It’s not as if all the news on Lincecum is bad. His K/9 rate is actually up from last year, from 9.1 to 9.8. Lincecum had a 9.8 K/9 for all of 2010 and it led the league.  So even though Lincecum’s velocity is down, it’s not stopping him from getting strikeouts.

Lincecum only has two wins, but pitching for the punchless Giants, he doesn’t get a lot of wins anyway. In 2011, despite his otherwise excellent stats, Lincecum only had 13 wins.

Lincecum’s 2012 BABIP is .344 – his career mark is .296.

But Lincecum’s BB/9 has risen to 4.9 (it was 3.6 in 2011).

While 10 starts is almost a third of a season,  Lincecum still has time to end up with a decent season if he can turn it around soon. Lincecum has averaged 33 starts in his four full seasons.  Assuming Lincecum averages 6 2/3 IP per start (his career average is 6.55), he will pitch 153 1/3 more innings this season.  If Lincecum gives up 39 ER and 185 hits and walks over those 153 1/3 IP, he will have numbers the rest of the way (2.28 ERA, 1.22 WHIP) that will be along the lines of how he did in the second half of 2011 (2.31 ERA, 1.22 WHIP). Lincecum would then finish 2012 with a 3.35 ERA and 1.31 WHIP.

While all of this is theoretical, the point is that if Lincecum starts performing as he has in the past, he can still wind up with numbers that, while not befitting his draft status, would at least be in line with his 2010 numbers (3.43 ERA, 1.27 WHIP).

Speaking of 2010, Lincecum endured an August that was even worse than either of his two lousy 2012 months.  Lincecum had a 7.82 ERA and 1.82 WHIP.

But in September 2010, Lincecum went 5-1 with a 1.94 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and  52 K in 41 2/3 IP. Lincecum then led the Giants to the world championship with a 4-1 record, 2.43 ERA, 0.92 WHIP and 43 K in 37 IP.

As long as Lincecum is not hurt, he has shown that he can make a dramatic rebound from pitching poorly. With other owners unlikely to offer anything approaching fair value in a trade, continuing to wait for that rebound probably remains the best option for frustrated Lincecum owners.

Photo by SD Dirk.

The post Time to Freak Out Over Lincecum? appeared first on The Faster Times.

With all of these third basemen injured at the same time, and joining yet another top third baseman, Washington’s Ryan Zimmerman, already on the DL with shoulder inflammation (but expected back in a few days) it figures to be a scramble to find replacements. Here are some possibilities who are available in at least 60% of Yahoo! leagues.

Chipper Jones (37% owned in Yahoo!) turned 40 in April. He had knee surgery in March, and though he returned in late April,  still needs frequent time off. Yet when he does play, in 13 starts Jones has 4 HR and 14 RBI while hitting .273. On May 2, Jones not only played all 11 innings of a game against the Phillies, but hit a walk-off homer in the bottom of the 11th to win it for the Braves.  Jones has an OPS of .837. In his 19-year career, Jones has never had an OPS below .800.

Pedro Alvarez (36%) hit .270 with 13 HR and 53 RBI after the All-Star break in his rookie year of 2010. Alvarez, the second overall pick in the 2008 amateur draft*, seemed headed for stardom. But the luster wore off in 2011, when he hit just .191 with 4 HR in 235 AB. Alvarez started 2012 going 2-for-30, but then heated up. On May 3, Alvarez hit his seventh homer to raise his BA to .257, though he has 24 K in 70 AB. (The player picked third in 2008, right behind Alvarez, was Eric Hosmer, and Buster Posey went fifth. The top pick, Tim Beckham, was suspended 50 games on May 1 for violating minor league drug policy.)

Oft-injured Jed Lowrie (34%) missed the first few games of the season with a thumb injury, but since returning has gotten off to a fast start with the Astros, batting .329 with a .927 OPS.  Lowrie is only playing shortstop this season, but still has 3B eligibility from last year, when he filled in for Youkilis while a member of the Red Sox. Boston traded Lowrie to Houston along with Kyle Weiland for Mark Melancon.  Weiland just underwent shoulder surgery and Melancon was sent to the minors after starting the season with an ERA of 49.50.

Ty Wigginton (20%) has a career 162-game average of 21 HR and 75 RBI. As recently as 2010, he went 22-76 for Baltimore. Wigginton hit .322 with an .853 OPS in April, but has gotten off to a slower start in May. He has usually batted fifth or sixth for the Phillies this year. Wigginton also has eligibility at 1B and OF.

