Fantasy Baseball Outfield Rankings Part 2 – Manny Being Risky

As you get deeper into the outfielder pool, you start to balance upside and risk. But the pool is deep enough that you can take chances on a couple of players in this second list of 24 outfielders.

In a 12-team league, once you have four outfielders, there will be plenty of options left for a fifth outfielder. Once the season starts, you can upgrade this spot on the waiver wire. During last season, outfield rookies such as Andrew McCutchen and Carlos Gonzalez came into the league, while unsung veterans such as Nyjer Morgan and Rajai Davis became valuable.

Closers
Starting Pitchers Part 1
Starting Pitchers Part 2
Starting Pitchers Part 3
Catchers
Outfielders Part 1
Third Basemen
Shortstops
Second Basemen
First Basemen

BIG NAMES, BUT NOT WHAT THEY ONCE WERE

Manny Ramirez went 19-63-.290 in 352 AB, almost the same numbers he had in the first part of the 2008 season – 20-68-.299 in 365 AB – when he forced his way out of Boston. But Ramirez’ 2009 was the end result of two drastically different halves – 1.156 OPS before the All-Star break, when he played only 36 games due to his 50-game suspension after testing positive for a banned substance, and .838 OPS after the break. Ramirez turns 38 in May, so the decline may have started.

Raul Ibanez, born four days after Ramirez in the spring of 1972, also got off to a blistering start in 2009, going 22-60-.309 before the break. But Ibanez injured his groin in June, missing three weeks, and was not the same when he returned. Ibanez’ overall numbers were still good – 34-93-.272 – but his second-half OPS was .774, down from 1.015 in the first half. Ibanez had sports hernia surgery after the season, so perhaps the injury had something to do with his second-half slump. Ibanez could continue his track record of 20+ HR, but 34 again is optimistic at his age, particular since the surge did not come from his new home park – only 13 of Ibanez’ 34 homers were hit in Citizens Bank Park.

If Carlos Beltran is healthy, he is one of the best outfielders in baseball. But that is a huge if, considering that Beltran will miss at least the first month of the season after undergoing knee surgery. Beltran turns 33 in April – when and how he comes back in anyone’s guess. At some point in your draft, he will be worth the gamble, but that is what he is right now – a gamble.

In 2009, Alfonso Soriano‘s third straight injury-shortened season, his OPS fell to .726. If he were still eligible at second, that would have placed him 18^th at the position – just behind Luis Castillo. In 477 AB, Soriano went 20-55-.241 with nine steals. At 34, Soriano’s 40-40 days are long gone. Soriano’s only number not in decline is his strikeouts – his K/BB ratio was 118/40.

Johnny Damon hit 17 of his 24 homers at Yankee Stadium, but his other fantasy stats – R, RBI, BA, and steals – were pretty much the same at home and on the road. So Damon’s good year was not entirely a product of the new ballpark. But Damon does not figure to reach his 2009 totals of 107 runs and 82 RBI away from the Yankee lineup. And after three straight years of at least 25 steals, Damon only managed 12. The 36-year-old Damon already has an injury this spring – turf toe.

SOMEWHAT BIG NAMES WHO MIGHT NOT LIVE UP TO THEIR REPUTATION

Did the Pirates sell high on Nate McLouth?  In his breakout 2008, McLouth’s OPS was .853. It was .819 in Pittsburgh at the time of the midseason trade to Atlanta, where his OPS fell to .773. McLouth did come within one steal of his second straight 20-20 season and he should be in his prime at 28, but you’ll have to make up BA elsewhere – 2009′s .256 was not far off his lifetime BA of .260.

Carlos Quentin had a breakout year in 2008, going 36-100-.287 before missing the final month with a broken wrist. But Quentin struggled with plantar fasciitis in 2009 and fell to 21-56-.236. He also did not have the pins removed from his wrist until after the 2009 season. Quentin is 27 and says he is now completely healthy, so he could regain his 2008 form – or maybe that was his career year.

UP AND COMING

Andrew McCutchen had 12 HR, 22 steals and 74 runs in 104 games, while batting .286 after his midseason callup. At 23, McCutchen is a rising star with potentially big upside.  He may not reach his potential for a few years, but he can help your SB while contributing in other categories as well.

In 194 AB after the break, Carlos Gonzalez hit .320 with 12 homers, 11 steals and 42 runs. In the postseason, Gonzalez went 10 for 17 with a homer and two steals. At 24, Gonzalez, part of the package the Rockies received for Matt Holliday, could be on the verge of a big year. And playing his home games in Colorado does not hurt, either.

Jay Bruce has shown a lot of power in his brief career – 43 homers in 758 AB – but also has a lifetime BA of .240. Bruce’s lifetime BA against lefties is only .198. But if you are able to play him only against righties, he has 38 of his homers off them in 521 AB. Bruce will be 23 at the start of the season, so he has plenty of time to continue to justify the promise of being selected 12^th in the 2005 draft, whose top ten featured Justin Upton, Ryan Zimmerman, Ryan Braun and Troy Tulowitzki.

Denard Span went 8-68-.311 with 97 runs and 23 steals in his first full season. He hit .331 after the break. Span did get thrown out 10 times, so he does not appear to be developing into a great base stealer. But as the Twins’ leadoff hitter, he should again the in the position to score a lot of runs and help your fantasy team.

