Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitchers Part 1 – Tim Lincecum Goes for Third Cy Young

Fantasy Baseball: Pitchers are generally riskier than hitters, but in 2009, players such as Jose Reyes, David Wright and Josh Hamilton showed that hitters could be risky as well. Meanwhile, top-rated pitchers such Tim Lincecum and CC Sabathia lived up to expectations. Johan Santana did not live up to his draft position, but still ended up with good stats.

So if you plan to have at least two of the following 24 pitchers on your team, it may be worth your while to look for an ace at the top as well as a pitcher lower in the rankings with lots of upside.

Closers
Starting Pitchers Part 2
Starting Pitchers Part 3
Catchers
Outfielders Part 1
Outfielders Part 2
Third Basemen
Shortstops
Second Basemen
First Basemen

TIER 1

Tim Lincecum followed up his 2008 Cy Young season – 2.62 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 265 K in 227 IP with an even better one – 2.48 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 261 K in 225 IP. His wins dropped from 18 to 15, but that did not stop the Cy Young voters and will not stop Lincecum, still only 25, from being the first pitcher off the board.

In 287 lifetime starts, Roy Halladay has an ERA of 3.43 and a WHIP of 1.20, and that is with pitching his entire career in the AL East. Halladay, 33 in May seems to be getting better with age, with a 2.78 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in 2008 followed by 2.79 and 1.13 last year. After some low-strikeout years, Halladay went over 200 Ks each of the last two seasons. Halladay also had nine complete games in both 2008 and 2009, helping him to rack up 37 wins during that time. Halladay’s move to the NL may be somewhat offset by pitching home games in Philly’s ballpark, but with all those complete games, at least Brad Lidge will have fewer chances to cost him wins.

Felix Hernandez’s ERA in his four full seasons: 4.52, 3.92, 3.45, 2.49. Hernandez’s WHIP plummeted much more rapidly – 1.34, 1.38, 1.39, 1.14. Hernandez struck out more than 200 for the first time, but his IP also rose from 200.2 in 2008 to 238.2 in 2009, landing him on the Verducci Effect list. Hernandez led the majors with 29 quality starts. With Seattle rapidly improving, he has a chance at approaching 2009’s 19 wins. Hernandez turns 24 in April, so he is just starting to reach his star potential. Seattle just signed him to a five-year, $78M contract.

After being drafted sixth overall in 2002, Zack Greinke battled depression and social anxiety disorder before following up a positive 2008 with the best pitching performance of 2009 – 2.16 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 242 K. Pitching for the punchless Royals held Greinke to 16 wins. Greinke was sensational throughout the season – with an 0.50 ERA in April and an 0.55 ERA in September. Greinke’s 229.1 IP in 2009 was not drastically higher than 2008’s 202.1. At 26, Greinke is set to cement his place as one of baseball’s top pitchers.

TIER 2

CC Sabathia got better as the year went on. He had a 2.74 ERA after the break with 102 K in 101.1 IP. Sabathia’s postseason ERA was 1.98 with 32 K in 36.1 IP. That postseason workload followed 230 IP, the third straight season Sabathia has reached that number. So far, the workload has not seemed to bother Sabathia, who turns 30 in July. Sabathia won 19 games for the second time in three years, and, unlike Greinke and Lincecum, has no worries about getting run support.

Dan Haren had a very good year – 3.13 ERA and 1.00 WHIP, but it was comprised of two very different halves. Before the break, Haren had an ERA of 2.01 and a WHIP of just 0.81. But Haren’s usual second-half slump resulted in a 4.62 ERA, though his WHIP was still respectable at 1.26 and he continued to strike out almost a batter per inning, finishing with 223 K in 229.1 IP. Haren has five straight seasons of at least 14 wins and a WHIP of 1.22 or lower. Over the last three years, Haren’s highest ERA was 3.33 and his lowest K total was 192. So despite his drastically different halves, Haren has actually been quite consistent.