Will Middlebrooks (13%) was hitting .333 with 9 HR and a 1.057 OPS at Pawtucket when the Red Sox called him up to fill in for Youkilis. Middlebrooks is one of the Red Sox’ top prospects, so he could be worth a speculative add if he flourishes in place of the injury-prone Youkilis.

Photo by SD Dirk.

The post Fantasy Baseball: Kung Fu Panda Latest Top 3B to Get Hurt appeared first on The Faster Times.

With Wilson done for 2012, that makes five out of the closers generally considered in the top 15 to suffer significant injuries. Kansas City’s Joakim Soria and Cincinnati’s Ryan Madson are also out for the year, while Washington’s Drew Storen and Boston’s Andrew Bailey are out until the summer at least. In addition, Tampa’s Kyle Farnsworth is out and not expected back until sometime in May.

With the exception of Cincinnati’s Sean Marshall, none of the initial top choices to be the new closer has become the clear-cut choice for that role as of now.

When Bailey got hurt, Mark Melancon looked like the logical choice to become Boston’s new closer. Melancon saved 20 games last year with a 2.78 ERA for Houston. Melancon’s ownership soared – only to see manager Bobby Valentine announce that Alfredo Aceves would be his closer.

On Opening Day, Melancon and Aceves combined to help Boston lose to Detroit in the ninth. The following day, Aceves blew the save in the ninth and Melancon blew the save and the game in the eleventh. Since then, Aceves has solidified his hold on the closer job, getting two saves in two chances and pitching a 1-2-3 ninth in both cases.

When Farnsworth got hurt, Joel Peralta appeared to be the top candidate to fill in as Tampa’s closer. Peralta got six saves last year while Farnsworth was out. Peralta finished 2011 with a 2.93 ERA and 0.2 WHIP.

Peralta made his first appearance on April 6 in the eighth inning of a game the Rays were losing at the time to the Yankees. He allowed two walks in a third of an inning. Fernando Rodney pitched the ninth and got the win when the Rays rallied in the bottom of the ninth.

Peralta made his first ninth-inning appearance on April 7, entering with two on and one out with the Rays up, 8-3. After striking out Derek Jeter, Peralta gave up a three-run homer to Nick Swisher. The game was now a save situation, and Peralta was pulled in favor of Rodney, who got the save.

Rodney, who was replaced as Angels closer early last season, is nobody’s idea of a solid closer choice. Nobody, that is, but Tampa manager Joe Maddon, the man who made the unlikely Farnsworth his closer last year.

On April 16, Rodney earned his fourth save. Peralta, meanwhile, has a 27.00 ERA.

So in the cases of replacing Bailey and Farnsworth, the owner quick enough to make what looked like the best choice first turned out to be wrong.

The same may yet be true in Kansas City, where shaky Jonathan Broxton blew a save by hitting a batter to load the bases and hitting the next batter to force in the winning run. The last time a pitcher had two straight HBP to end a game was 46 years ago. Greg Holland looms as a potential replacement, though Holland has had some shaky appearances of his own.

In Washington, a committee has replaced Storen as of now. Brad Lidge has a save and a blow save, while Henry Rodriguez has a save and a loss.

In San Francisco, manager Bruce Bochy also says he intends to go with a closer by committee.  Sergio Romo looks to be the slightly more likely choice, and Yahoo! owners now have him 46% owned, while Santiago Casilla is at 29% owned. But Casilla picked up six saves in 2011 when Wilson was hurt late in the season. Bochy’s committee may also include Javier Lopez, who has a Yahoo! ownership of 4%.

If Romo or Casilla is available in your league, either is worth a speculative add at this point. If both are taken, keep them on your watch list, since someone could be dropped prematurely. Holland lost ownership after Broxton won the Royals’ closer job, and with Broxton’s struggles, the job may yet be Holland’s.

Photo by artolog.

The post Fantasy Baseball: Fear the Closer Injury – Brian Wilson Latest to Go Down appeared first on The Faster Times.

TIER ONE

Craig Kimbrel, Braves Mariano Rivera, Yankees Jonathan Papelbon, Phillies

Don’t draft closers early, but don’t let these guys fall too far, either. Kimbrel had a rookie season for the ages, with 46 saves, 38 straight scoreless appearances and 127 K in just 77 IP. After fifteen season as Yankee closer, Rivera is as great as ever, except maybe for a slight lag in K.  Papelbon rebounded last year after a subpar 2010. His career marks are 2.33 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 10.7 K/9 and 37 saves per 162 games.

