction says more about the Giants opponents than the Giants themselves. I don’t think there’s much of a chance Denver rebounds and beats the Giants on Thanksgiving, and the Cowboys offense is in a total free-for-all, scoring 14 points in the past two games. Teams are aggressively taking away the crossing routes to Hurd and Miles, and Romo appears lost. They only won Sunday because the Redskins dropped two easy picks and missed two field goals. They won’t get the same luck in Giants Stadium.

Six: Let’s take it one step further: The Cowboys won’t make the playoffs. After Dallas barely beats Oakland on Turkey Day, rile up the drunken desert conversation with this prediction. I honestly see the Cowboys losing four out of their last five after Thanksgiving to piss away their season again. It’s in their heads. They’re already scared of it. Road games in New York, New Orleans and Washington will be really tough. I can’t see them outscoring San Diego at home. They’re destined to be knocked out of the playoffs again on the last day of the year by the Eagles.

Seven: The Packers will survive injuries to Al Harris and Aaron Kampman. The Kampman injury isn’t as big as advertised; the switch to the 3-4 was already crippling his play. Harris is a good, physical cornerback and a big loss. A couple of things will help: first, they only play one top passing team down the stretch (the Steelers), and secondly, they’ll get a freebie in week 17, since the Cardinals will be locked into a first-round home playoff game and won’t play Warner and co. most of the game.

Eight: The Vikings are going to the Super Bowl. We can’t avoid it: Brett’s boys are consistently more dominant than anyone else. They have a better D and running game than New Orleans, and Favre is playing better than any other NFC QB. He has a rating of over 112! Their big, boring wins and huge divisional lead make the Vikes easy to ignore, but they might be better than the 10-0 teams.

Nine: There will be seven new coaches next season. Where? In Buffalo, Cleveland, Oakland, Washington, Dallas, Chicago, and Carolina. Out of those fired, only John Fox will find another head coaching gig next year.

Ten: Week Twelve playoff implications will jolt you out of your red wine/turkey hangover. You’ll be mighty tempted to boil up the coffee and order NFL Network for Broncos-Giants, do or die on T-giving night. You’ll love watching the Texans take a big swing at home against the undefeated Colts, the Skins going to Philly for an NFC East blood bath, the Titans and Cards in a “holy-shit these teams are pretty damn good” game, the Steelers and Ravens playing for their playoff lives, and best of all, Patriots-Saints on Monday Night Football. That one might give John Madden a heart attack.

Check back for Power Rankings tomorrow in Faster Football, Exact record predictions here tomorrow, and Week 12 picks on Wednesday. Good luck pushing through ‘till your holiday. Remember, a pre-Thanksgiving cocktail never hurt.

Photo by SMH