I want to just call your attention to a comment I made in response to Russ Wellen’s popular post on this site, entitled “Would You Trust a Country That Named Its First Nuke Test ‘Smiling Buddha’?” To which my short answer is: why yes, yes I would. And here, for those of you too lazy to click over and read the comments section below Russ’s post, is why:
I take Russ’s points about the bankruptcy of the current non-proliferation regime. It is absolutely true that the Bush administration gutted the NPT as soon as it decided to let India out of the nuclear dog house and secured India’s country-specific exemption from the NSG. After doing that, it makes it much harder to strengthen the NPT or enforce sanctions against Iran. But I think Russ misrepresents or elides the real reasons the Bush team did this. And he also miss some crucial differences between India and other “rogue states”:
India, as Russ says, never signed the NPT. But Iran did. And that is why it is still logically consistent to impose sanctions against Iran and combat its attempt to develop a nuclear program, while allowing India to possess nuclear weapons. (In fact, this is the position that Indian diplomats take on this issue.)
What’s more, even though it never signed the NPT, India – like Israel, but unlike Pakistan or North Korea — has a fantastic record on non-proliferation. There is absolutely no evidence India has ever tried to transfer or sell nuclear weapons technology to a third party. Meanwhile, Pakistan had A.Q. Khan – who was basically selling plans and equipment for an enrichment cycle and bombs to whoever would pay. The Bush people who gutted the NPT did so intentionally not inadvertently and they did so for reasons I will explain in a moment. But India’s actual proliferation record was clearly part of why the Bush team felt confident in seeking an exemption for India from the Nuclear Suppliers Group.
Russ cites Andrew Lichterman and M.V. Ramana as claiming that the reason the US decided to embrace India as a nuclear power and seek an NSG exemption for them was that U.S. multinationals wanted to use it as a wedge to open India up for further business. But this isn’t the main reason behind the Bush administration’s policy toward India’s nuclear program. Instead, the U.S. stance was part of a larger effort to position India as a capable, strategic regional rival to China. The idea is that a stronger India would serve as a check on Chinese dominance in the region. And making India more equivalent with China meant creating an India with both nuclear weapons, and a viable nuclear power industry to make sure it has adequate electricity to meet its power and infrastructure develop goals. Also, the good will generated by the nuclear deal, was supposed to drive Delhi into Washington’s embrace, making it a more vital regional ally which could be counted on to support the US both in the region and in international bodies.
Overall, the Bush administration viewed foreign policy not through traditional, realist “balance of power” politics that focuses on state’s “capabilities,” but through a focus on state’s “intentions.” (In this way, it actually borrowed quite a lot from the school of American foreign policy that is usually labeled “idealist.” This is an insight that my friend Peter Scoblic points out to great effect in his indictment of conservative foreign policy, Us Vs. Them.) Interestingly, the NPT, while often seen as the achievement of dovish, idealist, peacenicks, actually takes as its premise a hard-headed, realist focus on capabilities. Intentions don’t come into it.
The Bush people, though, decided that this was part of what was wrong with the current non-proliferation regime. It lumped India, which had never been guilty of proliferating, in the same camp as Pakistan, which was selling nukes to all comers. And where was the danger of loose nukes ending up in the wrong hands greater: in Pakistan (which is facing a multi-front civil war with various sets of Islamic extremists while the intelligence services work hand in glove with other Islamic terrorists) or in Russia (which is part of the NPT as a nuclear power but which has a lot of unsecured nuclear material and which has a class of under-employed, impoverished, and mercenary scientists and military officials and a huge organized crime problem) or India (where, despite the country’s poverty and sometimes poor security, there is absolutely no evidence of either proliferation on the part of Indian scientists or any evidence that nuclear material is likely to fall into the wrong hands)?
So the Bush administration — one could argue rightly or wrongly — decided to focus on risks and intentions, and not on mere capabilities. I personally see some real downsides to this approach. But I don’t think Russ strengthens his case by misrepresenting India’s record or the rationale the Bush administration used when it pushed for India’s NSG exemption.