TIER TWO

John Axford, Brewers Drew Storen, Nationals Heath Bell, Marlins Jose Valverde, Tigers Brian Wilson, Giants J.J. Putz, Diamondbacks Ryan Madson, Reds

As of March 23, Storen is said to be not seriously hurt, but keep an eye on him. Bell’s K/9 went from 11.06 in 2010 to 7.32. Now he leaves Petco, where he has a career 2.39 ERA. Valverde’s K/9 has dropped for five straight seasons but still had an 8.6 last year. After going 49-for-49 in save opportunities in 2011, he now has 51 straight saves overall.  Madson gets moved down a couple of spots to the bottom of the tier due to his uncertain status now, but bear in mind that Wilson missed most of August and September last year with elbow inflammation and Putz missed a month in the middle of last season, also with elbow inflammation.

TIER THREE Joel Hanrahan, Pirates Jordan Walden, Angels Andrew Bailey, Red Sox Rafael Betancourt, Rockies Carlos Marmol, Cubs Jason Motte, Cardinals Huston Street, Padres Joe Nathan, Rangers

Rookie Walden did well overall, but did blow 10 saves. Betancourt, who turns 37 in April, has 27 career saves – and 33 blown saves. Motte didn’t get his first save until August 28, but had five saves in the postseason. Street has a 4.11 lifetime ERA at Coors and now he gets to play in Petco. But if he does well, that might increase the odds of him getting traded during the season and losing his closer gig. Nathan had a 3.04 ERA at home and 7.50 on the road, and now he leaves pitcher-friendly Minnesota for Texas.

TIER FOUR

Brandon League, Mariners Sergio Santos, Blue Jays Kyle Farnsworth, Rays Jim Johnson, Orioles Frank Francisco, Mets Chris Perez, Indians Grant Balfour, Oakland Brett Myers, Astros Sean Marshall, Reds* Kenley Jansen, Dodgers Javy Guerra, Dodgers Greg Holland, Royals Jonathan Broxton, Royals

The first eight closers on this list all have closer jobs as of now, but nobody has a long track record of success. As of March 23, the situations with the Dodgers and Royals are uncertain, with Jansen and Holland generally seen as the better pitchers long-term, but Guerra and Broxton more likely to win the gigs in the short run due to prior closing experience.

*Update, March 24 – With Madson out for the year, Marshall is the leading candidate for saves in the Reds’ pen.

Photo by Keith Allison.

The post Fantasy Baseball Closer Preview: Soria Injury Shows Closer Risk appeared first on The Faster Times.

TIER ONE

Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers Roy Halladay, Phillies Justin Verlander, Tigers Cliff Lee, Phillies Felix Hernandez, Mariners Tim Lincecum, Giants

Kershaw led the NL with 21 W, 2.28 ERA, 248 K and 0.98 WHIP, but Halladay (19 W, 2.35 ERA, 220 K and 1.04. WHIP) and Lee (17 W, 2.40 ERA, 238 K and 1.03 WHIP) were not far behind. While Halladay has been consistently great for years, Kershaw gets the top spot as a rising young star (turned 24 March 19) who has had an ERA below 3 for three straight seasons. Meanwhile, Halladay, who turns 35 in May, has struggled this spring with reduced velocity, but has denied any arm problems.

Verlander had the gaudiest stats of any pitcher. His 24 W and 0.92 WHIP led all MLB pitchers by a wide margin and his 250 K were also best overall. Verlander also had a 2.40 ERA. But while Verlander has also very consistent, with strong stats in five out of six seasons, his previous bests in ERA and WHIP were 2010’s 3.37 and 1.16. A 50-point BABIP drop contributes to the idea that 2011 might have been a career year. Conversely, a 44-point rise in BABIP suggests that Hernandez pitched in bad luck last year and that the still-young star, who turns 26 in April, will again be a king.

TIER TWO

Cole Hamels, Phillies Jered Weaver, Angels Zack Greinke, Brewers Dan Haren, Angels CC Sabathia, Yankees David Price, Rays

Hamels turned in a career-best 2.79 ERA and 0.99 WHIP and now heads into his free-agent year. After a slow start in Milwaukee following his recovery from a broken rib suffered while playing basketball, Greinke had a 2.59 ERA in the second half  and  a 10.54 K/9 for the season, best in MLB among players with more than 150 IP. Price’s ERA jumped to 3.49, but much of it was due to a spike in HR – his K/9 and BB/9 both improved.

