Second-Guessing a Fantasy Baseball Draft: Part One

Fantasy Baseball: In mid-March, I participated in a snake draft for one of my fantasy leagues. While it’s way too early to judge any draft, some pre-draft planning might be different now, particularly in light of injuries to stars such as Evan Longoria (pictured) and Matt Holliday.

First round (sixth pick in twelve-team league)
The pick: Robinson Cano

I wanted to land a top player at a shallow position if possible, and I preferred Cano over Miguel Cabrera due to Cabrera’s recent off-the-field troubles and Longoria, who would now have to bat in a much weaker lineup.

By the end of spring training, Cabrera appeared ready to put up his usual numbers, and now he’s gotten off to a hot start. As it turned out, Cabrera was already off the board when I drafted, but if the draft were today, I would not want to pass him up if he were somehow still available.

Longoria, however, is no longer a first-round pick with an injury that could keep him out as much as a month. .

Second round (19^th pick)
The pick: Prince Fielder

I planned to grab a corner infielder, which was why I didn’t want to take Cabrera in the first round. But along with Cabrera, Alex Rodriguez’ ranking also rose by the end of the spring. I still think Fielder has a better upside with regard to homers and A-Rod has not reached 140 games in any of the last three seasons, but A-Rod was available at 19 and I could come to regret not taking him.

Third round (30)
The pick: Jose Reyes

I planned to take an outfielder here and hoped that Nelson Cruz, Matt Kemp or Justin Upton would be available.  Kemp and Cruz were gone, but not only Upton was available, but, to my great surprise, so was Matt Holliday. But I was even more surprised to see Reyes on the board, and he was my choice.  I never expected to land two top middle infielders. Reyes has some risk, but I was willing to take it, rather than hope for the best from almost any other shortstop I would end up with.

As it turned out, Holliday, who appeared to be the much safer choice, is now on the shelf with an appendectomy.

Fourth round (43)
The pick: Clayton Kershaw

Time for a starting pitcher, and both Kershaw and Justin Verlander were available. I actual had Verlander ranked slightly higher because of a longer record of consistency – four strong seasons out of the last five, vs.  only two good seasons for Kershaw. But I have a slight bias against Verlander because the year I spent a high pick on him was 2008, his one poor season. Kershaw is a worthy alternative, with ERAs under 3 the last two years, while Verlander, even with all his success, has a career ERA of 3.81. Sometimes it’s worth going for the NL pitcher.

Fifth round (54)
The pick: Tommy Hanson

I planned to take an outfielder, but for the second straight year, couldn’t resist the hype of Hanson. While he disappointed last year, he did have a 2.51 ERA and 0.98 WHIP after the break. And with both Hunter Pence and Alex Rios still available, I hoped at least one would drop to the next round.

Sixth round (67)
The pick: Alex Rios

Pence was taken, but I might have gone for Adrian Beltre had he been available, since the top third basemen were almost gone. But Beltre went with the pick before mine, so I took Rios.

Before this pick, three closers were off the board, After this pick, a major closer run started and all the top closers were gone by the time of my next pick. While I hate to draft a closer early, the way my team ended up, I would probably now rather have Mariano Rivera, Joakim Soria or Neftali Feliz, all of whom were available, than Rios.

Seventh round (78)
The pick: Jay Bruce

If I wanted to join the closer run, I would have to choose from the likes of J.J. Putz and Jonathan Broxton, who would turn out to be the next two picks. I’d rather have an outfielder with the upside of Bruce.

Eighth round (91)
The pick: Carlos Santana

Dan Haren almost fell to me, but went two picks earlier. I found myself with a choice between two of the biggest potential upside picks in the draft – Santana and Mike Stanton. I already had two outfielders and there were only two of the better catchers left (the other was Geovany Soto). Stanton also was battling a bad hamstring.

But even though Stanton is already hurt and Santana is hitting .462 after the opening weekend, I still wonder if I will regret not taking Stanton.

Ninth round (102)
The pick: Aramis Ramirez

If I didn’t grab Ramirez, I would have to settle for the likes of Pedro Alvarez, Casey McGehee or Pablo Sandoval. But I almost immediately regretted not going for upside and taking Max Scherzer, then Alvarez in the next round, when he turned out to be still available.

Tenth round (115)
The pick: Ryan Franklin

Closers were disappearing so quickly that I had to take the best one available. I wanted Huston Street, but he went with the previous pick.

Drew Stubbs was still available, and in hindsight, I wish I had picked Soria instead of Rios in round six and then grabbed Stubbs here.

With ten of 22 rounds completed, I had filled my infield and catcher slots, had two outfielders, two starting pitchers and one closer.  In the coming rounds, I would need to focus more on my pitching staff.

Second-Guessing a Fantasy Draft: Part Two

Photo by Keith Allison.