After all, there is something wrong when Russia is considered a good guy when it comes to proliferation and India is considered a bad guy. And when Pakistan and India are held to be equivalent on this issue. (India and Pakistan are great rivals, but this is not some he said-she said, where both sides are equally to blame. Pakistan is by far the more worrisome country and while it is fine to say that Pakistan can never be reformed so long as it sees a threat from India, it is unfair to shift the burden for changing this perception entirely on to India’s shoulders. Pakistan needs to be convinced that it has far more existential threats within its own country than any threat posed by India.)
Perhaps it would be better to allow all these “rogue states” to join the NPT as nuclear powers, but then commit the entire world through the NPT to a disarmament program aimed at a true, nuclear-free future. But of course, that would require the US (and China and Russia) to be willing to give up their nuclear deterrent entirely. And that’s not going to happen, is it?
Jeremy Kahn
Jeremy Kahn is an independent journalist based in New Delhi, India, where he covers everything from politics and foreign affairs to business and the arts. In addition to The Faster Times, his work has recently appeared in Newsweek International, The International Herald Tribune ...
Read more about Jeremy Kahn ->
More on these topics:
A.Q. Khan, Andrew Lichterman, Bush administration, India, India-China relations, India-Pakistan relations, Iran, Israel, loose nukes, M.V. Ramana, Non-Proliferation Treaty, North Korea, NPT, NSG, Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, nuclear power, Nuclear Suppliers Group, nuclear terrorism, nuclear weapons, Pakistan, Peter Scoblic, Russ Wellen, Russia, Smiling Buddha, U.S.-India Civil Nuclear Accord, U.S.-India relations
Amin says:
Israel proliferated nuclear weapon technology to South Africa. Furthermore, the idea that Iran should be sanctioned because it's part of the NPT is disingenuous. Iran would be sanctioned regardless, because the Israel lobby controls the US political system.
Naeem Siddiqui says:
This article has lost its credibility and respect for being too baised against Pakistan and being too titled towards india (some time you feel that Jeremy Kahn is on payroll of indian establishment).
This article mises lots of facts about indian neuclear program which was basically stolen from canadian reactor by violating agreement. at later stage it was all funded sponsered by another 'rogue' state russia.
Sanjoy Das says:
Naeem,
India did NOT "steal" from a Canadian reactor. It did however obtain some of the plutonium in 1974 from a nuclear reactor near Mumbai that was of Canadian design. Russia has never funded/sponsored India's nuclear weapons program. You simply pulled these facts out of your southern end!
On the other hand, it is well known that:
1. Pakistan's rogue scientist A. Q. Khan stole blueprints of URENCO centrifuge design from the Netherlands and smuggled it to Pakistan to build Pakistan's HEU production facility at Kahuta. A. Q. Khan was convicted in Amsterdam (although later overturned due to a technicality.)
( http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/world/pakistan/khan.htm )
2. Chinese assistance in the development of gas centrifuges at Kahuta was indicated by the presence of Chinese technicians at the facility in the early 1980s.
3. Pakistan's A. Q. Khan Research Laboratory received 5,000 ring magnets from the China National Nuclear Corporation.
( http://www.fas.org/spp/starwars/crs/IB92056.pdf )
4. Pakistan proliferated nuclear weapons to Iran, North Korea, Iraq, and Libya.
( http://www.globalsecuritynewswire.org/gsn/nw_20100312_1208.php )
5. The Pakistani government was involved in the clandestine proliferation activity.
( http://www.armscontrol.org/interviews/20040619_Blix )
Aarif Ahmed says:
Being an Indian Muslim my statement shouldn't be mis interpreted among Islamic Communities, India is desperately trying to quench its energy thirst in order to meet its economic growth.More ever She is a totally responsible nation with regards to her duties towards the world and her people, regarding mis use of nukes , she isn't gonna worry about "poor,weak" and "irresponsilbe" nations like Pakistan and hence this totally dis approved her use of nukes on them, traditional force and weapons are far more then enough to handle and punish this mischiefs.
Divine says:
Dear Naeem,
India's Nuclear Program was not stolen from a canadian reactor. India did remove some Plutonium from it for its first nuclear test in 1974.
India's Nuclear program began in 1948 when the Atomic Energy Commission was set up, well before China.