TIER THREE

Jon Lester, Red Sox Matt Cain, Giants Yovani Gallardo, Brewers Stephen Strasburg, Nationals Madison Bumgarner, Giants C.J. Wilson, Angels Daniel Hudson, Diamondbacks

Cain’s ERA the last three seasons: 2.89, 3.14, 2.88. In his six seasons, his BAA is .227. Gallardo struck out 200 for the third straight year. In the second half, his ERA was 3.20 and his WHIP was 1.02. Strasburg figures to be top tier before long, but he is coming off Tommy John surgery, and even if he regains his form quickly, figures to have an IP cap of about 160. After struggling in the first half, Bumgarner put up a 2.52 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in the second half.  Bumgarner turns 23 in August.

TIER FOUR

James Shields, Rays Adam Wainwright, Cardinals Mat Latos, Reds Yu Darvish, Rangers Ian Kennedy, Diamondbacks Josh Johnson, Marlins Tommy Hanson, Braves

The all-or-nothing tier. Shields and Kennedy are coming off of what could be career years. Wainwright is coming back from Tommy John surgery. Latos moves from friendly Petco to Great American.  Darvish is highly touted, but is making his MLB debut. Johnson is great when he’s healthy, but the injury-prone pitcher made only nine starts last year and just 88 over the last five seasons. Hanson is coming back from shoulder issues last year and a concussion earlier this spring.

TIER FIVE

Matt Garza, Cubs Matt Moore, Rays Josh Beckett, Red Sox Brandon Beachy, Braves Jordan Zimmermann, Nationals Max Scherzer, Tigers Michael Pineda, Yankees Chris Carpenter, Cardinals

Moore has only 19 1/3 MLB IP (10 in the postseason) and is not even assured of making the starting rotation. But the phenom was pretty phenomenal last year, striking out 11 Yankees in 5 IP at Yankee Stadium in his first MLB start and shutting out Texas in 7 IP at Texas in the playoffs. Beckett’s 2.89 ERA and 1.03 WHIP were well below his career averages of 3.84 and 1.22. His .245 BABIP was down 93 points from 2010. Pineda has one year in the majors, and in the second half of that one year, his ERA was 5.12. Away from SAFECO, his ERA was 4.40. Now he will pitch in Yankee Stadium, never a sure thing for any pitcher. Pineda has been shaky so far this spring. Carpenter has a bulging disk in his neck and may not be ready for Opening Day. Carpenter turns 37 in April.

TIER SIX

Ricky Romero, Jays Anibal Sanchez, Marlins Jeremy Hellickson, Rays Ubaldo Jimenez, Indians Gio Gonzalez, Nationals Shaun Marcum, Brewers Cory Luebke, Padres Brandon Morrow, Jays

In his third season, Romero put career bests of 15 W, 2.92 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 178 K. Helliickson was AL Rookie of the Year with a 2.95 ERA and 1.15 WHIP, but he also had a subpar 5.57 K/9 and 1.62 K/BB.  Jimenez had a 5.10 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in 11 starts after being traded to Cleveland. After four spring starts, his ERA is 9.31. Gonzalez had a 3.12 ERA, but his ERA was almost a run lower at home. He had a 3.23 ERA in 2010 – 2.56 in Oakland and 3.92 on the road.

Photo by Keith Allison.

The post Fantasy Baseball SP Preview: Verlander, Kershaw Rule the Stats appeared first on The Faster Times.

Please note that outfielders such as Jose Bautista and Michael Cuddyer who are more likely to be used at other positions where they are eligible are not included in this list.

TIER ONE

Matt Kemp, Dodgers Ryan Braun, Brewers Carlos Gonzalez, Rockies Justin Upton, Diamondbacks Jacoby Ellsbury, Red Sox

Matt Kemp has at least 26 HR three straight seasons and at has at least 34 SB and a .290 BA three of the last four years. So even if 2011 was a career year, Kemp could be the best bet for power with lots of speed.

Ryan Braun’s OPS was over .930 in 2007, ’09 and ’11. Prince Fielder’s OPS was over .980 those three seasons. Neither player has had another season over .900. Now Braun is without his lineup mate and he has to deal with the fallout from his overturned PED suspension.  It’s not that Braun’s 25-103-.304 with 14 steals in 2010 was such a failure, but he could take a step back from his MVP 2011.

