Carlos Gonzalez, Buster Posey and Other Fantasy Baseball MVPs

Fantasy Baseball: It’s no surprise that Carlos Gonzalez was the MVP of Yahoo! fantasy leagues by a wide margin. Gonzalez appeared on a staggering 53.4% of Yahoo!’s top 500 Public League teams in rotisserie leagues.  Buster Posey (pictured) finished well behind in second, appearing on 34.2% of the top 500 teams.  Gonzalez, a triple crown candidate much of the season, finished as the top-rated player in Yahoo! fantasy baseball, going .336-34-117 with 26 steals.  What made him the most valuable, though, was that owners were able to acquire him with an average draft position of 143.6.

The typical fantasy MVP is someone who greatly outperformed his ADP. Only two players on this list were drafted higher than Gonzalez. Four players were likely never drafted at all.

Here are the top eleven players on the Yahoo! list (there is a three-way tie for ninth). You can see the entire list here.

Carlos Gonzalez, Rockies OF – 53.4%
Buster Posey, Giants – C 34.2%
Billy Wagner, Braves – RP 29.6%
Adam Wainwright, Cards SP– 28.4%
John Axford, Brewers RP– 26.2%
Mike Aviles, Royals 2B-SS – 23.6%
Ryan Raburn, Tigers 1B-2B-OF – 23.4%
Mat Latos, Padres SP – 22.6%
Carl Crawford, Rays OF – 22.4%
Hong-Chih Kuo – Dodgers RP – 22.4%
Juan Pierre, White Sox OF – 22.4%

Axford, Aviles, Raburn and Kuo went undrafted in just about every league. Buster Posey was drafted 238.1 on average by owners willing to stash him away, since he began the season in the minors with uncertain prospects for a quick callup with the Giants having just re-signed Bengie Molina.

By the time Posey was called up on May 29, the season was almost one-third over. But Posey still managed to end up with the fourth-best season among all catchers, going .305-18-67. Not bad for someone acquired on waivers in many leagues.

John Axford also began the season in the minors. He was not called up until May 15 and got his first save on May 23. But Axford would go on to reward owners who nabbed him with 24 saves.

Hong-Chih Kuo might be an even more unlikely fantasy MVP than Axford. At the start of the season, Jonathan Broxton was the top-rated closer on many lists. Nobody would have predicted that Broxton would lose his job during the season.

Kuo ended up with only 12 saves, but he helped owners in other ways, with a sensational 1.20 ERA and 0.78 WHIP in 60 IP. Kuo fanned 73 for a K/9 of 10.95.

Axford also had some great peripheral numbers, fanning 76 in 58 IP for a K/9 of 11.79. He also had eight relief wins.

The other reliever on this list, Billy Wagner, underscores the value of reliever peripherals. Wagner, drafted 160.1 on average, finished 21^st overall in Yahoo! thanks to 37 saves, 7 wins, 1.43 ERA, 0.87 WHIP and 104 K in 69.1 IP (13.50 K/9).

Ryan Raburn hit .315 with 13 HR and 46 RBI in the second half. His OPS was .900. The 2B-eligible Raburn did as well as MVP candidate Robinson Cano, whose second-half numbers were .299 BA, 13 HR, 51 RBI and .878 OPS.

Mike Aviles hit .357 with 6 homers, 14 RBI, 20 runs and 6 steals in September. During the rest of the season, Aviles had only two homers, 8 steals and 18 RBI. As someone who was both 2B and SS eligible, Aviles provided a major upgrade to a weak position down the stretch for many top fantasy teams.

Mat Latos (ADP 246.8, final Yahoo! rank 31) and Juan Pierre (ADP 221.5, final rank 54) fit the model of significantly outperforming their ADP.

The only players on this list with a high ADP were Carl Crawford (ADP 21, final rank 7) and Adam Wainwright (ADP 58.1, final rank 6). But Crawford was the only member of the top 10 steals list to offer five-category production (.307-19-90 with 47 steals and 110 runs) while Wainwright’s numbers (20 W, 213 K, 2.42 ERA, 1.05 WHIP) were almost identical to overall top SP Roy Halladay, who had an ADP of  15.7.

Crawford and Wainwright, though, remain the exceptions on this list.  Most fantasy teams manage to draft high-rated players in the first few rounds. What sets the champions apart is their ability to uncover great values in the middle and lower rounds, and on the waiver wire.

Photo by {photonista} *messin’ with Texas*