NBA Overrated Underrated

Last year the Boston Celtics surprised most by turning it on at the end of the year and making a run to the NBA Finals. If you looked closely at the quality of Boston’s starting lineup, indicators of a massive playoff run started to reveal themselves.

In the playoffs, teams play their best lineups together for much longer stretches than during the regular season. Players are more likely to play through injuries, and players get much more rest between games. This marginalizes the effect of having a good bench and makes starters much more important.

Last season, Boston outscored its opponents +0.25 points per minute (PPM) with its starters, while top seed Cleveland was only an -0.11 and +0.17 with its two most used lineups. The Lakers most used lineup was also held a +0.25 PPM last year. Based on this criteria, the following should give a good indicator of who is over and underrated going into the playoffs.

Overrated:

San Antonio Spurs

Despite their best in the NBA record, their likely most used lineup is +0.21 PPM. That ranks 6th among the top playoff teams, and is half of the Celtics and Lakers over a significant amount of minutes.

Orlando Magic

Their most used lineup since their big trade is -17 over 185.3 minutes or -0.09 PPM. This lineup has been markedly below league average. League average would be +/- 0.0, so I contend that they are far below average due to playing minutes vs. non-starters.

Oklahoma City Thunder

Their most commonly used lineup is only +0.005 PPM over a monster sample of 603 minutes, and is basically below league average for the same reasons as Orlando.

* If they bench Jeff Green, they are considerably better, Westbrook-Sefolosha-Durant-Ibaka-Krstic lineup is +0.26 PPM, so they may move to underrated depending on Scott Brooks’ lineup decisions.

Portland Trailblazers

The lineup they are most likely to use are -2 pts over 323 minutes. Again, this is below league average.

Utah Jazz

652.1 minutes and -0.07 PPM. Again, below league average for starters.

Underrated:

Miami Heat

Coach Erik Spoelstra may be finally realizing their best lineup is when they don’t play a true point guard, but instead go with Wade-LeBron-James Jones/Mike Miller backcourt as they did for a fair amount vs. Boston on Sunday, forcing the 6’1 170 lbs Rajon Rondo to guard the 6-9 260 lbs Lebron James. That lineup is +0.82 PPM over a very small sample size, however.

LA Lakers

With a healthy Bynum available, they are +0.41 PPM with Fisher-Bryant-Artest-Gasol-Bynum on the floor. Ron Artest has been dreadful this season, so having Odom come off the bench to possibly take minutes from Artest makes this team even better. They have the best point differential over significant minutes.

Dallas Mavericks

They certainly take a hit due to the Caron Butler injury, because with him they had probably the best differential in the league. However, their most likely lineup now of Kidd-Terry-Marion-Nowitzki-Chandler are +0.46 PPM, second only to Miami in PPM. Like Miami, they too are uncertain as they’ve only been on the floor for 72 minutes together.

Atlanta Hawks

Bibby-Jamal Crawford-Johnson-Smith-Horford

These guys are +0.30 PPM over 182.5 minutes, which places them right behind Miami and Boston in the East. Better than Chicago’s 0.22, Orlando’s -0.09 and even San Antonio’s 0.21 PPM. Only caveat is that they have moved Joe Johnson to the 2 position and put Marvin Williams at the 3 for a much less effective lineup for almost double the amount of minutes.

Rankings:

Miami +0.82*

Dallas +0.46*

Boston +0.41

LA Lakers +0.41

Atlanta Hawks +0.30

Chicago Bulls +0.22*

San Antonio Spurs +0.21

New York Knicks +0.16

Denver Nuggets +0.15*

New Orleans Hornets +0.06

* Indicated lineup having played less than 180 minute together.