POWER, NO SPEED

Jason Kubel (28 in May) broke out, going 28-103-.300 with a .907 OPS. Kubel turns 28 in May, so he figures to keep producing in the Twins’ increasingly strong lineup. Kubel is more valuable in daily leagues, since you want to bench him against lefties, against whom he had a .643 OPS in 2009, as opposed to 1.014 against righties.

Brad Hawpe, 31, has four straight years of at least 20 homers, 80 RBI and a .280 BA. Hawpe made the All-Star team with a 14-59-.320 first half, but slumped to 9-27-.240 after the break. Hawpe had a .955 OPS vs. righties but only .775 vs. lefties and found himself on the bench against lefties in the later part of the year.

Michael Cuddyer went 32-94-.276, only the second time the former first round pick, who will be 31 at the start of the season, had more than 20 homers and 90 RBI.  Cuddyer’s OPS was much higher against lefties (1.013-.803). Cuddyer is also eligible at first base.

Ryan Ludwick went 37-113-.299 in 2008 but tailed off to 22-97-.265 last season. But 2009′s BA and .447 SLG were similar to Ludwick’s 267 and .479 in 2007, so it’s the 2008 season that looks like the outlier, particularly since Ludwick turns 32 in July. But  Ludwick’s RBIs have a shot at going back over 100 with a full season of batting behind Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday.

SPEED, NO POWER

Michael Bourn broke out with a .285 BA, 97 runs and 61 steals. Bourn kept up the steals pace the entire year, swiping 29 after the break. In 2008, Bourn had 41 steals, but only hit .229. Bourn just turned 27, so the steals should keep coming.

After Pittsburgh traded him to Washington, Nyjer Morgan hit .351 with 24 steals and 35 runs in 49 games before breaking his hand in August and missing the rest of the season. Morgan is a career .303 hitter (bear in mind he only has 736 AB) who rarely walks, so he could help your BA that much more. Morgan could give you plenty of steals and runs at the top of the Nationals’ improving lineup.

Oakland’s midseason trades of Matt Holliday and Orlando Cabrera opened up a spot in the outfield and in the second spot of the batting order, and Rajai Davis took full advantage, hitting .325 with 46 runs, 42 RBI and 30 steals in 277 AB.  As impressive as those numbers are, the steals and runs are actually in line with Davis’ career rates – 93 steals and 128 runs in 808 career AB, along with a .280 BA. Davis is now 29, has no power, and the arrival of Coco Crisp and Gabe Gross could cut into his playing time somewhat.

Juan Pierre‘s streak of eight straight years of at least 40 steals came to an end, but with 30 steals in 380 AB, the main thing holding him back was opportunity, which did not arise much for Pierre except during Manny Ramirez’s suspension. Pierre had 20 of his steals in May and June. Pierre hit .308 and has batted under .280 only once in his career. Pierre is now 32 but does not appear to be slowing down. As the White Sox’ fulltime leadoff hitter, Pierre should have plenty of chances to keep running.

In 2007, Alex Rios went 24-85-.297 with 114 runs and 17 steals. Less than two years later, the Blue Jays gave him away to get out from under his enormous contract and he finished the year hitting only .199 in 41 games for the White Sox, with an OPS of just .530. Rios is only 28 and did end up with 17 homers and 24 steals last year, so if he can just get his BA up from 2009′s final mark of .247, he can regain his luster. The White Sox also plan to run more this year, which could help Rios’ steals, though he is projected to bat sixth.

After two straight 20-20 seasons, Corey Hart managed only 12 homers and 11 steals, though he only had 419 AB due to broken fingers and an appendectomy. Hart hit just .260, but that was not too far off his .268 in 2008. In fact, Hart’s OPS of .753 was almost the same as 2008′s .759.  Hart will be 28 at the start of the season and is projected to hit fifth, behind Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder.

Pittsburgh’s midseason trade of Nyjer Morgan to the Nationals worked out great for Morgan, but it also helped the Pirates by giving Garrett Jones a change to play. Jones hit .293 with 21 homers in 358 AB. His OPS of .938 would have been sixth-best in MLB, just ahead of Alex Rodriguez, if he had enough AB to qualify. Jones also had 10 steals and offers both OF and 1B eligibility. Jones turns 29 in June and is unlikely to duplicate 2009, but he can still help your team, particularly if you are able to bench him against lefties. Jones’ OPS against lefties was .698, as opposed to 1.046 against righties.

Nolan Reimold came up in May as a 25-year-old rookie and hit 15 homers with 8 steals in 358 AB, along with a .279 BA before going down with a partial tear of his Achilles tendon that required surgery. The Orioles were taking it slow with Reimold early in spring training, but he is expected to be fine for the regular season, at which point he can continue to develop his power potential. But he may be hitting as low as eighth against righties.

Chris Coghlan hit an astonishing .372 after the break to finish at .321 and win the NL Rookie of the Year Award.  With nine homers and eight steals, Coghlan’s main value so far comes from his BA. While Coghlan was a supplemental first-round pick in 2006, his rapid rise came as a surprise, so expect some regression this year.

OTHERS TO CONSIDER

After a couple of mediocre years in Cleveland, Franklin Gutierrez came to Seattle and began to develop into a five-category player, going 18-70-.283 with 16 steals and 85 runs. At 27, Gutierrez could build on his 2009, but he also needs to show that he can do it again.

Nick Swisher‘s 29-82-.249 was actually typical of his production – his career 162-game average is 28-86-.245. Coming to Yankee Stadium did not help Swisher, who hit only eight of his homers at home while batting just .226. Swisher is also eligible at 1B.

Photo by Malingering.