Fantasy Baseball:

The Tigers’ ace had the best numbers in the American League, winning the Cy Young Award unanimously. But National League pitchers Clayton Kershaw, Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee came close to Verlander in fantasy stats:

Verlander: 24 W; 2.40 ERA; 0.92 WHIP; 250 K
Kershaw: 21 W; 2.28 ERA; 0.98 WHIP; 248 K
Halladay: 19 W; 2.35 ERA; 1.04 WHIP; 220 K
Lee: 17 W; 2.40 ERA; 1.03 WHIP; 238 K

Moreover, Verlander’s stellar 2011 could be a career year. In five full seasons before 2011, Verlander’s best ERA was 3.37 and his top WHIP was 1.16. While Verlander has won at least 17 games in all but one season, he never won 20 until 2011’s 24.  Verlander’s BABIP was .236 in 2011, while his career mark is .285.

Kershaw’s great year far exceeded his previous seasons, but he was 23 in 2011, so we do not yet know what a typical year is for Kershaw.

Lee’s 2.40 ERA was only the second time he finished a season with an ERA under 3, and his 238 K shattered his previous season best of 185 K.

The most likely pitcher to repeat his great 2011 is Halladay. Over the last four seasons, Halladay has averaged 19.25 wins. His ERA has been below 2.80 and his strikeouts above 200 all four seasons. Halladay’s WHIP has been above 1.05 only once. Bear in mind that two of these seasons were with Toronto in the tough AL East.

How consistent is Halladay? He’s finished in the top five in Cy Young voting six straight seasons.

Pitchers are generally less consistent and more injury-prone than hitters, so fantasy owners usually go for hitters in the first round, when you want to get as sure a thing as possible. In 2011, only one of the top 12 picks by average draft position in ESPN leagues was a pitcher. Not surprisingly, that pitcher was Halladay (ADP 8.5).

While Halladay lived up to his ADP, finishing 10^th on ESPN’s player rater for the year, the pitchers with the next highest ADP, Tim Lincecum (ADP 15.5) and Felix Hernandez (ADP 16.1) did not reach that level (Lincecum player rating 57, Hernandez PR 84).

By contrast, of the eleven hitters in the top 12 by ESPN ADP, six finished in the top 20 in player rating (Albert Pujols, Robinson Cano, Miguel Cabrera, Ryan Braun, Joey Votto and Adrian Gonzalez) and two others finished in the top 30 (Troy Tulowitzki, Carlos Gonzalez).

As for Lincecum and Hernandez, while they disappointed by ADP, they still put up very good numbers.

Lincecum (13 W; 2.74 ERA; 1.21 WHIP, 220 K)
Hernandez (14 W; 3.47 ERA; 1.22 WHIP; 222 K)

In fact, Hernandez’s numbers are not much different than Verlander’s career 162-game average (18 W; 3.54 ERA; 1.19 WHIP; 208 K).

Going into 2012, Halladay, Kershaw, Verlander, Lincecum, Hernandez and Lee would all look great as the ace of a fantasy staff. Rather than taking one in the first or even second round, why not wait until the third? And even if there’s a run on pitchers in your draft, you can still grab two top hitters, then go for someone like CC Sabathia, Jered Weaver or Cole Hamels in round three.

Photo by Keith Allison.

On September 3, 2010, rookie phenom Strasburg had Tommy John surgery. With this sort of surgery generally requiring at least a year of recovery and the Nationals eager to protect their prize pitcher from further damage, it seemed unlikely that Strasburg would return in 2011, much less have fantasy relevance. But on August 7, Strasburg, made his first rehab start – and hit 98 on the gun.

On September 1, Strasburg, in his sixth rehab start, pitched six scoreless innings for AA Harrisburg, allowing just one hit, striking out four and walking none. His fastball hit 99.

Overall, Strasburg has pitched 20 1/3 innings in rehab starts, striking out 29 while walking only 3. He has a 3.54 ERA and 0.84 WHIP.

Strasburg is scheduled to make his first start of the season for the Nationals on September 6 against the Dodgers.

In the first three months of the season, the lowest monthly ERA for Javier Vazquez (45%) was 5.52 and his lowest monthly WHIP was 1.41.  Coming off his disastrous 2010 with the Yankees, Vazquez, who turned 35 in July, looked as if he could be done. Instead, Vazquez put up a 3.16 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in July and a sparkling 2.48 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in August. After fanning 66 in 96 1/3 IP in the first half, Vazquez has 60 strikeouts in 58 1/3 IP after the break. The Marlins don’t give him much run support – Vazquez has only one win in six August starts despite those great numbers – but only Cliff Lee and Matt Cain have better WHIPs than Vazquez’s 0.85 among starters over the last 30 days.