In four full seasons, Justin Verlander has won at least 17 games three times with ERA between last year’s 3.45 and 2007’s 3.66. In 2009, Verlander had a career-best 1.18 WHIP, but the number that really stood out was his major-league best 269 K, which shattered his previous high of 183. Verlander had 240 IP after throwing 201.1 and 201 IP the last two seasons. The Tigers are apparently unworried that Verlander’s workload could result in another off-year like his 2008 – they just signed Verlander to a 5-year, $80M contract.

In his first seven starts, Johan Santana has an ERA of 0.78. He struck out ten or more batters three times. Then Santana’s year fell apart along with the Mets’ season, and he ended up undergoing surgery to remove bone chips from his elbow. While the Mets’ 2009 injury woes are continuing with fellow stars Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran, Santana appears to be fully recovered from his surgery and ready to resume his dominance. Santana had similar surgery before the 2004 season, when he won his first Cy Young.

Adam Wainwright’s ERA the last three seasons: 3.70, 3.20, 2.63. Wainwright’s 1.21 WHIP was actually higher than 2008’s 1.18, but his 212 K were more than 50% higher than his previous best of 136. Add in 19 wins, and Wainwright came close to winning the NL Cy Young. At 28, Wainwright has a good chance of contending for the award again.

TIER 3

Jon Lester’s 15 W, 3.41 ERA and 1.23 WHIP were similar to his 2008 numbers: 16, 3.21, 1.27. but his Ks jumped from 152 to 225 in seven fewer innings. For the second straight season, Lester’s ERA and WHIP went down in the second half. Despite a big rise in IP from 2008 to 2009, Lester managed to defy the Verducci Effect. The rise in Ks gives the 26-year-old Lester a shot to become a fantasy ace this season.

Cole Hamels became an ace in 2008 at 24, going 14-10 with a 3.09 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 196 K and winning both the NLCS and World Series MVPs. But in 2009, Hamels tailed off to 10-11, 4.32 ERA, 1.29 WHIP. Perhaps it was all the innings he threw in 2008 – 227.1 in the regular season and another 35 in the postseason. The Verducci Effect predicted trouble for Hamels, who had some elbow discomfort in spring training 2009 and missed Opening Day. Or maybe it was that his BABIP jumped 58 points. Hamels’ HR and BB allowed were basically the same as before. While Hamels again got to the World Series, his overall 2009 IP – 193.2 plus 19.1 in the postseason, was much lower in 2009. Still only 26, Hamels could regain his ace status this season as Justin Verlander did last year.

Josh Beckett has been a good, not great fantasy pitcher since coming to Boston. In four seasons, 2009’s 3.86 ERA was his second-lowest and his 1.19 WHIP tied for second-lowest. Beckett’s 199 K was his highest Boston total. He has at least 16 wins three out of the four years, including 17 last season. Beckett might well have been a fantasy ace last season if he were not in the AL East. He had a 5.34 ERA in five games against the Yankees, 5.02 ERA in five games against the Rays and 10.45 ERA in two games against Toronto. Beckett turns 30 in May and is in a contract year.

Matt Cain had a breakout year with career bests in wins (14), ERA (2.89) and WHIP (1.18). His Ks dipped slightly but so did his walks. Cain’s HR total has risen the last three years from 14 to 19 to 22. At 25, Cain can continue to improve, but he does not figure to get a lot of wins with the Giants’ run support.

Javier Vazquez went from a 4.67 ERA and 1.32 WHIP with the White Sox in the AL in 2008 to a career-best 2.87 ERA and 1.03 WHIP with the Braves in the NL. Now he returns to the AL and returning to the Yankees, with whom he had his worst ERA in the last decade – 4.91 in 2004. Vazquez actually got off to a good start in 2004 and made the All-Star team with 10 wins, 3.56 ERA and 1.15 WHIP at the break. But his second-half numbers were grisly – 6.92 ERA and 1.49 WHIP. Still, Vazquez has plenty to offer, even if he is unlikely to duplicate his 2009. Vazquez never gets hurt – at least 198 IP each of the last ten years. Vazquez has a career WHIP of 1.25. and a career K/9 of 8.1. Pitching for the Yankees, Vazquez stands to get a lot of wins.

