Fantasy Baseball Outfield Rankings Part 1 – The Braun Supremacy

Fantasy Baseball: Outfield offers the best place to land a five-category star like Ryan Braun (pictured), a power-speed threat like Matt Kemp or a speed demon like Carl Crawford. And outfield goes much deeper than the biggest stars. 37 outfielders had 20 homers, while 25 had 20 steals. But only seven had both 20 homers and 20 steals. So do not wait too long to start filling your outfield.

With three slots, you can focus on landing two strong outfielders while waiting on the third. You can always grab a lesser outfielder later in the draft or gamble on a sleeper. In a twelve-team league, outfielders will be available on the waiver wire. So try to come out of the draft with two of the following top 24:

Closers
Starting Pitchers Part 1
Starting Pitchers Part 2
Starting Pitchers Part 3
Catchers
Outfielders Part 2
Third Basemen
Shortstops
Second Basemen
First Basemen

TIER 1

Ryan Braun was the only player in the majors with 30 homers, 20 steals and a .300 BA. In fact, he hit .320 – the second time in his three seasons he has reached that mark. All three years, Braun has at least 30 homers and double-digit steals. His 113 runs ranked fourth in MLB. Braun is still only 26, so he figures to improve on his already great stats.

Matt Kemp stole at least 34 bases and batted over .290 for the second straight year, but also increased his homers from 18 to 26, despite batting sixth or lower in 94 starts. At 25 and finally in more favorable spots in the order, expect more five-tool greatness from Kemp.

Aside from his injury-plagued 2008, Carl Crawford has 50 steals in five of his six full seasons, and 46 in the other year. He has hit .300 in four years and .296 in another year.

Crawford’s 15 homers were consistent with his usual output, but you’ll take 15 longballs if Crawford gets 60 steals again. But bear in mind that 44 of those steals came in the first half, and Crawford was only 16-for-25 in steals after the break. Still, at 28, Crawford would still seem to have plenty of basestealing left, and plenty of motivation to produce  in the final year of his contract.

TIER 2

At 21, Justin Upton hit .300 with 26 homers and 20 steals despite missing time with a strained oblique. He has been projected to be a superstar since going first overall in the 2005 draft, ahead of top-ten picks such as Ryan Zimmerman, Ryan Braun and Troy Tulowitzki and should reach the top tier of outfielders before too long. Arizona just signed Upton to a six-year, $51.25M contract.

In Matt Holliday‘s sensational 2007, when he finished 2^nd in the NL MVP voting, he had an OPS of 1.012. After coming to St. Louis in July of 2009, Holliday had an OPS of 1.023, hitting 13 homers in 235 AB with a BA of .353. Batting behind Albert Pujols, Holliday should continue to put up great numbers. But his steals could go down – while he still finished with his fifth straight season with double-digit steals, Holliday only had two thefts in 270 PA with the Cardinals while getting thrown out four times.

TIER 3

Jacoby Ellsbury tied a Red Sox record with 70 steals after getting 50 the year before. But Ellsbury’s power numbers are more suited to a middle infielder and, while he hits for average, his 94 runs ranked only fourth on his own team.  Ellsbury is 26 and he had 12 steals in September, so he figures to keep piling up the steals, but not necessarily other numbers. For those playing in leagues with specific OF slots, Ellsbury is moving from CF to LF.

Grady Sizemore is only a year removed from a 30-30 season that made him a first-round pick. But in 2009, he appeared in only 106 games and hit .248. Now said to be healthy, Sizemore has been moved to the number 2 spot in the order, which he thinks could give him more of an opportunity to drive in runs. But does the move mean he will run less? New leadoff batter Asdrubal Cabrera stole 17 bases in 21 tries, while Sizemore only managed 13 steals in 21 attempts.

Ichiro‘s lack of walks makes his lifetime .333 BA that much more valuable. Even in a season in which he went on the DL for the first time and missed 16 games, Ichiro still had 225 hits to go with his .352 BA. His steals were down to 26 and Ichiro is now 36, so draft him more for the BA than for the steals. But with 63 infield hits last year, Ichiro still has some life in his legs.

TIER 4

Jayson Werth‘s 36 homers and 99 RBI blew away his career highs. He also stole 20 bases for the second straight year. Only one other player – Mark Reynolds – had more homers while also stealing 20. Werth’s.268 BA was around his lifetime mark of .275. Werth turns 31 this season, so 2009 might have been a career year. But he is also playing for a new contract this season.

Coming to Citi Field may not affect Jason Bay‘s homer totals as much as one might think. Bay hit only 15 of his 36 homers in 2009 at Fenway Park.  In his next-best homer year, 2006, Bay, then with the Pirates, hit only 13 of his 35 homers at PNC. But while Bay is a career .280 hitter, he hit .267 last year and .247 in 2007. Bay stole 13 bases last year, and could improve on that number. The heart of the Mets’ order figures to run more than most with With Jose Reyes slated to start the season batting third and David Wright coming off a 27-steal year.