Ted Lilly (59%) went into the All-Star break with a 4.79 ERA and 19 HR allowed in 107 IP.  But he battled elbow tenderness in June, when his ERA for the month was a grim 7.01. After continuing to struggle in July, Lilly put up a great August – 2.35 ERA, 0.91 WHIP. Vazquez had 31 K in 38 IP and even cut his HR allowed a bit, down to five. As with Vazquez, run support is an issue – Lilly was just 2-3 in August while putting up those strong numbers. Lilly, 35, also dealt with another injury, a stiff neck, but he appears to have overcome it with the help of acupuncture.

After starting the season 1-4 with a 5.74 ERA, Jeff Niemann (61%) went on the DL for a month and a half with back tightness, returning in late June. But Niemann turned his season around in July, with a 1.06 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP, along with 34 K in 34 IP. In the second half, Niemann is 5-2 with a 2.98 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and 58 K in 63 1/3 IP.  He did falter in his most recent start, allowing five ER in 5 IP on September 1, though he was pitching in Texas.

Photo by dbking.

Fantasy Baseball:

After stealing a career-high 68 bases in 2010, Juan Pierre (46% owned in Yahoo! leagues) had only 13 steals in the first half and was caught stealing 10 times. Speculation had him in danger of being moved out of the top of the slumping White Sox lineup, perhaps even to the bench. Things have picked up for Pierre in the second half so far; he has five steals in 20 games (along with three CS) and is hitting .325, up from .269 in the first half.  Pierre turns 34 August 14.

After stealing 41 bases for Oakland in 2009 and 50 in 2010, Rajai Davis (pictured, 36%) already has 33 steals in 44 attempts for Toronto in 323 PA. But after starting the year hitting leadoff, Davis was moved to the bottom of the order in May and has mostly hit eighth or ninth since. When the Jays acquired Colby Rasmus, Davis lost his starting role. But with Toronto outfielder Eric Thames mired in a slump, Davis may yet regain playing time. Davis is 30.

When Jason Bourgeois (19%) gets into the lineup, he runs. In 307 career AB, he has 37 steals in 46 attempts. After hitting .220 in limited action for Houston in 2010, Bourgeois hit .353 with 17 steals in 105 PA in the first half of 2011. He was on the DL twice. But Bourgeois is now healthy, and with Hunter Pence and Michael Bourn traded, the path is clear for him to see regular playing time. Bourgeois is 29.

Dee Gordon (4%) had 22 steals in 25 attempts in AAA when the Dodgers brought up the 23-year-old to fill in at shortstop for the injured Rafael Furcal. Gordon had nine steals in 85 PA before Furcal returned and Gordon, who was hitting .232, returned to the minors. But when the Dodgers traded Furcal to the Cardinals, Gordon returned on July 31 and took over the Dodgers’ shortstop job. So far, he has two steals in 24 PA while hitting .250 in six games, the last five of which Gordon has hit leadoff. Gordon jammed his shoulder August 6, but was not expected to be out long.

Ben Revere (3%) moved into the Twins’ starting lineup in early June when Jason Kubel hurt his foot, then moved into the leadoff spot soon after when Denard Span went down with a concussion. The 23-year-old Revere stole seven bases in June and nine bases in July. When Span returned on August 2, Revere lost his starting job, but manager Ron Gardenhire found a way to get Revere into the lineup in three of the next six games. For the season, Revere is hitting .253 with 19 steals in 280 PA.

In limited playing time in the first half for Colorado, perennial prospect Eric Young (2%) hit .229 with an OPS of just .484 in 51 PA. The 26-year-old Young did steal four bases in four attempts. The Rockies brought Young back to the majors in late July when Carlos Gonzalez went on the DL. Young filled in for Gonzalez in LF and took over the leadoff spot. When Gonzalez returned on August 6, Young remained in the lineup, while Seth Smith went to the bench. In 51 PA in the second half, Young has five steals in six attempts along with a .244 BA and .673 OPS. Young is also eligible in Yahoo! and ESPN at 2B.

Photo by Keith Allison.

Fantasy Baseball:

The key word here is “unexpected.” Everyone expects San Diego to trade Heath Bell; the main question is whether Mike Adams or Luke Gregerson will take over as Padres closer or also get traded. But while everyone knew that the Mets wanted to trade Francisco Rodriguez (pictured), many thought that they would not be able to do so due to the clause in K-Rod’s contract guaranteeing him $17.5 million in 2012 if he finished 55 games this season.  And few would have guessed that not only would Rodriguez get moved more than two weeks before the trading deadline, but that he would begin his time in Milwaukee in a committee situation with John Axford, who has 20 straight saves.

At this writing (July 16), several closing situations are known to be in flux. On July 15, Carlos Marmol lost his closer job with the Cubs. The move is supposed to be temporary. Also on July 15, Matt Capps blew his seventh save for the Twins and could be replaced soon. On July 14, Toronto announced that Jon Rauch would get the next closing opportunity over Frank Francisco. In the wake of the Rodriguez trade, the Mets are going with a closer by committee. The Dodgers have tried numerous closers, with Javy Guerra getting the last few chances. Francisco Cordero of the Reds has three blown saves in his last four appearances.