Carlos Gonzalez’ 2010 was similar to Kemp’s 2011, and if Gonzalez hadn’t gotten hurt in September, he might have come close to repeating it. Gonzalez has a career 1.057 OPS at Coors Field.

Rising star Justin Upton, still only 24, had career highs in HR, RBI, runs, steals and saw his K rate drop to 18.7% from 26.6% in 2010.

Jacoby Ellsbury had 20 career HR before hitting 32 in 2011. So we need to see if the power is real. While 39 steals is still a great number, Ellsbury, who turns 29 in September, may be less likely to approach his 70 steals in 2009.

TIER TWO

Curtis Granderson, Yankees Giancarlo Stanton, Marlins Josh Hamilton, Rangers Andrew McCutchen, Pirates Nelson Cruz, Rangers Hunter Pence, Phillies Matt Holliday, Cardinals Jay Bruce, Reds

Granderson’s combination of power and speed (41 HR, 25 steals), along with his newfound ability to hit lefties, raising his BA to a more respectable .262, put him at the top of the tier.

Stanton also hit .262, along with 34 HR. Could pass Granderson in yearly HR as soon as this year.

Rising star McCutchen had 23-23 year but only hit .259. But he was hitting .274 late in August before a .171 September

Hamilton can’t stay healthy, but did go 25-94-.298 in 121 games. So you’re likely to get a top player for a good chunk of the year at least, and it could always be the year where he manages to stay healthy.

Cruz averaged only 120 games played last three years, but also averaged 28 HR/year. So like Hamilton, he should at least give you ¾ of a strong year. But while Hamilton’s lifetime BA is .308, Cruz’ is .270, and Cruz does not run as much as he used to.

Pence did great upon arriving in Philly, though he did stop running and only hit two HR last year at Citizens Bank Park. No Ryan Howard in lineup for first part of year.

Holliday remains good for BA and some power, but hasn’t topped 30 HR since 2007 in Colorado. He used to be good for double digits in steals but just two last year.  No more Albert Pujols in lineup.

Bruce was very streaky – his OPS month by month from April to July: .681 1.140 .649 .805. Hit 32 HR after three seasons in 20s. Not a product of Great American – half his HR were on the road. Turns 25 in April.

TIER THREE

Shane Victorino, Phillies Michael Bourn, Braves Shin-Soo Choo, Indians Desmond Jennings, Rays Corey Hart, Brewers B.J. Upton, Rays Chris Young, Diamondbacks Adam Jones, Orioles Alex Gordon, Royals Ichiro Suzuki, Mariners

Bourn’s OPS dropped 92 points in Atlanta from Houston. Hart just had knee surgery, but said to be recovering fast. It’s B.J. Upton’s contract year, so will this be the season he finally breaks out? Gordon’s BABIP jumped 104 points last year. Ichiro’s high BA was always that much valuable with his big AB totals, which makes his 2011 .272 that much less valuable.

TIER 4

Nick Swisher, Yankees Jason Heyward, Braves Logan Morrison, Marlins Brett Gardner, Yankees Drew Stubbs, Reds Cameron Maybin Melky Cabrera, Giants

Swisher have averaged 27 HR, 85 RBI and a .267 BA in three years with the Yankees.  A year ago, Heyward was the next big thing, but he hit just .098 in May and .192 vs. lefties. Morrison also struggled with hype, hitting .220 in the second half and being briefly demoted. He’s not 100% recovered from December knee surgery. Stubbs looks like a tempting power-steals option, but he had 205 K and an OPS of just .686.

Tier 5 Carlos Beltran, Cardinals Carl Crawford, Red Sox Jayson Werth, Nationals Nick Markakis, Orioles Andre Ethier, Dodgers Torii Hunter, Angels

These players all run the risk of being overdrafted based on name recognition. But if some of them drop far enough, they could turn out to be value picks.

Photo by Bridget Samuels.

The post Fantasy Baseball OF Preview: Kemp Comes Close to Triple Crown appeared first on The Faster Times.

But before you feel obliged to reach for a 3B, bear in mind that all six players in the second tier missed significant time last season. Evan Longoria had the most games played with just 133. David Wright played in just 102 games and Ryan Zimmerman just 101. Brett Lawrie broke his hand in the minors and broke a finger on the other hand in the majors.

The youngest player in Tier Three, Kevin Youkilis, turns 33 March 15. Both Youkilis and Alex Rodriguez also missed significant time last year and are big health risks.