PM Nehru prevented any weapons research until China tested in 1964. The NPT came into existence in 1970, and India tested in 1974.
Today India has nearly two dozen reactors and most of them have been designed and built in India by Indians. India conducts nuclear related research in fields as varied as nuclear power, medicine, food preservation, Fusion test reactor with the ITR, and yes also weapons related research. In fact, did you know that India was one of the first countries that used Nuclear sterilization as a means to preserve food products? A lot of pioneering work in this field has been done by Indian scientists.
As far as Nuclear weapons are concerned, in spite of both India and Pakistan possessing them, Pakistan frequently talking of Nuclear flashpoints, and threatening to use them, I don't think either country will actually use them.
The new century has new challanges, that of economic development being the topmost. The west is slowly crumbling, economically, politically. That vaccum will be filled by the new leaders such as China, India and Brazil, all big economies and big militaries.
I would like to hear more on what you have to say on this subject.
Regards
dovin says:
What about CHINA ? The original proliferator who gave nuclear bomb designs to Pakistan ? Dr Khan only stole centrifuge designs from Denmark - for uranium enrichment. The actual bomb design is CHINESE.
Now China is going ahead with giving nuke reactors to Pak without NSG permission.
Why did India bother to jump through so many hoops and make so many commitments to separate military and civilian programs and beg at NSG when NSG has no power to stop China from giving nukes to Pakistan ? Together these two countries are the worst nuclear dangers for the whole world.
Naeem Siddiqui says:
Mr Divine,
Ok lets redefine act of a theif. here is the new one
"A thief does not steal the money he just remove some money of his need from other's pocket without consent of the person"
Put this defination of stealing on your bajrangi dictionary
Pakistan's Nuclear program began in 1956 when the Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission was set up, I dont care if it was before or after india.
PM Bhutto prevented any weapons research until India tested in 1974
PAEC is also doing research on nuclear power, medicine, food preservation, Fusion test reactor; not only Pakistan but countries like Bangladeesh and others also doing these research so keep those stupid claims to your
fellow ignorent indians.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pakistan_Atomic_Energy_Commission
Most of the indian reactors are russian design and using Fuel and Equipments supplied by Russia.
As far as filling the power vaccum in future india is nowhere it would only be china and its allies who will fill this vaccum. India does have potential but lacks attitude of being supper power it behave like a tribe or remote african country in world afairs. even bangladesh and srilankans have much better attitude then indians in foreign and stretegic policies.
Naeem Siddiqui says:
Hey dovin
As per your fellow bajrangi Divine
Dr. Dr Khan did not 'stole' but he just brought some centrifuge designs from Denmark - for uranium enrichment
Same as
India did not stole but remove some Plutonium from a canadian reactor for its first nuclear test in 1974.
Kamal Mehta says:
India has been, like USA a victim of state sponsored terrorism which unlike some loose terrorist group [is more sinister in its manifestations, after years of self denial even America has acknowledged a simple fact...Pakistan is the ground zero of all international terrorism.
I do hope very soon the whole world would focus attention on countries that have been recipients of the Pakistani Bomb itself...I would like to bet that the nuclear bomb tested by North Korea was one of them. This is one reason why Pakistan would never let Mr. Khan be interrogated by an international team.
It seems strange that Pakistan should be begging financial aid from America to fight terrorism and at the same time support the Taliban with arms, finances, training and Intel to strike at Allied forces in Afghanistan.Let's not forget that recent success stories emanating from Afghanistan have been due to drone strikes against the terrorists, the command and control of which are in allied hands? Unless we remove the Pakistani element itself from the Afghanistan scenario we will never have 100% success in this region.
Naeem Siddiqui says:
Mr Kamal Mehta,
your nonsense sermon is totaly opposit to what happening on ground. US Britian are packing their begs in Afghanistan NATO has lost all hopes. their is split in US civil and malitary leadership. Karzai is negociating with Taliban with encouragement feom US and British Malitary leadership.
All these stories of north korea, libya iran and AQ Khan are now Past world is changing its time for you to wakeup as well otherwise it would be too late
Sanjoy Das says:
Dear Naeem,
Looks like you ignored my previous comment because what I said was backed up with links.