But it is not enough for fantasy owners to pounce on a potential replacement at the first sign of closer turmoil. Or, for that matter, to get frustrated when another owner pounces before you do. Because the most unexpected thing about a new closer is that he’s often not the manager’s first choice.

When Fernando Rodney faltered for the Angels, Walden took over in early April and has held the job ever since. But Chris Sale was the first choice to replace Matt Thornton as White Sox closer, not Santos. Jose Contreras originally replaced the injured Brad Lidge in Philadelphia, not Madson. Cardinal manager Tony LaRussa tried several replacements for Ryan Franklin before settling on Salas.

The Mets, Cubs and Twins have veteran closers waiting in the wings to take over – Jason Isringhausen, Kerry Wood and Joe Nathan. Yet none of these established veterans is guaranteed the closing job. The Mets’ Bobby Parnell recently had a pitch clocked at 103 MPH. Sean Marshall got the first save in for the Cubs in place of Marmol. The Twins also have Glen Perkins as a possibility, and Nathan, even if he gets the job, has already lost it earlier this season. Likewise, Rauch and Francisco have previously gone back and forth this season as Jays’ closer.

In a year in which top closer Joakim Soria of Kansas City briefly lost his job, almost no closer is completely safe. Even star closers like Mariano Rivera and Brian Wilson have both had injury issues this seasons. In order to monitor which closers are struggling, you ideally need to monitor every box score.

But a less time-consuming strategy is to check the lowest-ranked closers over the last week on rosters in your league. I just did this in one of my leagues, and they are Cordero and Marmol. Also select on the last two weeks, since a closer who has been struggling recently but has not had any meltdowns over the last week may still be running out of chances. (Making these selections July 16 also is skewed by the All-Star break.)

Capps is not as near the bottom on the one-week list, but if I select on the last two weeks, Capps is ranked next-to-last, ahead of only Marmol. And, as I publish this piece, I see that Capps has just officially lost his job to Nathan.

Photo by afagen.

Fantasy Baseball:

As recently as 2009, Reynolds hit 44 homers with 24 steals. As a 3B, Reynolds was that much more valuable, and in 2010 he was often drafted as high as the second round.  Reynolds’ .260 BA in 2009 was up from .239 in ’08, giving hope that his BA would keep improving.

In 2009, Pena had 39 HR despite missing almost all of September.  His BA fell to .227 from .247 in ’08, so his draft status also went down, but the high HR totals meant that he was generally drafted as a starter at 1B,

But in 2010, both Reynolds and Pena fell below the Mendoza Line. Reynolds hit .198 while Pena hit .196. Reynolds did retain much of his power, with 32 HR in (in 79 fewer AB than ’09), while Pena hit 28 HR in about the same number of AB as he had when he hit 39 in ’09.  In 2011, Reynolds and Pena were no longer drafted as starters in most fantasy leagues.

This season, Uggla and Dunn have also sunk below the Mendoza Line. Uggla is hitting just .180, while Dunn is at .181 (as of June 15). And their power is way off as well. Uggla has nine HR, while Dunn has only seven.

Last year, Uggla hit .287 with 33 HR. Uggla was also leaving pitcher-friendly Florida to play in Atlanta. As a 2B, he soared into the upper rounds, especially after Chase Utley got hurt.

Dunn hit .260 with 38 HR in 2010. His move to the White Sox promised a more hitter-friendly ballpark and lineup than he had in Washington.

Uggla and Dunn also had a strong track record when it came to power. Uggla had averaged 31 HR over his five seasons. Dunn had hit at least 38 HR seven straight seasons, and with three different teams.

But Uggla and Dunn have another track record – one they share with Reynolds and Pena. All four players strike out a great deal.

Reynolds has fanned over 200 times in each of the last three seasons. No other player in baseball history has done so even once.

Pena struck out over 160 times in both 2008 and ’09 despite playing in fewer than 140 games both years. In 2010, he fanned 158 times.

Dunn struck out 177 times in ’09 and 199 times in ’10, the third season he has had more than 190 K.

In 2007, Uggla was second in MLB in strikeouts with 167. He was fourth in ‘08 with 171 K. Uggla fanned 150 times in ‘09 and 149 in ‘10

Before 2011, Dunn and Uggla were perceived as having risk due to all the strikeouts and low career BA. But this year, the risk was generally forgotten, particularly with Uggla.

In 2010, Uggla hit .287. He hit 44 points higher on the road, suggesting that he would do even better after leaving Florida.

But in the three previous seasons, Uggla had hit .245, 260 and 243. In his five-year career in Florida, Uggla did about the same at home (.261 BA, 78 HR) as on the road (.265 BA, 76 HR). And when Uggla’s BA jumped in 2010, so did his BABIP, from .274 to .330.

Dunn hit .260 in 2010 after hitting .267 the previous year. But he hit under.250 four of the previous five seasons and under .235 in two of those.