Cliff Lee followed his 2008 Cy Young season (2.54 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 22 wins) with a good, not great, season split between Cleveland and Philadelphia, finishing with a 3.22 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. Lee threw a career-high 231.2 IP, followed by 40.1 IP in his sensational postseason (4-0, 1.56 ERA, 0.82 WHIP). Lee had surgery to remove a bone spur from his foot but is said to be fully recovered. On March 17, Lee was suspended for the first five games of the regular season after throwing over a hitter’s head in an exhibition game. He is expected to appeal. Lee loses Philly’s run support, but he is moving to a pitcher’s park and will be in a contract year.

After winning 12 games with a 3.10 ERA as a rookie in 2006, Josh Johnson underwent Tommy John surgery and did not pitch a full season again until 2009, when he won 15 games with a 3.23 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 191 K in 209 IP. Johnson’s IP were 52 above his career high, earning him a spot on the Verducci Effect list. But the low-payroll Marlins believe in Johnson enough to sign him to a four-year, $39M deal.

TIER 4

Yovani Gallardo had 204 K in 185 IP, but also 94 walks. In fact, except for the Ks, allardo’s numbers – 3.73 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 13 wins – were not special. But Gallardo, who just turned 24, is projected to become an ace at some point.

Tommy Hanson came up in June and quickly became one of the best pitchers in the NL. In 21 starts, Hanson went 11-4 with a 2.89 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 116 K in 127.2 IP. Unlike fellow rookie star J.A. Happ, Hanson, 23, is projected to become an ace, perhaps as soon as this year.

Clayton Kershaw had one of the top ERAs in the NL at 2.79. His first half was good, but his second half was great - 2.27 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 86 K in only 77.1 IP. Talk about a lack of run support – Kershaw only went 1-3 in 13 second-half starts. Kershaw is a star in the making, and he only turned 22 on March 19.

Ubaldo Jimenez won 15 games with a 3.47 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 198 K. Jimenez was stronger in the second half with a 3.08 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. At 26, Jimenez has become that rare Colorado pitcher worth drafting high. This ground-ball pitcher actually likes pitching in Colorado – Jimenez’ career ERA at home is .80 lower than his road mark.

After winning 16 games with a 3.14 ERA and 201 K in 2008, Chad Billingsley was on a similar pace when he collapsed in the second half with a 5.20 ERA and 1.48 WHIP. Billingsley went from making the All-Star team to being left out of the postseason rotation. Billingsley did miss a start with a hamstring strain, but it is not clear how much the injury affected him.This spring, Billingsley says he has corrected a flaw in his delivery, which can put the 25-year-old back on the road to stardom.

TIER 5

Wandy Rodriguez’s ERA has dropped significantly the last four seasons: 5.64, 4.58, 3.54, 3.02. Along with ERA, Rodriguez shattered other career highs, finishing with14 wins, 1.24 WHIP and 193 K. Rodriguez continues to have a significant home/road split – 2.08 ERA and 1.06 WHIP at home vs. 4.05 ERA and 1.44 WHIP on the road. Rodriguez is 31, so it is not clear how much more he can improve.

Ricky Nolasco ended up with decent numbers, with one big exception. Nolasco had 13 wins, 1.25 WHIP and 195 K in 185 IP. But Nolasco also had a 5.06 ERA. Nolasco had such a miserable first part of the season that he got sent to the minors in late May with an ERA of 9.07. But Nolasco quickly returned and had an ERA of 3.82 the rest of the way. A return to 2008’s, 15 wins, 3.52 ERA and 1.10 WHIP seems attainable.

Matt Garza failed to build on his promising 2008, with one exception. Garza’s ERA and WHIP rose from 3.70 and 1.24 to 3.95 and 1.26. But Garza’s Ks soared to 189 in 203 IP. Garza has pitched much better at home in his two years in Tampa. Oddly enough, Garza’s lowest road ERA was 0.75 in two starts at Yankee Stadium and his third-best was 2.95 at Fenway. Lefties only batted .196 against the righthanded Garza, while righties hit .271. If Garza, 26, can do a little better against righties and on the road, he can become one of the AL’s best pitchers.

Photo by artolog.