Fantasy Baseball: Finding the Wright Choice at Third Base

Fantasy Baseball: There are at least eight good options at third base, and, unlike with shortstop, most of them are safe. Some even have upside. But once you get past the top tiers, there is a big dropoff. So do not wait long to grab a 3B.

TIER 1

Closers
Starting Pitchers Part 1
Starting Pitchers Part 2
Starting Pitchers Part 3
Catchers
Outfielders Part 1
Outfielders Part 2
Shortstops
Second Basemen
First Basemen

After slumping to an .801 OPS in June, here are Alex Rodriguez’ OPS figures the rest of the year: July: .905; August: .942; September: .958; Postseason: 1.308. A-Rod erased all doubts about his hip; he even continued to steal bases.

Before last season, A-Rod had alternated seasons of 35 or so homers with years when he hit around 50 longballs. Rodriguez turns 35 next season, so do not expect a return to 2007′s 54 homers. But a return to 2008′s 35-104-.302 is still earns you the first round.

TIER 2

Evan Longoria‘s 2009 included three months in which his OPS was .752 or lower. In the other three months, Longoria’s OPS was 1.134, 1.023, .937. And he might even have more to offer in steals – Longoria went 9-for-9 last year after going 7-for-7 as a rookie in 2008. He is 24 and only getting better.

David Wright hit just five homers at his new home, Citi Field, but he only hit five on the road as well. After two years of almost identical BB/K splits – 99/115 and 99/118 – Wright regressed to 74/140.

Wright had a particularly dramatic left/right split – .416 BA and 1.142 OPS vs. lefties and .277/.754 vs. righties. With Carlos Delgado gone, switch-hitter Carlos Beltran starting the year on the DL, and Jason Bay joining Jeff Francoeur in the outfield, the Mets are a lot more righthanded to start the season, meaning Wright could face fewer lefthanders.

Nobody can say for sure what happened to Wright last season. His concussion occurred on August 15, meaning it had nothing to do with the bulk of his mixed year. (Wright did hit only .223 in September after coming off the DL.) Wright has a lot of uncertainty for someone who figures to go in the second round. Depending on how his spring goes, it might be better to take a surer thing with one of your top picks.

TIER 3

Mark Reynolds was the only player in 2009 with 40 homers and 20 steals. He also set the all-time strikeout record with 223, shattering the record of 204, set in 2008 – by Mark Reynolds.

If Reynolds can keep up the power and speed, the low BA and strikeouts will not matter. But Reynolds only stole 11 bases over his first two seasons, and only 11 in four minor league seasons.

Even if Reynolds reverts somewhat to his 2008 totals of 28 homers, 11 steals and a .239 BA, he would still have one of the top power-speed combos at third base. (Or at 1B, where Reynolds also has eligibility.) But with those skyrocketing strikeouts, it is likely that if you draft Reynolds, you will have to find a player or players at other positions to make up the damage to your BA.

In one year, Wright went from being the best young third baseman in the NL to possibly not the best in the NL East. Ryan Zimmerman had the kind of year (minus steals) that Wright had hoped to have. After an injury-plagued 2008, Zimmerman delivered on the promise of his 20-homer seasons in 2006 and 2007, while also setting a new high in BA.

Kevin Youkilis led all third base eligibles last season with a .961 OPS. The previous season, it was .958. Both years Youkilis finished in the top six in MVP balloting. Youkilis also has 1B eligibility.

After hitting .345 in limited action in 2008, Pablo Sandoval showed that the high average was for real, batting .330 and adding 25 homers. Too bad he is on the Giants, which lowers his runs and RBIs. As with Reynolds and Youkilis, Sandoval has 1B eligibility.

In 12 seasons, Aramis Ramirez‘ 162-game average: 30 homers, 109 RBI, .286 BA. But as with Youkilis, Ramirez is over 30 and cannot always stay healthy. Ramirez only played in 82 games in 2009 due to a dislocated shoulder. But when he did play, Ramirez  finished with an OPS of .905.

TIER 4

If you already have your third baseman, you have the possibility of an All-Star. But now the question marks start.

Chone Figgins lacks the power you want from a 3B. It is risky to count on steals from a 32-year-old. But the Mariners like to run and age has not been stopping Ichiro on the basepaths. Just make sure that if you draft Figgins, you make up the power at 2B or SS.

Michael Young had his most homers and highest BA since 2005. But his numbers since then suggest that he is a lot more likely to maintain the BA than the homers. Young had seven straight years of at least 155 games played before injuries limited him to 135 last year.

Chipper Jones last hit 30 homers in 2004. He has only gone over 100 RBI once since then. He did hit .364 in 2008 to lead the majors in hitting, but his BA dropped exactly 100 points in 2009. Jones turns 38 in April and his 143 games played last year was his most since 2003.

Jorge Cantu followed up his 29-95-.277 2008 with another good year. The other names in this tier are much bigger, but they are also older. And Cantu has first base eligibility.

AND BEAR IN MIND

3B-eligible Gordon Beckham will probably get drafted to play second, but another player with eligibility at both spots, Ian Stewart, might still be around as the top third basemen run out. Stewart would be a great choice as a backup, since he has a lot of potential, hitting 25 homers last year, but must show he can rebound from a .228 BA.

Will Alex Gordon ever have that breakout year? If you are looking for a backup 3B, might as well take a flyer on the 2005 second-overall pick (Justin Upton was first and Zimmerman went fourth).

Photo by Keith Allison.