Owners who drafted Reynolds and Pena factored in the risk and are getting what they paid for. Reynolds is hitting just .204, but has 12 HR.  He currently has the exact same OPS in 2011 as he did in 2010 – .753.

Pena’s 2011 OPS is .736, almost the same as 2010’s .732. Pena is hitting .216 with nine HR.

It’s hard to believe that Uggla and Dunn’s power can disappear so rapidly. At this writing (June 15), both players show signs of recovery. Uggla has two HR in his last three games, while Dunn has two HR in his last four games.

But even a return to more typical BA levels going forward will still leave Uggla and Dunn with grim BAs at the end of the season, a reminder for owners drafting in 2012 that power hitters with low career BA and lots of strikeouts come with risk.

Photo by Dianne Pike.

Fantasy Baseball:

I took a look at slumping pitchers who threw no-hitters over the last three seasons to see how many were able to sustain their success. There were nine regular-season no-hitters from 2008-10, but I included a tenth game, Armando Galarrraga’s non-no-hitter, because any fantasy owner inclined to grab a pitcher off the wire who just pitched a no-hitter would not leave Galarraga out there just because the ump blew the call.

Of the ten pitchers, only three were not in a slump going into their big night. Jon Lester no-hit the Royals on May 19, 2008. In his previous four starts, Lester allowed only 6 ER in 25 1/3 IP. In one of those starts, Lester allowed just one hit in 8 IP. Ubaldo Jimenez no-hit the Braves in his third 2010 start, on April 17. In his first two starts, Jimenez allowed 3 ER in 12 IP. When Roy Halladay pitched his perfect game against the Marlins on May 29, 2010, he was already well into a season that would end with him being the unanimous choice for NL Cy Young.

As with Halladay, both Lester and Jimenez continued their success after the no-hitter and finished the season with some of the better stats in the league. Even though Jimenez tailed off after a sensational start, he still finished the year with 19 wins, a 2.88 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 214 K. Lester won 16 games with a 3.21 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 152 K.

So if a pitcher who is already doing well pitches a no-hitter, recent history suggests he will continue his success. But what about the seven pitchers who were slumping at the time of their no-hitters? Only two of them pitched well in the following weeks. The others pretty much resumed their slump.

NO-HIT PITCHERS WHO TURNED IT AROUND

Jonathan Sanchez, July 10, 2009
Giants 8, Padres 0
11 K, 0 BB, 110 pitches

Even after pitching a no-hitter in his last start before the All-Star break, Sanchez finished the first half with a 4.69 ERA and 1.50 WHIP, though he did have 79 K in 78 2/3 IP. Owners who picked up Sanchez were rewarded with second-half numbers of 3.83 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 98 K in 84 2/3 IP.

Matt Garza, July 26, 2010
Rays 5, Tigers 0
6 K, 1 BB, 120 pitches

On July 20, Garza gave up 7 ER and 10 hits in 6 1/3 IP against the Orioles, raising his ERA for the season to 4.36. The next start, Garza pitched his no-hitter, dropping his ERA to 4.06. In his next seven starts, Garza allowed one or fewer runs in five of them, lowering his ERA to 3.46, before a bad September stretch caused him to finish at 3.91.

NO-HIT PITCHERS WHO FAILED TO TURN IT AROUND

Carlos Zambrano, September 14, 2008
Cubs 5, Astros 0
10 K, 1 BB, 110 pitches

Carlos Zambrano made the All-Star team in 2008 with a 10-3 record, 2.84 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. But after a sensational July (1.78 ERA, 0.91 WHIP), Zambrano fell apart in August (7.43 ERA, 1.73 WHIP). After allowing 3 ER in 5 IP on September 2, Zambrano was shut down for a couple of weeks with a sore rotator cuff. When Zambrano returned on September 14, he pitched his no-hitter.

The no-hitter lowered Zambrano’s ERA to 3.41 and raised his record to 14-5. But owners with renewed faith in Zambrano would soon regret it. In his next start, Zambrano allowed 8 ER to the Cardinals in just 1 2/3 IP. In his last regular-season start, Zambrano allowed 5 ER to the Mets in 4 2/3 IP. In just two starts, his ERA rose half a run, and Zambrano finished at 3.91.

Mark Buehrle, July 23, 2009
White Sox 5, Rays 0 (perfect game)
6 K, 0 BB, 116 pitches

On July 12, Buehrle allowed 8 ER in 3 1/3 IP against the Twins, raising his ERA from 3.14 to 3.66. When Buehrle pitched a perfect game just two starts later, frustrated owners who had cut him probably scrambled to bring him back. However, Buehrle allowed 17 ER and 28 hits in 18 1/3 IP over his next three starts and was hit or miss the rest of the way. Even with the perfect game, Buehrle ended up with a 4.06 ERA and 1.33 in the second half of 2009.

