Fantasy Baseball: Don’t Overreach for a Top Shortstop

Fantasy Baseball: When a position only has a few good options, the conventional wisdom is to try to grab one early. But when it comes to shortstop this season, it might be better to wait.

There is a big dropoff after the first five shortstops, meaning that they could all be gone by the end of the third round. But your top three picks should be the foundation of your team, not a place to gamble on risky picks or take a player too high because of position scarcity, which is what you will probably have to do to land some of the big names.

Closers
Starting Pitchers Part 1
Starting Pitchers Part 2
Starting Pitchers Part 3
Catchers
Outfielders Part 1
Outfielders Part 2
Third Basemen
Second Basemen
First Basemen

TIER 1

The only way to overreach with Hanley Ramirez would be to take him with the top pick over Albert Pujols. And with the great depth at first base compared to shortstop, it could be worth it. Ramirez is one of those rare players who helps you in all five categories. He and Pujols were the only two players in the top eight of OPS in 2009 who reached double digits in steals.

Ramirez is stealing less than he used to and scoring fewer runs after moving to the third spot in the batting order last season. In both 2006 and 2007, Ramirez had 51 steals. In both 2007 and 2008, Ramirez scored 125 runs. But his RBIs skyrocketed in 2009. Oh, and he led the NL in batting. Ramirez’ OPS has topped .940 three straight years.

TIER 2

Troy Tulowitzki was one of only three players in 2009 with 30 homers, 20 steals and a .280 BA (along with Chase Utley and Ryan Braun). Tulowitzki delivered on the promise of his 2007 debut, when he finished second in Rookie of the Year voting in 2007 to Braun.

But between those years, Tulowitzki batted .166 in the first half of his injury-plagued 2008. On June 6, he was batting only .216 before he heated up.

Before last year, Tulowitzki only had 11 steals for his career, so there is no guarantee that he can get back to 20.

Tulowitzki is safer than any of the remaining top shortstops, but his track record is light for someone who probably will not last past the second round.

TIER 3

By the time of your draft, we should have a much better sense of how healthy Jose Reyes is after his disastrous 2009.  But what if Reyes looks healthy, but is not running as much?

There is more to Reyes than steals; last spring, Mets’ manager Jerry Manuel experimented with batting him third. Here are Reyes’ career averages per 162 games: Runs: 113; HR: 13; RBI: 67; Steals: 62; AVG: .286. If Reyes’ steals drop to 30 but he still scores 100 runs and maintains his other numbers, he could still be one of the more valuable shortstops. Just not valuable enough to draft where he is likely to go.

Update: Shortly after the above was published, Manuel announce that he would experiment with Reyes batting third in 2010, until Carlos Beltran returns to action, which the Mets hope will be in early May. So now Reyes’ fantasy value is even more unpredictable. Be sure to monitor him closely in spring training.

Jimmy Rollins‘ 2007 MVP season is looking like a career year. Since then, his average has dropped from .296 to .277 to .250, runs from 139 to 100, homers from 30 to 21 and steals from 41 to 31, his lowest since 2004. The 31-year-old Rollins lacks the upside of Reyes. But he also lacks the downside. And with a .251 BABIP in 2009, his BA could rebound this year.

Derek Jeter‘s 2009 numbers were only slightly worse than his great 2006 season, when he finished second in MVP balloting to Justin Morneau. (Jeter was third last year.) That gives Jeter two MVP-caliber seasons out of the last four.

But Jeter turns 36 in June. Only a year ago, he looked to be starting to decline after hitting 11 homers and stealing 11 bases in 2008.  Jeter hit 13 of his 18 homers at the new Yankee Stadium, so he does have a good shot at retaining his increased power. But can you count on 30 steals again at his age?

A year ago, Jeter was undervalued on draft day. Maybe he went in the seventh or eighth round. But now there is a danger that he could be overvalued.

If Reyes, Rollins or Jeter drop to the fourth round, go for it. But if there is an early run on top shortstops, it might be best to let someone else overreach. Once the top shortstops are gone, there will not be the same rush to fill the position.  You might be better off taking a lesser shortstop at a point where he could be a bargain.

TIER 4

These two Tampa Bay middle infielders were fantasy nonentities a year ago. Now they will be drafted as starters. But can they repeat their surprise success?

Ben Zobrist is also eligible at second base, where he figures to spend most of his time this season. Zobrist started 2009 as a backup and ended it finishing eighth in the voting for AL MVP. Zobrist’s .948 OPS was the same as Mark Teixeira’s. But Zobrist also added 17 steals.

Jason Bartlett shattered his career highs in 2009. His OPS of .879 was only the second time he has had an OPS over .700. Before hitting 14 homers last year, his career total was 11. Bartlett is now 30, so he likely had a career year that he won’t duplicate. But his speed is legit – he now has three straight years of 20+ steals. And he has hit at least .286 in two of the previous three years.

TIER 5

Going into 2009, they looked like stars in the making. But both players regressed last year.

Alexei Ramirez got off to a miserable start last season, hitting only .213 on May 21. While he turned his average around, he still ended up getting most of his homers and steals in the first half. After the All-Star break, Ramirez had only four homers and two steals. But Ramirez still has a better chance of double digits in homers and steals than anyone on the rest of this list.

After batting .291 with 21 HR in 2008, Stephen Drew‘s numbers took a big step back last year. He only hit .200 against lefthanders. Drew was the fifteenth pick in the 2004 draft, one pick behind Billy Butler and three picks behind another brother of a major leaguer, Jered Weaver.

Drew is 27, while Ramirez is 28 and has spent only two years playing in the U.S. Both players retain their upside, even if the likelihood of stardom has lessened somewhat.

TIER 6

At 20, Elvis Andrus led all shortstops in steals. He did not offer much in any other category, but Andrus did hit .280 in the second half and he stole more bases in the second half than the first. With Reyes’ uncertainty, Andrus might be the best bet among shortstops to hit .275 with 40 steals.

Asdrubal Cabrera is also eligible at 2B, increasing his value. His 42 doubles were tied with Hanley Ramirez for second among all shortstops, one behind Rollins’ 43. Cabrera is only 24, so it is possible that some of those doubles could become homers this year to go along with his double-digit steals.

Unlike Ramirez, Yunel Escobar saw his numbers improve from 2008. He matched or beat Ramirez except for steals. But Escobar lacks Ramirez’ power/speed upside.

AND BEAR IN MIND

Miguel Tejada went 14-86-.313 last season, making him a slightly better version of Yunel Escobar. But he turns 36 this year. Tejada will switch to third base this year with the Orioles, meaning this could be the last time he makes a draft list.

Just when Rafael Furcal seemed washed up after struggling to return from back surgery, he hit .324 with five steals in September. But that only brought his totals for the year to .269 and 12 steals. Furcal is 32 and has not had a strong year since 2006.

In his second year as Angels’ shortstop, Erick Aybar hit .312 with 14 steals. He is not as well known as Tejada or Furcal, but at 26, still has the potential to improve.

Everth Cabrera stole 25 bases in 377 AB last year for San Diego. He and fellow 23-year-old Alcides Escobar, who will take over the shortstop job in Milwaukee after J.J. Hardy was traded to Minnesota, both have the potential to steal 30 bases, but probably will not offer much in other categories.

Photo by SD Dirk.