India did violate an international agreement, but so did the US by stopping fuel supply to Tarapur, something that makes Indians seethe to this day. US violation was arguably worse. China has violated even more, and wants to do so yet again by building two more reactors for Pakistan. Here is what a Candian newspaper editorial says:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/opinions/editorials/canada-india-these-nukes-are-good-nukes/article1623475/
But those are trivial issues compared to what Pakistan has done. It ran a nuclear Walmart with technology directly stolen from the West, and bomb designs obtained from the Chinese proliferators.
Sanjoy Das says:
--------------
All these stories of north korea, libya iran and AQ Khan are now Past world is changing its time for you to wakeup as well otherwise it would be too late
--------------
Shocking violations of international norms by Pakistan only a decade ago becomes "Past" because "the world is changing".
So claims the very person who brought up the issue of a minor transgression that India did (just like US did) THIRTY-SIX years ago!
Go figure!
Russ Wellen says:
Thanks, Jeremy. Hugely informative and helpful to me. Re:
After all, there is something wrong when Russia is considered a good guy when it comes to proliferation and India is considered a bad guy. And when Pakistan and India are held to be equivalent on this issue.
For the record I despise all nuclear states equally -- from the U.S. to North Korea!
(Again apologies to FT readers for mistake in title of my post: shouldn't have been "happy," but "smiling" Buddha.)
Naeem Siddiqui says:
Mr Jeremy Kahn,
Have you been payed aditional money by Indians to delete my comments!! what you did not like in my comments!! may be calling india behaving like a tribe or remote african country rather then an emerging supper power did not go well with your paymasters in New Delhi.
But this is a fact MAN! Deleting my post amy save your job but is not going to change the attitude of your paymasters.
Anyways I appriciate your best wishes about india although its rented. :)
Morlock says:
Naeem Siddiqui,
If someone 'brings' something from someone, without informing the owner, its called 'stealing'.
As with the plutonium removed from CIRUS, it was all Indian plutonium, which came from the Jaduguda mines. Canada never supplied us the plutonium.
Sanjoy Das says:
Russ Wellen:
1. Your mistake ("Happy Buddha") reflects the frivolous way you wrote the above article.
2. You say you hold all nations in "equal contempt". Unless your past articles reflect that fact, you stand accused of mendacity.
3. One country,
(i) has 5,000 nuclear warheads,
(ii) conducted over 1,000 tests including in a Micronesian island that was rendered inhabitable,
(iii) proliferated to Israel,
(iv) deployed nuclear weapons in other countries,
(v) threatened other nations with nuclear weapons in spite of the advisory opinion of the International Court of Justice in July 1996,
(vi) is the only one to have actually used nuclear weapons in war,
(vii) stands in violation of the spirit of NPT,
while the other country,
(i) maintains a smaller arsenal than even its unstable neighbor in spite of being 7 times the size, as well as Israel and the P-5,
(ii) has yet to develop ICBMs despite having proven geostationary satellite launching capability, and even a mission to the moon,
(iii) never proliferated even the smallest amount of nuclear knowhow,
(iv) has suffered from backbreaking sanctions until 2009,
(v) has a declared no-first-use policy,
and you still hold these two nations in EQUAL contempt????
Even Daryl Kimball, George Perkovich and the rest of the nuclear Ayatollah's would disagree!
sanman says:
Russ,
Strange of you to harp on the phrase "Smiling Buddha" when the original US nuclear test was named "Trinity".
But more to the point, India has never proliferated nuclear weaponry to anybody, while Pakistan has clearly spread its Chinese-gifted warhead design over to Iran, Libya and North Korea along with nuclear enrichment centrifuges and their designs.
India is a responsible and restrained democracy living next to two belligerent, autocratic and aggressive neighbors - Pakistan and China. The NPT is flawed because it has allowed signatory Iran to busily accumulate nuclear weapons technology right under its nose while planning for the day when it would make a quick all-out dash across the nuclear threshold.