Dallas Braden, May 9, 2010
A’s 4, Rays 0
6 K, 0 BB, 109 pitches (perfect game)

Before Braden’s perfecto, he had allowed 9 runs and 19 hits in 11 IP over his previous two starts, raising his ERA to 4.14. After the perfect game, Braden had a 4-2 record with a 3.33 ERA and many new fantasy owners.

But Braden would allow at least four ER in four of his next six starts. He would go winless in his next nine starts, during which he missed almost a month with elbow tendinitis. Braden’s next win did not come until July 25.

Owners who picked up Braden in the second half did get rewarded with a 3.19 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. Braden finished 2010 with a 3.50 ERA and 1.16 WHIP.

Armando Galarraga, June 2, 2010
Tigers 3, Indians 0 (should have been perfect game but allowed one hit due to missed call by umpire)
3 K, 0 BB, 88 pitches

After his “imperfect game,” Galarraga would have only one win and three quality starts in his next twelve starts. His ERA, which was 2.57 after the imperfect game, rose to 4.53 after that twelfth start on August 15. Galarraga finished with a 4.49 ERA and 1.34 WHIP and was traded to Arizona in the offseason.

Edwin Jackson, June 25, 2010
D-Backs 1, Rays 0
6 K, 8 BB, 150 pitches

Edwin Jackson brought a 5.05 ERA into his last June start. After his no-hitter, his ERA was down to 4.63 for the season and 2.11 for June, following 6.67 in April and 5.58 in May.

Instead of turning his season around, however, Jackson sank to a 7.24 ERA and 1.94 WHIP in five July starts. At the end of the month, the D-Backs traded him to the White Sox.

Once in the AL, the unpredictable Jackson responded with a sensational August (1.47 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 45 K in 36 2/3 IP) before a dismal September (5.23 ERA, 1.41 WHIP). Jackson’s second-half numbers were a 3.90 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. He finished 2010 with an overall ERA of 4.47 and 1.39 WHIP.

***

Overall, using Zambrano, Buehrle, Galarraga or Jackson after their great games turned out to be a big mistake, while using Sanchez worked out well.

Using Braden after his no-hitter was also a big mistake for several weeks, but owners who stuck with him were rewarded in the second half.

Using Garza after his no-hitter did pay off for several weeks, though his late slump undid most of the benefit.

Only one previously slumping pitcher, Sanchez, improved after his no-hitter and was able to maintain that improvement.

Francisco Liriano, May 3, 2011
Twins 1, White Sox 0
2 K, 6 BB, 123 pitches

So recent history suggests that Liriano will not turn his season around. And while any no-hitter is impressive, Liriano is one of two pitchers in this group to have more walks than strikeouts and throw over 120 pitches. The other, Jackson (who coincidentally faced Liriano in Liriano’s no-no) would allow at least 4 ER in each of his next five starts.

Even after pitching a no-hitter, we need to see more from Liriano before believing that he is on his way to regaining his 2010 form.

Photo by steffofsd.

Fantasy Baseball:

It’s way too early to think about cutting a player who was the third-ranked shortstop just last year. But it is not too early to wonder why 81% of Jeter’s Yahoo! owners are still starting 2011’s 32^th-ranked shortstop.

Just two seasons ago, Jeter was a five-category star with a .334 BA, 107 runs, 30 steals, 18 HR and 66 RBI. Last year, Jeter suffered a significant drop in three categories – .270 BA, 10 HR and 18 steals, while maintaining runs (111) and RBI (67). But Jeter’s runs scored, 19 higher than any other shortstop, good steals total and double-digit homers kept him in the top tier of shortstops.

At the end of April, Jeter had a .250 BA, 13 runs and 6 RBI along with those zeroes in HR and SB. His best category, runs, still put him 12^th among shortstops, a far cry from last year’s commanding lead in that category. Jeter’s OPS was just .582.

Jeter’s defenders will note his .313 lifetime BA and likelihood of huge runs totals batting first or second in the Yankees’ powerhouse lineup. Even if Jeter were moved to the bottom of the lineup, he would still be in line to score plenty of runs. In 2010, Brett Gardner started 134 games for the Yankees, batted eighth or ninth in two-thirds of them, and still scored 97 runs.

And the consensus top-ranked shortstop, Hanley Ramirez, has even worse stats through the end of April: .200 BA, 0 HR, 9 RBI, 9 runs, 3 SB, .558 OPS.

Let’s give Jeter the benefit of the doubt and assume that his BA rebounds, or at least ends up as high as 2010’s .270, which would put him in line to continue to have high runs totals and competitive RBI wherever he bats in the Yankee lineup. But even then, Jeter will still have a dim fantasy future if he doesn’t run or hit with power.

Last year, only three of the top 15 shortstops failed to hit 10 homers. Four hit over 20 and another four hit at least 15. So if a shortstop doesn’t reach double digits in HR, he needs to make up for it somewhere else.