In other words, most of the third basemen come with some risk, and some come with a lot of risk.

TIER ONE Miguel Cabrera, Tigers Jose Bautista, Blue Jays Hanley Ramirez, Marlins

Cabrera is probably the number one overall pick – and he’ll have multiple position eligibility. Bautista showed 2010 was not a fluke with a sensational 31-65-.334 first half. But he tailed off significantly in the second half: 12-38-.257, when he had a series of nagging injuries. Bautista is said to be healthy now. After missing 70 games last year, Ramirez is also healthy and looks ready to return to five-category greatness.

TIER TWO

Evan Longoria, Rays Adrian Beltre, Rangers David Wright, Mets Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals Pablo Sandoval, Giants Brett Lawrie, Blue Jays

Longoria hit 20 HR in the second half. His BA plummeted, but so did his BABIP. Longoria is still only 26. Beltre played only 124 games, but still hit 32 HR. Playing home games in Texas helped Beltre – he could have a huge year if he stays healthy. Wright still gets steals, and his power stats could rebound now that the Mets have moved the fences in. Or he could be traded at the deadline to a contending team with a better lineup. Zimmerman has now played under 110 games two of the last four seasons. But the Nationals believe in him, since they just gave him a six-year contract extension. Zimmerman hit .306 in the second half. Sandoval regained his 2009 form after a down 2010. In the second half, Sandoval had 15 HR and hit .325. Great things are forecast for Lawrie, who hit .293 with 9 HR and 7 SB in just 150 AB in his debut. Just remember that he only has 150 MLB AB.

TIER THREE

Aramis Ramirez, Brewers Michael Young, Rangers Alex Rodriguez, Yankees Kevin Youkilis, Red Sox

After a couple of off years, Ramirez rebounded with 26-93-.306. Young’s .338 BA and 105 RBI were career highs, but Young turns 36 in October. Young is also eligible at 1B. After going 13-52-.295 in the first half, A-Rod hit just .191 in 19 second-half games and had experiment treatments to his knee and shoulder in the offseason. Youkilis hit just .258 last year and has missed 102 games over the last two seasons. Youkilis is eligible at 1B in Yahoo! leagues.

TIER FOUR

Mark Reynolds, Orioles Martin Prado, Braves

Reynolds is for those willing to sacrifice BA for HR. He hit 37 HR with a .221 BA, and that was up from 2010’s .198. Prado is yet another 3B-eligible who missed a lot of time due to injury (a staph infection in his leg). Prado’s BA fell to .260 after two years at .307. His BABIP fell even further.

Photo by Keith Allison.

The post Fantasy Baseball 3B Preview: Bautista Getting Company at the Top appeared first on The Faster Times.

TIER ONE

Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies

Tulowitzki has averaged 30 HR and 97 RBI the last three years, and that’s with missing 70 games in that span. His lowest yearly BA in that span is .297.

TIER TWO

Hanley Ramirez, Marlins Jose Reyes, Marlins

Ramirez gets edge because his upside is five-category superstar. He also adds position flexibility this year with the move to third. Ramirez did miss 70 games and was having an off-year before he went down for the season in August with a shoulder injury, but Reyes is the bigger injury risk. Reyes hit .354 in the first half with 30 SB and 15 triples in 80 games. But amid two more hamstring injuries, Reyes hit .305 in the second half in 46 games with 9 SB and just one triple. But even if Reyes ends up not running as much, he could score a lot of runs hitting in front of a healthy Ramirez and Giancarlo Stanton.

TIER THREE

Starlin Castro, Cubs, Jimmy Rollins, Phillies Elvis Andrus, Rangers Asdrubal Cabrera, Indians

Rising star Castro hit .300 for second straight year. His 207 hits led the NL. With 674 AB, his BA will help your team that much more. Castro had 8 HR in second half for total of 10, so he could be headed toward being a player who will really help in some categories but won’t hurt your in others.

Rollins remains one of the better power-speed combos at SS with 16 HR and 30 SB in 142 games, but don’t expect a high BA. His .268 was his highest since 2008. Rollins’ career BA is .272. At 33, health a concern.

Andrus has 102 steals in three years, but no power and .271 career BA.

Cabrera’s 25 HR does not look sustainable – his previous high was 6. His unpredictable seasons have a 162-game average of 13 HR, 13 SB and .281 BA.

