Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitchers Part 3 – Bargains or Busts?

Fantasy Baseball: 36 starters have been covered so far. By now, the only sure thing is that there are no sure things. Here are twelve more pitchers, for a total of 48, or four per team in a 12-team league. At that point, unless you are in a very deep league, you will probably be using the waiver wire to fill out your rotation.

Closers
Starting Pitchers Part 1
Starting Pitchers Part 2
Catchers
Outfielders Part 1
Outfielders Part 2
Third Basemen
Shortstops
Second Basemen
First Basemen

RISK/REWARD

3.23 ERA and 1.20 WHIP would be a very good year for most pitchers. Those are Roy Oswalt‘s career marks for his nine-year career. But in 2009, Oswalt’s ERA was 4.12, his highest mark by almost half a run, and he was shut down at the end of the year due to a degenerative disk in his back. So Oswalt, who turns 33 in August, is an injury risk, but he has had a good spring so far and appears to be healthy, raising hope that he can regain his form this year.

Edwin Jackson‘s ERA the last three years: 5.76, 4.42, 3.62. His WHIP has also dropped dramatically: 1.76, 1.51, 1.26. In 2009, Jackson had a great first half – 2.56 ERA, 1.04 WHIP – but fell to a 5.07 ERA and 1.53 WHIP after the break. Can the onetime Dodger phenom, still only 26, continue his overall upward trend now that he is in Arizona, a hitters’ park but the weaker league?  Worth a shot at this point, though he has followed up his bad second half with a poor spring so far.

A.J. Burnett is a great source for strikeouts – he fanned 195 in 207 IP after striking out more than a batter per inning the previous two seasons – as well as a good bet for wins since he pitches for the Yankees. Burnett has a reputation as being injury-prone, but he has reached 20 starts in six straight seasons and 30 in three of those, including the last two. So drafting Burnett means that you can expect at least 2/3 of a season, if not a whole one.

David Price entered the 2009 season as such a highly-touted prospect that he was stashed on many rosters even after starting the season in the minors. But the former overall number one draft pick failed to build on his successful 2008 postseason, finishing with a 4.42 ERA,1.35 and 7.15 K/9. Price did end up with a 1.20 WHIP in the second half, but so far this spring has not shown much indication that he is ready to live up to the hype. But you can probably get him a lot later than last year, and at 24, Price still has all that potential for greatness.

CHICAGO HOPE

John Danks took a step back from his promising 2008, when he had a 3.32 ERA and 1.23 WHIP, finishing 2009 with an ERA of 3.77 and WHIP of 1.28. But Danks was good for stretches; in four different months, his ERA was 3.24 or lower. The former first-round pick turns 25 in April, so there is still hope that he improves this season.

Longtime reliever Ryan Dempster became a fulltime starter in 2008 with great results – 17 wins, 2.96 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 187 K, earning him a four-year, $52M deal. Dempster regressed a bit last year, ending with a 3.65 ERA and 1.31 WHIP, but he did finish strong, with a 3.15 ERA and 1.23 WHIP after the break. Dempster turns 33 in May, but looks to be healthy.

It has been some time since Carlos Zambrano put up ace numbers. Zambrano’s ERA the last three seasons: 3.95, 3.91, and 3.77 in 2009. His WHIP: 1.33, 1.29, 1.38. After winning 18 in 2007, Zambrano only had nine wins in 28 starts. But Zambrano is only 28 and says he will stop the emotional outbursts that have marred his career, so he could start to regain his form this season.

Ted Lilly had arthroscopic shoulder surgery in November and was expected to miss the first month of the season after setbacks including a sore knee and a virus. But Lilly said his shoulder felt great after pitching three innings in a simulated game on March 22 and he now may be back in mid-to late April. Last season, Lilly posted career bests of 3.10 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in 27 starts. The previous three seasons, Lilly won at least 15 games. Lilly is 34, but could be worth the gamble.

COMEBACK TRAIL

Tim Hudson came back from Tommy John surgery and showed enough that the Braves gave him a three-year deal for $28M while trading away Javier Vazquez, who was owed $11M for 2010. Hudson will not get you strikeouts, but he has a career 3.49 ERA and 1.26 WHIP and had a 3.33 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in 2007, his last full season. Hudson has looked good so far this spring. He turns 35 in July.

ROCKY MOUNTAIN STRIKEOUTS

Jorge De La Rosa fanned 193 in 185 innings while winning 16. His overall ERA (4.38) and WHIP (1.38) were mediocre, but he had a breakout second half, going 10-2 with a 3.46 ERA. So far this spring, De La Rosa, who turns 29 in April, looks like he can build on last season’s success.

LATE GAMBLES

Brian Matusz was the first pitcher taken in the 2008 draft and was in the majors just a year later, holding the Yankees to only one run, four hits and two walks in a mid-September game at Yankee Stadium. The 23-year-old Matusz has looked great this spring and could be headed for a breakout rookie campaign for the Orioles.

Ervin Santana had a great year in 2008 – 3.49 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 214 K and 16 W before missing the first five weeks of 2009 with elbow problems and struggling the rest of the year. Santana, 27, looked good earlier this spring, but was just scratched from his March 23 start with elbow inflammation.

OTHER YOUNG PITCHERS WITH UPSIDE

Johnny Cueto, Rick Porcello, Jonathan Sanchez, Mat Latos, Wade Davis, Homer Bailey, Phil Hughes.

Photo by bk1bennett.