Rafael Furcal hit only 8 HR, but had 22 SB and a .300 BA. Furcal had just 383 AB. Omar Infante also had 8 HR, but hit .321 with 7 steals.

The third shortstop who failed to reach double-digit homers, Elvis Andrus, had no homers at all, but stole 32 bases.

If Jeter’s power outage continues, it doesn’t seem likely that he’ll make up for it in stolen bases. Jeter’s 30 steals two years ago was the only time in the last four seasons, he’s gone above 20 steals. He had 15 in 2007, 11 in ’09 and 18 last year. So far this year, Jeter has only attempted one steal. Jeter turns 37 in June, further decreasing the likelihood of steals.

Even in the Yankee lineup, Jeter’s runs scored will suffer if he can’t boost his other numbers. Gardner’s 97 runs came with the help of a .383 OBP, 47 steals and 32 extra-base hits. Jeter’s OBP this year is .323 and he has just two extra-base hits. While the Yankees hit plenty of homers, Jeter will be a lot more likely to score if he’s able to put himself in scoring position, not to mention driving himself in via the longball.

Jeter’s power outage dates back well into last season, when he hit only two homers after June 12.

According to Fangraphs, Jeter’s GB% has risen from 57% in 2009 to 65.7% in 2010 to 72.3% this year. Meanwhile, his LD% has fallen from 20.3% to 16.1% to 9.6%.

It’s still too early in the season to pronounce anyone a fantasy bust, whether it’s Hanley Ramirez or Derek Jeter. But Ramirez is only 27 and, even in an off-year, was the 24^th-ranked player in Yahoo! in 2010. He may not end up justifying a first-round pick, but his owners are highly unlikely to find a better option.

Jeter owners, however, need to at least start thinking about other options, even with pickings slim for shortstops on the waiver wire, especially with Jed Lowrie likely taken in your league and Willie Bloomquist and Tsuyoshi Nishioka on the DL.

Photo by Keith Allison.

Fantasy Baseball:

The closers ranked 14-18 were Andrew Bailey, Joe Nathan, Ryan Franklin (pictured), Brad Lidge and Matt Thornton. Nathan and Franklin have lost their jobs. Thornton hasn’t officially lost his job, but with four blown saves already, things don’t look good. Bailey and Lidge are on the disabled list, with Bailey hoping to make it back in early May and Lidge possibly out until the All-Star break.

The next five closers are listed below. Four of the five appear safe as of now, with only John Axford in potential trouble.

Francisco Cordero (2 SV, 0 BS, 2.25 ERA, 1.12 WHIP)

Last year, Cordero had 8 BS along with a 3.84 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. Cordero, in the last year of his contract, looked as if his job could be threatened by phenom Aroldis Chapman. But Cordero has looked good so far and Chapman has had to take a few days off after shoulder inflammation caused his velocity to dip to the low 90s.

Leo Nunez (5 SV, 0 BS, 2.00 ERA, 1.11 WHIP)

After blowing three saves and compiling a 9.31 ERA last August, Nunez lost the Marlins closer job to Clay Hensley, who had seven saves in seven chances in September and October. Hensley did not allow a run after August 24.

This spring, Nunez regained the closer job and has pitched well so far. But so has Hensley, who has a 1.23 ERA and five holds.

John Axford (3 SV, 2 BS, 8.53 ERA, 2.21 WHIP)

While Axford’s ugly ERA stems primarily from his March 31 outing, when he gave up four earned runs, Axford has also been shaky lately, allowing one ER on 1 H and 2 BB in 1 IP in each of his last two outings.

Takashi Saito had 38 saves for the Dodgers in 2007 and a total of 81 SV for L.A. from 2006-8. The Brewers signed him to be their setup man, but Saito is currently on the DL with a bad hamstring. Saito turned 41 in February.

In Saito’s absence, Kameron Loe has already earned five holds in setup duty. Loe has pitched well except for a game against the Nationals on April 17 when he gave up 3 ER and 4 H in 1/3 IP, leaving his season marks at 3.86 ERA and 1.39 WHIP.

Brandon Lyon (4 SV, 1 BS, 4.26 ERA, 1.88 WHIP)

Lyon’s numbers are skewed by his awful first appearance on April 1, when he allowed 3 ER on 6 hits in 1/3 IP and blew a save at Philadelphia. Since then, Lyon has allowed no runs and five hits in six appearances totaling six IP. Lyon has not issued a single walk all season.

Astro setup man Wilton Lopez is currently on the DL with elbow nerve irritation. Mark Melancon has a 2.08 ERA and1.04 WHIP out of the Astros’ pen, but allowed four runs, two earned, and got a blown save and a loss in his last appearance on April 17.

Joel Hanrahan (5 SV, 0 BS, 2.70 ERA, 1.30 WHIP)

After collecting 20 saves over the last three seasons, Hanrahan finally has a closer job all to himself. Hanrahan won the job in the spring over Evan Meek, who made the All-Star team last year but was only four of ten in save opportunities.  This season, Meek allowed seven runs (four earned) in his first three appearances, then missed time with shoulder tightness.