TIER FOUR

Alexei Ramirez, White Sox Jhonny Peralta, Tigers Erick Aybar, Angels Derek Jeter, Yankees J.J. Hardy, Orioles Emilio Bonifacio, Marlins Dee Gordon, Dodgers Yunel Escobar, Blue Jays

Ramirez has had steady but unspectacular numbers in his career, though his 15 HR and .269 BA were down from 2010 and his 7 SB came after three straight years of at least 13 SB.

Peralta‘s 21 HR and 86 RBI are not much more than his career 162-game average of 19-83, but his .299 BA looks like an outlier next to his career .268 BA.

Aybar’s steals trending upward: 14, 22, 30. If at top of order, will benefit with Albert Pujols now in middle.

Jeter hit .327 in the second half after .270 in the first half, but had same 3 HR and 8 SB.  .666 OPS vs. righties after having .633 OPS against them in 2010.

Hardy regained power of 2007-8 Milwaukee days with 30 HR in just 129 games. But that was the most games the injury-prone Hardy has played in since ’08.

Bonifacio came out of nowhere to hit .296 with 40 steals.  But he had a .372 BABIP and, while he appears to have a place to play in center field, he has a small track record. May not run as much batting second after Reyes, but could score more hitting in front of Hanley Ramirez and Stanton.

Gordon was a no-hit SS with great speed before he hit .372 in September with 12 steals. His 24 SB in 56 games project to 69 over 162. But can he hit MLB pitching for more than one month?

Escobar hits for BA and some HR but no speed. His OPS at home was 226 points higher than on the road.

Photo by SD Dirk.

The post Fantasy Baseball SS Preview: Tulowitzki and the Question Marks appeared first on The Faster Times.

2B is not the speed position it has been in the past. Of the 11 top choices, as shown in the first three tiers, only three players (Dustin Pedroia, Ian Kinsler and Ben Zobrist)  had 18 steals, while all but two players (Young and Chase Utley) had 18 HR.

TIER ONE

Robinson Cano, Yankees Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox Ian Kinsler, Rangers

Cano is expected to bat third in the powerhouse Yankee lineup. With career highs in HR, RBI and steals, Pedroia had a year on par with his MVP 2008.  He hit .334 in the second half. Kinsler avoided a DL stint for the first time and had his second 30-30 in three seasons.

TIER TWO

Dan Uggla, Braves Ben Zobrist, Rays Brandon Phillips, Reds Michael Young, Rangers (not eligible in all leagues)

Uggla’s BA at the break was just .185; after the break, it was .296. But he hit 30 HR for the fifth straight year, which is unprecedented for a 2B.  Zobrist missed 20-20 by one SB. Phillips hit .300, but not only are his steals declining, but along with his 30 SB over the last two years, he has been thrown out 21 times. If Young is eligible at 2B in your league, his 11 HR, while the lowest of anyone in the first three 2B tiers, is more acceptable at 2B than at the corner IF spots where he is eligible. Young’s .338 BA and 105 RBI were career highs.

TIER THREE

Howard Kendrick, Angels Michael Cuddyer, Rockies (not eligible in all leagues) Rickie Weeks, Brewers Chase Utley, Phillies

Kendrick hit 10 of his career-high 18 HR in just 197 PA while batting second. He was usually hitting ahead of Bobby Abreu. This year, Kendrick may hit second again, but this time he’ll be batting in front of Albert Pujols.

Cuddyer hit 20 HR playing his home games in Minnesota; now he gets to play in Colorado. But Cuddyer, who turns 33 later in March, has only hit 20 HR three times in his career, so a lot more power is not guaranteed, even in Coors.

The injury-prone Weeks missed a lot of time with a sprained ankle, only playing in 118 games. The 29-year-old Weeks has only played in more than 118 games twice in his career.  This spring, his ankle is still not 100% and he is being bothered by shoulder tightness. Weeks scored 112 runs in 2010 when he was healthy all year, but Prince Fielder is no longer in the Brewers’ lineup.

Utley has missed 106 games over the last two years. He just turned 33 and has chronic knee pain. Last year, Utley hit .259, and just .187 against lefties.

TIER FOUR

Dustin Ackley, Mariners Kelly Johnson, Blue Jays Jemile Weeks, A’s Neil Walker, Pirates

Ackley was the second overall pick in the 2009 draft behind Stephen Strasburg.  But while he has great upside, the 24-year-old has not put up flashy numbers so far in his brief time in the majors.  Ackley may start the year batting second in front of Ichiro and Jesus Montero.

