Go Ahead, Bet the House: The UFC 110 Winners Will Be …

With the sports world’s eyes fixed on North America and the Vancouver Olympics, the global leader in mixed martial arts is venturing off the beaten half-pipe this weekend halfway around the world, coincidentally at the site of the Summer Games of a decade ago. And UFC 110 in Sydney, Australia, has a true international flavor, perhaps even more than a typical MMA card.

There’s the legendary Brazilian jiu-jitsu heavyweight, coming off a marquee performance, fighting in the main event. There’s the don’t-blink-or-you’ll-miss-the-brutal-finish striker-vs.-striker matchup between the polarizing Brit and the fierce Brazilian stalker, each of whom has been on the what-hit-me? side of a vicious knockout within recent memory (or loss of memory). There are a few Croatians, the most notable being a former special services police officer who may or may not have any bullets left in the chamber. There are a bunch of Americans, a Canadian who’s known as “The Polish Experiment,” and, of course, a number of unruly Aussies — I’m referring to the fighters, although that probably could describe much of the crowd on Saturday night (actually Sunday morning in Sydney).

So who’ll be standing on the podium with a gold medal draped around his neck at the end of the night? I’ve not been around MMA for as long as Dick Button has been amassing his wealth of figure skating knowledge, but I have opinions. Before I share them, though, I offer this proviso: If you choose to use these picks at a Las Vegas sports book, you (a) are crazy and (b) do so at your own risk. And if you win, you owe me.

OK, here’s what I see happening on the UFC 110 main card:

Mirko Filipovic vs. Anthony Perosh: It’s difficult to back Cro Cop too enthusiastically without first having a peek at his gas gauge. How much does the 35-year-old have left in the tank? His needle has been teetering near “E” pretty much ever since he joined the UFC, a point that has not gone unnoticed by the great Fedor Emelianenko. And the declawing of Filipovic was  especially evident in his last fight, a one-sided loss to Junior Dos Santos. But Perosh, a late replacement for the ill Ben Rothwell, presents not even a small fraction of the problems that Dos Santos does. Hell, he’s not even half the threat Rothwell would have been, being a barely-bulked-up 205-pounder who can’t impose himself physically on Mirko the way the 265-pound Rothwell might have. Filipovic, whose will to continue fighting has been questioned lately, surely isn’t going to be hesitant to engage with an overmatched 37-year-old Aussie nicknamed “The Hippo.” So here’s an opoortunity for Cro Cop to go out with some panache. If he can put his pedal to the metal this one last time, he’ll find a way to put his foot on Perosh’s ill-prepared cranium. Filipovic by TKO in the first round.

Keith Jardine vs. Ryan Bader: It’s rare that “The Dean of Mean” faces a guy who can compete with him in the nickname competition, but “Darth Vader” is eerily evocative and poetically cinematic . . . and it’s sure to have traction with the all-important Star Wars nerd demographic the UFC has been so desperately coveting. The thing is, Jardine is the guy here with the Han Solo soul, with his otherworldly looks and unorthodox standup. (Two digressions: (1) If “The Dean of Mean” weren’t such an awesome thing to be known as, Jardine could always go by the nickname “Unorthodox,” because I’ve never seen a story about him that didn’t use that word to describe him; and (2) the Han Solo reference comes courtesy of my almost-7-year-old Star Wars-obsessed son, who asked to be credited for his expertise.) And Jardine also has a shinier pedigree, with wins over Chuck Liddell, Forrest Griffin and Brandon Vera. Bader has nothing like those names on his resume . . . but he’s beaten everyone who’s been put in front of him. He makes this step up in competition with a 10-0 record, while Jardine is a fading 15-6-1, with losses in three of his last four outings. It can be exciting to watch a young fighter on the rise, but on this night I envision nothing too thrilling for the spectators, just lots of crowd grumbling as Bader takes the fight to the mat and rides it out, decisively if not spectacularly. Bader by decision.

Joe Stevenson vs. George Sotiropoulos: Since 2006, Stevenson has lost to three men: Kenny Florian, Diego Sanchez and B.J. Penn. Sotiropoulos does not fit in that company. That’s not to say he doesn’t belong in the cage with Joe Daddy, though. Hey, that “Joe Daddy” reference reminds me of something that’s been weighing on my mind: Do you think Stevenson took on that nickname as a prideful recognition of having sired offspring, or because he hoped to develop a signature finishing move in which he mounts an opponent and, while “raining down punches” (as Mike Goldberg might say on the PPV telecast), taunts his foe with “Who’s your Daddy? Who’s your Daddy?” (Sorry to carry on with this nonsensical nickname obsession, but I guess that’s why I’ve become known far and wide as Jeff “He Picks Up On Something And Never Lets It Go” Wagenheim.) Anyway, I don’t think Sotiropoulos has to worry about being dominated quite like that. But while the skilled Aussie does pose a threat, I expect the all-round solid and road-tested Stevenson to control the fight, whether it’s a standup sparring session or it hits the mat. Stevenson by decision.

Wanderlei Silva vs. Michael Bisping: When I first heard about this matchup, I categorized it as the grizzled old veteran vs. the up-and-coming young stud. Then I realized that Silva, at 33, is just three years older than Bisping. And when I thought about it some more, it occurred to me that Bisping isn’t really up-and-coming, as he’s already knocked on the door of the elite clubroom for 205-pounders (and had the door slammed in his face), and he’s not really all that studly either, with a pitter-patter attack that wears on opponents rather than devastates them. As for Silva, he is grizzled, with 43 fights on his record, against a who’s who of championship-level fighters: Dan Henderson (twice), Rampage Jackson (three times), Chuck Liddell, Rich Franklin, Mark Hunt, Kazushi Sakuraba (twice), Vitor Belfort, Tito Ortiz and others. Unless the wear and tear from those testy battles, combined with cutting weight all the way to 185 ponds, weakens him, “The Axe Murderer” should cut right through Bisping, who is still psychologically hurting from a highlight-reel Henderson KO that changed his nickname from “The Count” to “The Counted Out.” (Sorry, had to get in one last nickname jab.) A wary fighter may look like a smart fighter, but if he teeters over the line and becomes a tentative fighter, watch out. Silva by second round TKO.

Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira vs. Cain Velasquez: Yes, as I mentioned above, Nogueira is coming off “a marquee performance,” in which he controlled the control freak Randy Couture, reversing his way out of dangerous situations and threatening with submission attempts to earn a unanimous decision. Impressive, especially in light of how dominant Couture was in his subsequent Seniors Tour outing, against a spent Mark Coleman. But citing just the Couture bout is telling less than half of the “Minotauro in the UFC” story, as Nogueiro’s three previous trips inside the octagon were pretty sketchy. He was said to have been at less than 10o percent in his dreadful loss to Frank Mir, but that still leaves two substandard (albeit victorious) showings in the Dana White Athletic Club, against the plodding Tim Sylvia (a guillotine choke enabled Big Nog to snatch victory from the jaws of a likely decision loss) and Heath Herring (a lackluster decision win). And those four fights account for his full slate of activity since the beginning of 2007. Does he have the energy to stand his ground against the freight train named Cain Velasquez? The relentless former All-America wrestler is stronger and quicker . . . and has a knack for thudding takedowns in which he instantly ends up in side control, which would save him the trouble of dealing with Nogueiro’s cagy and threatening full guard. Velasquez still could get caught in a submission — no heavyweight is better suited to pull it off  than Minotauro — but Cain is such a beast on the ground that in my crystal ball I see nothing but bruises on Nog’s noggin. Velasquez by third-round ground-and-pound stoppage.

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