Last season, the Pirates traded their closer, Octavio Dotel, at the July 31 deadline.

The rest of the preseason list consisted of Fernando Rodney, who has already lost his job closing for the Angels, David Aardsma, who appears almost ready to come off the DL and regain the Mariners’ closer job from Brandon League, and the five bullpens that looked as if they could end up with bullpens by committee. All five have seen changes since the preseason.

Atlanta: Craig Kimbrel was shaky in the preseason, but he has a firm grip on the closer job now.

Baltimore: Kevin Gregg has two saves and one blown save along with a 4.50 ERA and 2.00 WHIP. Koji Uehara has a 1.59 ERA and 1.06 WHIP.

Toronto: Frank Francisco was activated from the DL and is expected to regain the closer job from Jon Rauch in the near future.

Tampa Bay: Kyle Farnsworth has taken over the closer job with four saves, one win, a 1.42 ERA and 0.79 WHIP.

Washington: Sean Burnett got the early save chances, but the last two saves have gone to Drew Storen.

Photo by shgmom56.

Fantasy Baseball:

(The first number is the catcher’s rank among all catchers in Yahoo! so far this season. The second number is percent of Yahoo! leagues in which this catcher is owned.)

Bear in mind that sample sizes so far are quite small, but in some instances catchers are continuing trends from last season.

So far, moving into the Yankee lineup appears to have rejuvenated Russell Martin (1, 73%). Even batting ninth, Martin still got to follow Jorge Posada at seven and Curtis Granderson batting eighth Wednesday night. Thanks to his two-homer game at Fenway Park, Martin actually has better stats on the road than at Yankee Stadium. Just remember that Martin’s last good year was 2008 – he had an OPS  of .680 in ’09 and his OPS in ’10 was .679 before his season ended in August.

Nick Hundley (2, 22%) had 16 HR in 529 AB over the last two seasons. With Yorvit Torrealba gone, Hundley now has the Padres’ catching job to himself. Hundley began the year batting eighth, but after his hot start, he was moved up to sixth. Hundley obviously won’t sustain his .406 BA and, even with that mark, has nine Ks in 32 AB, but his OPS of around .720 each of the last two seasons shows that he can be serviceable at the thin catcher position.

Take away his 1-for-6 against lefties and Alex Avila (4, 23%) has an OPS of 1.037. Last year in 104 games, Avila had an OPS of just .502 against lefties vs .676 against righties, making it more likely that he won’t even be in the lineup against lefties. But the 24-year-old shows signs of having value even as a platoon player.

Jorge Posada (6, 72%) leads all catchers with four HR and also has seven RBI and five runs scored, though his .182 BA so far is a category killer. But take away Posada’s two road games, where he’s 0-for-7, and his BA is now .231 with the same counting stats. Posada looks like someone who might best be used only at home:

Posada’s performance since moving to the new Yankee Stadium:
2009 OPS: Home: 1.013; Away: .760
2010 OPS: Home: 922; Away: .694

Ryan Hanigan (7, 7%) is hitting .304 with two HR, six RBI and six runs. But take away his two-HR, 4-for-4 game against Milwaukee on April 3, and he’s hitting .158 with no HR, two RBI and three runs. Even worse, Hanigan is in a timeshare with Ramon Hernandez; the two catchers have each started six of the Reds’ first 12 games.

Carlos Ruiz (8, 42%) is off to a nice start, hitting .333 with an OPS of .890. But these marks are not drastically higher than Ruiz’s .302 BA and .847 OPS in 2010. Ruiz also had a .780 OPS in 2009. In 2010, Ruiz received a fifth-place vote, a sixth-place vote and a tenth-place vote for NL MVP. Also in 2010, Ruiz batted seventh about half the time and eighth in almost all other games, but so far this year, he is only batting seventh.

So far, J.P. Arencibia (11, 51%) is having a similar season to Hanigan. Arencibia is hitting .323 with two HR and six RBI. But take away his two-HR Opening Day game on April 1 against Minnesota, and Arencibia is hitting .259 with no HR and one RBI. However, Arencibia has a lot more upset than Hanigan, hitting 32 HR in AAA in 2010.

Photo by Keith Allison.

Fantasy Baseball:

Second-Guessing a Fantasy Draft: Part One

11^th round (126^th pick)
The pick: Clay Buchholz

I hoped to get Buchholz or Brett Anderson here. Both young pitchers had great ERAs last year, good WHIPs and poor K ratios. Buchholz has the advantage of pitching for Boston – he had 17 wins last year, while Anderson has health issues. But Anderson also has a much better BB/9.  Anderson went two picks earlier, making my choice for me.