After hitting just .209 in 114 games for Arizona, Johnson hit .270 in 33 game for Toronto.  If Johnson, who hit .221 last year, can get his BA up, he has the best power-speed combo in this group (21 HR and 16 steals in 2011).

Walker isn’t the BA risk that Johnson is and still has upside at 26.

Jemile Weeks had 22 steals in 97 games, though he was also thrown out 11 times. But Rickie’s younger brother has no power.

Photo by Keith Allison.

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And now Miguel Cabrera (pictured) is moving to third base.

Meanwhile, only rookie Eric Hosmer and late bloomer Michael Morse have shown they should be added to the roster of starting first basemen.

So the first two tiers of starting first basemen include only nine players who are likely to be starting at first base on a fantasy team, the other three being Cabrera, Michael Young, who is also eligible at 3B (and 2B in Yahoo!), and Kevin Youkilis, who is primarily eligible at 3B. Youkilis is eligible at 1B in Yahoo!, but may not be in other leagues.

Last year, my 12th =-ranked 1B was Paul Konerko. This year, of players likely to be playing 1B, my 12th-ranked is Ike Davis, who was just diagnosed with Valley fever.

So if you can’t get a 1B in the first tier, do your best to get one in the second tier.

TIER ONE

Miguel Cabrera, Tigers Albert Pujols, Angels Joey Votto, Reds Adrian Gonzalez, Red Sox Prince Fielder, Tigers Mark Teixeira, Yankees

Pujols drops to 2nd because he’s switching teams and leagues, which always adds uncertainty, and his numbers were a little off last year. Gonzalez’s BA could drop since he had a .380 BABIP. Fielder is also switching teams and leagues. Teixeira has batted under .260 the last two seasons, but has also averaged 37 HR and 114 RBI in three seasons as a Yankee.

TIER TWO

Paul Konerko, White Sox Michael Young, Rangers Kevin Youkilis, Red Sox Eric Hosmer, Royals Lance Berkman, Cardinals Michael Morse, Nationals

Konerko has gone 30-100-.300 the last two seasons and has hit at least 28 HR seven of the last eight years. He turned 36 on March 5 but still seems to be going strong. Young’s .338 BA and 105 RBI were career highs, and the multiple position eligibility will add flexibility to your roster. But he won’t give you HR you’d like to see from your 1B. Young turns 36 in October.  Youkilis hit just .258 last year and has missed 102 games over the last two seasons. Hosmer is only 22 and projects to be a star, but he’s only had one season so far, so don’t draft him as if he’s already become a star. Berkman is only a month older than Konerko, but while Berkman had a great 2011, his results and health the last few years have not been quite as consistent. Berkman also loses Pujols from the order. Morse had a great season – 31-95-.303 – but needs to show he can do it again.

TIER THREE

Mark Reynolds, Orioles Michael Cuddyer, Rockies Billy Butler, Royals Freddie Freeman, Braves Gaby Sanchez, Marlins Ike Davis, Mets Ryan Howard, Phillies

Reynolds’.221 BA was still grisly, but at least it improved from 2010’s .198. And he avoided 200 K for the first time in four seasons (he had 196). What makes Reynolds worth considering are those 37 HR in 2011 and his career 162-game average of 36 HR and 97 RBI. Now if he could just get back to his lifetime .238 BA. Reynolds is also eligible at 3B.

Cuddyer hit 20 HR playing his home games in Minnesota; now he gets to play in Colorado. But Cuddyer, who turns 33 later in March, has only hit 20 HR three times in his career, so a lot more power is not guaranteed, even in Coors. Cuddyer is also eligible at 2B in Yahoo!

Butler is a career .297 hitter who had a career-high 95 RBI last year. But his 19 HR are typical for him and low for a 1B.  Butler remains eligible at 1B in Yahoo!, but may be UTIL-only in other leagues.

Freeman had a nice rookie year – 21-76-.282. He has already suffered a partially dislocated kneecap in camp, but the injury is not supposed to be serious.

Sanchez has hit 19 HR in both of his seasons with a BA around .270.  Davis put up similar numbers in 2010 before missing much of last year with an ankle injury. It is unclear how his diagnosis of valley fever will affect him.

Howard was originally supposed to return in May from his Achilles injury, but suffered a setback when he developed an infection in the area. He remains a great candidate to stash on your bench, but he can’t be ranked as a starter just yet.

ROOKIES TO WATCH

Yonder Alonso, Padres Anthony Rizzo, Cubs

Photo by Keith Allison.

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