NHL Hockey Picks and Predictions, Monday 11/28: San Jose Sharks at LA Kings, Nashville Predators at Edmonton Oilers, Dallas Stars at Colorado Avalanche, Tampa Bay Lightning at Minnesota Wild
The San Jose Sharks play the LA Kings and the Minnesota Wild host the Tampa Bay Lightning in two of the toughest games to break down all year. The slumping Predators visit the slumping Oilers and the Stars play the Avalanche without their stud goaltender in one of the funnest rivalries of this young season. The lines are extremely tight, which means even the biggest favorites come cheap on Monday.
Maybe Monday’s tough games will help me in the Man Vs Machine challenge. The computer has taken a slight edge in the competition after a convincing win in Sunday’s four games. It appears my November hot streak is ending, but humanity desperately needs another streak to start or machines could triumph. We’re halfway through the competition.
Tampa Bay Lightning at Minnesota Wild (-115)
The Lightning have won two in a row, but both games were against the Florida Panthers. Before that, the Lightning got dominated by the New Jersey Devils and the Toronto Maple Leafs. Before that, they beat the Penguins. Immediately before the Penguins win they lost to the lowly Jets and the St. Louis Blues. They won three in a row including games against the Flyers and Blackhawks in the games immediately before those disappointing losses. My point? You just can’t trust the Lightning this season, no matter how sexy their offense is. It’s like believing that you’re the first person tonight that stripper offered a $50 handjob to. I’m not saying don’t do it, but move forward with caution.
The Wild are on a two-game losing streak in the midst of a six-game home stretch. This skid follows an impressive five-game winning streak. The Wild offense, particularly Dany Heatley, is in a mini-slump. Tampa Bay goaltending, particularly Dwayne Roloson, has slumped all year. The Lightning’s offense is dangerous, with Steven Stamkos leading the way with 24 points, but the impressive Wild goaltending can shut down Tampa’s offense. Nicklas Backstrom has a 1.97 GAA in 14 games, and Josh Harding isn’t too far behind when called on to spell.
The Wild are struggling a bit, but you just can’t trust a Tampa Bay defense this bad.
Wild 3 – Lightning 2
Z Code takes a different approach to this game, finding a very high value in the underdog and going with +1.5 because the Wild have been slumping. The 5-2 loss scared the computer away, but to me it just means they’re due to bounce back. I can trust Nicklas Backstrom even after a shaky Wild loss.
Mark: Wild -115 pays .87
Z Code: TB +1.5 (-285) pays .35
Dallas Stars at Colorado Avalanche (-140)
The Avalanche dominated the Stars 3-0 when they last played, and scored six goals in a losing effort the first time these teams met. The Stars are now without arguably their best player, goaltender Kari Lehtonen. This groin injury could be the kick in the testicles that grounds the Stars’ hot start. Matt Duchene is hot, and as one of the streakiest scorers in the game I’m sure he’ll produce against a backup that hasn’t won in nearly a year.
Avalanche 5 – Stars 2
Z Code did not generate a pick with enough confidence so the game has been thrown out of the competition. I like the Avs here though, and Z Code agrees but not with enough faith to pick the game.
Nashville Predators (-115) at Edmonton Oilers
Two teams that were off to hot starts are now slumping into each other like the last two drunk girls left in a frat party basement.
The Oilers’ start was unexpected. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is producing and Nikolai Khabibulin was playing the best hockey of his career. Now that their goaltending has come back to earth, their youth and lack of depth is showing and getting exposed. The Preds have always struggled with offense, but Pekka Rinne will give the Oilers fits. He’ll outlast the entire Oilers team until his middling skaters can find the net.
Predators 3 – Oilers 1
This bet could make or break the competition as Z Code is going with the Oilers for the upset win. The slumping Predators show little value in their system, but I am again putting my faith in solid goaltending to bounce back.
Mark: Predators -115 pays .87
Z Code: Oilers +105 pays 1.05
San Jose Sharks (-105) at LA Kings
Toss up. The Kings let me down against the Sharks last time, and I’m not sure the Kings are who I thought they were. They have a solid goalie (who they tried to run out of town in the preseason), a great top-six (that isn’t quite performing as one of the league’s elite, and an overpaid defense (that’s right, I said it). I thought that was a formula to contend in the West, but they’re floating around .500 and can’t beat the top teams in the Conference.
I wanted to pick the Kings, but the Sharks are the much better team. A tough loss to the Canucks will slow down the game a bit when they play an easier team in L.A.
Sharks 3 – Kings 1
Both the computer and I have more faith in the Sharks here. The Kings have been a bit of a let down lately.
November: 89-64 Favorites: 58-31 Dogs: 31-33
MAN VS MACHINE CHALLENGE (One unit bet on each game picked: Z Code‘s computerized statistic-based betting VS me and my drunken guesswork)
Day 1: Man wins by 1.41 betting units
Day 2: Machine wins by .55 units
Day 3: Machine wins by 1.72 units
Machine leads by .86 betting units