The reason NPT is to blame for this, is because NPT allowed China to be a protected privileged member of the treaty while not being an actual signatory to it or abiding by it. The NPT came into force in 1968, but China only signed it in 1992! Uptil then, China busily proliferated to Pakistan which then proliferated to Iran and North Korea. Meanwhile responsible countries like India which didn't proliferate were left out in the cold. This is the Original Sin that NPT was born in, and why it was stillborn - you've only just now noticed how cold its corpse is.
Aarif Ahmed says:
@Naeem
Don't show your frustration in such a desperate way, that is the key point which rest of the world uses on our community and which whether you accept or not, has segregated us from whole of the world(Islam). 3-4 centuries ago we used to reflect the so called super and strong race but today no single Islamic country or can say whole Islamic country together is unable to defeat countries like India and Israel. Are we weak? No friend it's the fault of people like you who just enjoy talking through their expensive hat of Ego and has done nothing. If really you are so hurt and wanna do something good to our community then please go and do some constructive things , notheless please don't show your depression here to demotivate liberal peoples of our community who are the only last hope existed.
sanman says:
Furthermore, China has continued to proliferate nuclear and missile tech to Pakistan even after 1992 - as they have with their other client state, North Korea. Notice how both of these client states - both twin fists of China - have ramped up their terror attacks on their neighbors, due to the luxury of being able to hide behind their respective nuclear shields. India is nothing like these rogue states.
Aarif Ahmed says:
Interfering in other countries internal affairs and acting as a policemen isn't a sign of good attitude, it's just a gameplay to divert the focus of one's own country's people from basic problems of employment and development.Just what pakistan used to do and everyone else of world is now knowing the reality of such "nations of attitude".
If responsibility matters then India's first role should be to handle pakistan who is on the verge of producing another Bangladesh in near decade. Yeah there is little hole in Indian foreign policy otherwise the threat of loose nukes in neighbourhood isn't an acceptable issue by any sincere country and in my view India should act on this very soon by destroying those research centers and warheads. Else very soon they are gonna misused by tribes of so called terrorist of Pakistan which constitutes the majority of population there. @Naeem apart from America and China who else you Pakistanis are going to beg for money to buy your daily goods.?? If this is an example of Attitude then please keep it with you Sir.
dev india says:
Naeem Siddiqui,
your comments prove your very nature.....
let me say India did a very big mistake , probably an mistake India would always repent.
The mistake was allowing Pakistan to go nuclear. you should thank god(for u it is only Allah perhaps) that India did not strike your nuclear facilities the same way Israel did to Iran.
let me put onto record that your country otherwise would have been just a heap of ruins by now for heinous crimes u did like spreading terrorism in India,destabilizing the economy by circulating fake currency and many more.
But don,t worry India is gaining superpower status slowly and steadily thanks to its 8% growth rate. And the day is not to far when India would have the same power like that of USA, that it will invade and bulldoze any country it likes, first on the list is Pakistan of course.
So better be a good boy and stop spreading terrorism otherwise look out for consequences in the years to come.
AND YES YES I KNOW U HAVE NUKES , THAT TOO WITH NO FIRST USE POLICY.
Launch them , u may hit one or two targets but i promise you
that the next day PAKISTAN WOULD BE WIPED OUT OF THE EARTH(that are my words and our army's too).
Sidharth says:
might i make an observation.
looking at the current economic situation in the world, india is far better off than almost every country barring china.
but comming back to the topic, what is with pakistan, cant they use the little money they get as aid after begging for more to good use.
thousands dead millions displaced in pakistan after its worst floods in decades.
but the ISI controlls the money and spends it in manufacturing weapons and on R&D of weapons and nuclear bombs.
An honest peice of advice to pakistan- deal with ur militants more effectively rather than focusing on India.
Pakistan's biggest problem is that they think India is their biggest treath, fine but looking back into history india has never waged war against pakistan but vis a vis.
so spending that little bit of aid (money) on ur people and eliminating terrorism is more fruitfull rather than focusing on india.
Indian ecnomy very strong. People better off.
Pakistan economy- doesnt exist. People of pakistan ruined.
Pakistan is in a sad state because only a few people have some say and powr in pakistan and their minds only make way for negative things so therefore to make ur country a better place remove those people and pave a better way for the future of ur country.