UFC 118 (in Boston!): And the Winners Are …

Before reading another word of this UFC 118 preview, be sure to log off any offshore gambling websites that have your credit card numbers. Rip up that napkin you keep in your wallet with your cousin’s bookie’s cell number on it. I’m not responsible for what happens to your money should you be foolish enough to risk it based on my predictions. Unless you win, in which case I want my cut.

If you can’t control your gambling habit, stop reading this right now and just click  here to read the piece I wrote about the weigh-ins and Fan Expo for ESPN Boston. Then go here and here and here for more on UFC 118.

You’re still here? OK, if we’re clear on our terms and expectations, here goes (starting with the prelims that will air for free on Spike) :

Andre Winner vs. Nik Lentz: This is the wrong fight for me to start with, because I’m pretty much picking out of a hat. (That means this is your safest opportunity to put one of my picks to use, since when I’m grasping at thin air  rather than painstakingly thinking something through, I tend to be way more psychic.) OK, I’m going to go with Lentz, because when in doubt I always lean toward the wrestler. And as in old newspaper man, I like the headline possibilities offered by Winner losing. Lentz by decision.

Joe Lauzon vs. Gabe Ruediger: One has to assume that Lauzon, motivated by the opportunity to fight within a few miles of home (Bridgewater, Mass.), will put up a better fight than Paris Hilton did:

Unless Ruegiger has some sort of scandalous sex tape with which to blackmail “J-Lau” into throwing the fight, I’m going with … Lauzon by rear-naked papparazzi choke.

Marcus Davis vs. Nate Diaz: It comes down to discipline, which Davis has and Diaz doesn’t. If Nate can stick to his game (the ground), it could be his night. But I think he’s going to be lulled into standing with Davis … until the former professional boxer (he was 17-1-2) from Bangor, Maine, knocks him down. Davis by KO.

Kenny Florian vs. Gray Maynard: Gray is one of those ex-wrestlers who is not satisfied with going old school on you and double-legging you to the safety of the mat. He likes to trade leather, which is a mistake against a striker as precise and elusive as Florian. And even if Maynard comes to his senses (before being knocked senseless) and does go back to his roots, Kenny’s grappling has been fortified immeasurably by training with the best wrestler in MMA, Georges St-Pierre. Maynard will walk into the cage with an unblemished record, but it looks like his “0″ has got to go. Florian by third-round TKO.

Demian Maia vs. Mario Miranda: Maia looked amateurish against Anderson Silva. But so has everyone this side of Chael Sonnen. Maia’s standup also was exposed, in a painful instant, by Nate Marquardt. But anyone can get caught. There’s no room for excuses this time, though, so Maia had better get this fight to the mat, where he’s a virtuoso. Miranda has jiu-jitsu skills as well, but he’s a house painter where Maia is Picasso. Miranda will do all he can to make this a boxing match, if he knows what’s good for him. I don’t think his relocation program is going to succeed. Maia by submission.

Randy Couture vs. James Toney: Toney walks straight across the ring, throws a punch, and the fight is over. That’s my prediction regardless of whether the punch lands. If it does, right on the button, Couture could sound like Toney in post-fight interviews, and Toney could sound like Muhammad Ali after authoring the greatest upset ever in MMA and one of the most improbable in sports history. But if Toney’s first punch — his one shot — fails to connect with the chin of a feinting or head-bobbing Couture, or if it only glances, or if it connects pretty well but Randy groggily grabs ahold of  a leg, or if the punch never comes because Couture has raced across the cage and double-legged the 41-year-old boxer before he knows what hit him (what hit you, James, is the mat against your back), if any of this happens, it’s over as soon as James Toney says it’s over. Which is to say, as soon as he tap-tap-taps his way out of a brutal beating. Couture by anticlimactic first-round TKO.

Frankie Edgar vs. B.J. Penn: The thinking on this fight is divided between (a) those who believe Edgar didn’t do enough in April to deserve walking away with Penn’s championship belt, with B.J. now back to reclaim what’s rightfully his, and (b) those who believe Edgar did deserve the slim UFC 112 victory but, in dethroning Penn, awoke a sleeping giant who is about to make the world right again by climbing back atop the lightweight heap. No one outside of Toms River, N.J., is giving Frankie a chance … except me. I’m taking Edgar in this fight because, as B.J. himself said at Wednesday’s news conference, the physical part of fighting is just a small part of it. Unlike everyone else in the division, all of whom step into the cage against Penn as beaten men because they know they’re about to fight a legend, Edgar has no such idol worship for Penn. No anymore. He’s beaten him once, and in his mind, he can do it again. And I say the body — its punches and kicks and all — will follow where the mind goes. Edgar by decision.

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