12^th round (139^th pick)
The pick: Chris Young

I really needed more pitching at this point, but Arizona outfielder Young has a Yahoo! ADP of 89.7 and there seemed to be no good reason for him to slide, so I had to grab him for my third outfielder. By the time I would pick again, five more starters would be gone – Wandy Rodriguez, Ted Lilly, Madison Bumgarner, Jeremy Hellickson and Phil Hughes. Rodriguez had shoulder issues at the time.  I would have liked to draft the upside of Bumgarner or Hellickson, but not until later in the draft.

13^th round (150^th pick)
The pick: Frank Francisco

After my pick of Young, the only other reliever who came off the board was Aroldis Chapman, another good upside pick that I thought went too soon. Francisco was the last reliever available who appeared to have a closer job. He had been scratched from an appearance with shoulder trouble, but it had not yet gotten to the point where he was going to miss time. Still, I can’t complain that Francisco is now on the DL – this is a pitcher who was on the DL three times last year. And he appears to be coming back reasonably soon and regaining his role as Jays’ closer. But those of us who own Francisco can’t take anything for granted, and now the Jays have activated Octavio Dotel.

14^th round (163^th pick)
The pick: Josh Beckett

Certainly worth a shot at this point, though after his mediocre first start, I’m already wondering if I would have been better off going for Jhoulys Chacin or Hiroki Kuroda, who both went a few picks later. I’m already planning to bench Beckett Sunday night against the Yankees and he is a candidate to be cut if I need roster space.

15^th round (174^th pick)
The pick: Daniel Hudson

It was between Hudson and Colby Lewis, so I went for the National Leaguer who was younger and had the splashier 2010.  Lewis went with the following pick.

16^th round (187^th pick)
The pick: Kevin Gregg

With a shaky bullpen so far of Ryan Franklin and Frank Francisco, I needed more options. At the time, it was not clear if Gregg or Koji Uehara would be the Orioles closer. But Gregg was healthy and Uehara at the time was sidelined with elbow trouble. Gregg is also the kind of player who gets no respect but somehow has ended up saving an average of 30 games over the last four years.

17^th round (198^th pick)
The pick: Carlos Quentin

I would like to tell you that I knew all along that Quentin would be the top-rated player in Yahoo! after the first week, but at this stage of the draft, I was just looking for someone to compete for the utility spot. Jaime Garcia, Brian Matusz and Johnny Venters, who appeared ready to unseat Craig Kimbrel as Braves closer at that point, all went in the next few picks.

18^th round (211^th pick)
The pick: Koji Uehara

With Venters gone, I did something I don’t know if I’ve ever done before – handcuff a closer. And the Orioles’ closer, no less. But Gregg remains far from a sure thing, so I’m holding on to both of them as of now.

In hindsight, I should have taken Alex Gordon, who went with the next pick. Gordon has 3B eligibility in this Yahoo! league as well as OF, and I wouldn’t have minded a backup to Aramis Ramirez.

As it turned out, the owner who drafted Gordon cut him before the season started, so when Gordon got off to a fast start, I was able to pick him up.

19^th round (222^th pick)
The pick: Jose Tabata

Just going for upside here. Adam Lind and Luke Scott were also available. Both Tabata and Lind are off to fast starts, while Scott has missed time with a groin injury and is hitless so far. With Prince Fielder, Robinson Cano, Jay Bruce and Carlos Quentin in my lineup, I went for speed over power for what will likely be a bench spot.

20^th round (235^th pick)
The pick: Javier Vazquez

At this stage, why not take a chance on Vazquez regaining his form in the NL East. However, he did so poorly in his first start that when I needed to cut someone, he was my first choice to go.

21^th round (246^th pick)
The pick: Gaby Sanchez

22^th round (259^th pick)
The pick: Denard Span

At this point, you’re pretty much picking players who are going to get cut sooner or later. But you can still get lucky this far down. Ike Davis and Russell Martin both went earlier in round 21. Sanchez and Span have both hit well in the first week, but they remain at the bottom of the roster.

***

My team at the end of the draft:

C         Carlos Santana
1B       Prince Fielder
2B       Robinson Cano
SS        Jose Reyes
3B       Aramis Ramirez
OF       Alex Rios
OF       Jay Bruce
OF       Chris Young
UT       Carlos Quentin

SP        Clayton Kershaw
SP        Tommy Hanson
SP        Clay Buchholz
SP        Josh Beckett
SP        Daniel Hudson
RP       Ryan Franklin
RP       Frank Francisco
RP       Kevin Gregg
RP       Koji Uehara

BENCH
OF       Jose Tabata
1B       Gaby Sanchez
OF       Denard Span
SP        Javier Vazquez

So far, I have made two roster moves. When I picked up Gordon, I cut Vazquez. Earlier, when Francisco went on the DL, it opened up a spot that I eventually used last Sunday on Jordan Walden after another Fernando Rodney meltdown. Two days later, Walden was named the new Angels closer.

If Walden keeps the job and Francisco makes it back soon, my weak bullpen is suddenly a strong one. But with Vazquez already gone and Beckett a question mark, my rotation could use a boost.

Photo by Keith Allison.