Adam Lind delivered on his potential with a 35-114-.305 breakout year. He did not tail off – his second-half numbers were practically the same as those in his first half.  His OPS was much better against righties than lefties – .992-.780 – but the latter figure is good enough to keep him in the lineup against everyone. Even if the 26-year-old Lind regresses a bit in 2010, he can still put up solid numbers.

Curtis Granderson had 30 HR and 20 steals in 2009, his second 20-20 season in three years. But he hit only .249, mainly due to a .183 BA vs. lefties. With Nick Johnson currently considered the leading choice to bat second for the Yankees, Granderson could hit as low as seventh. Granderson hit only 10 of his 30 HR at Comerica, so his HR total could go up now that his home games are at Yankee Stadium.

TIER 5

Nick Markakis looked like a rising fantasy star when he went 23-112-.300 with 18 steals in 2007 at age 23. But he failed to dramatically improve in 2008, and last year finished 18-101-.293 with only six steals. Still a solid year, and he is still young enough to improve, but draft him on what he has done, not what he might do.

Bobby Abreu continued to be a five-category player in his first season with the Angels, hitting .293 with 15 HR, 103 RBI, 96 R and 30 steals. Abreu has been remarkably consistent for over a decade, so continue to count on him. Just know that Abreu will be 36 at the start of the season, so at some point, he will start to decline, particularly in steals.

At 33, Carlos Lee was still productive, going 26-102-.300. It was his fourth straight year batting .300, fifth straight with 100 RBI and tenth straight with at least 20 HR. But the homers are starting to dip – he had five straight years of 30 or more ending in 2007. But while Abreu has continued to excel in five categories, Lee no longer gets double-digit steals and his runs scored were down to 65. Unlike Abreu, Lee has to play for the weak-hitting Astros.

Andre Ethier sacrified average for power, moving from 20-77-.305 in 2008 to 31-106-.272 in 2009. His strikeouts rose from 88 to 116 in 71 more AB. Ethier hit only .194 against lefties with a .629 OPS, compared to .302/960 vs. righties.  Ethier turns 28 in April.

Injuries have now curtailed two of Josh Hamilton‘s three seasons. But he has also had an OPS higher than .900 in two of his three seasons. Throw in his off-the-field issues, including a relapse last year, and you have a very unpredictable player who went from 32-130-.304 with a .901 OPS in 2008 to 10-54-.268 with a .741 OPS in 89 games last season.  Split the difference of those two extremes and draft based on that, with the hope that he can recapture his 2008 magic.

For the second straight year, a Rangers outfielder was a late-blooming star. Nelson Cruz followed Hamilton’s 2008 by hitting 33 homers and stealing 20 bases in only 128 games at age 29. But Cruz hit only .260 and at this point is expected to hit seventh in 2010.

TIER 6

Shin-Soo Choo built on his promising 2008 with 20 HR, 21 steals and a .300 BA. At 27, Choo has a good chance of going 20-20 again. .300 might be a bit much to expect since he had 151 Ks, but Choo does have a lifetime BA of .295 over his brief MLB career.

On June 1, Adam Jones was hitting .344 with 11 HR and 36 RBI in 45 games. But after an injury-plagued second half, Jones finished at 19-70-.277 with 10 steals. Jones is 24 and projected to be a future star, but do not draft him thinking he is already a star. Draft him based on his actual yearend numbers and factor in his great upside.

Hunter Pence‘s 25-72-.282 with 14 steals was slightly better than his 2008 season. Pence improved his BB/K rate from 40/124 to 58/109. His steal rate is poor – 14 of 25 last year and 11 of 21 in 2008. Pence turns 27 in April, so he could continue to improve – or have a breakout year along the lines of what was predicted for him after his great debut in 2007.

After hitting seven homers in the 2008 postseason, B.J. Upton only hit 11 in all of 2009, along with a .241 BA. Upton did have 42 steals. Perhaps Upton was still recovering from his shoulder surgery before the season. Upton is still only 25, but before you draft him hoping he will regain his 2007 form, when he hit .300 with 24 HR and 22 steals, bear in mind that Upton’s OPS dropped from .894 in 2007 to just .686 last year.

Shane Victorino‘s 10-62-.292 was in line with what we have come to expect from him. But after stealing 37 and 36 bases the previous two years, Victorino’s theft total dipped to 25. Victorino did score 102 runs for the second year in a row, but that total is likely to go down this year now that he is moving to the seventh spot in the order with new Phillie 3B Placido Polanco slated to bat second. In the first week of exhibition games, Victorino was battling a sore shoulder, but the injury does not appear to be serious.

Torii Hunter was 17-65-.305 at the All-Star break with 13 steals, but was hurt much of the second half and finished at 22-90-.299 with 18 steals. Hunter turns 35 in July. He has played more than 150 games only twice in his career. Hunter had sports hernia surgery in the offseason but appears to be fully recovered. He is still productive, but do not draft him hoping he can duplicate his first-half numbers over a whole season.

Photo by Steve Paluch.