Fantasy Baseball: Plenty of Second Basemen to Chase After

Fantasy Baseball: Second base is much deeper than usual this year. Chase Utley is still worth a first-round pick, but more than half of the top 12 start the year as potential All-Stars. In 2009, Aaron Hill and Ben Zobrist came out of nowhere to have great seasons, while Robinson Cano returned to elite status. In 2010, rising star Gordon Beckham will gain eligibility at second base.

TIER 1

Closers
Starting Pitchers Part 1
Starting Pitchers Part 2
Starting Pitchers Part 3
Catchers
Outfielders Part 1
Outfielders Part 2
Third Basemen
Shortstops
First Basemen

A year ago, Chase Utley was coming off hip surgery. Now he is coming off hitting a record-tying five homers in the World Series. Utley was one of only three players with 30 homers, 20 steals and a .280 BA (along with Ryan Braun and Troy Tulowitzki).

Utley has been great for five years in a row. Even if 2B is deeper this year, there is no change at the top.

TIER 2

Ian Kinsler was MLB’s only 30-30 player in 2009. Only two other players with 30 steals even got to 20 homers (Matt Kemp, Jimmy Rollins). With strong RBI and R totals, Kinsler would be a first-rounder if not for his BA, which fell to .253.

But Kinsler still had a good BB/K split of 59/77. Kinsler hit only .230 against righties in 2009, compared to .310 against lefties. But his lifetime L/R split is .300/.272. Even after last year, he still has a lifetime BA of .279.

Kinsler had never hit more than 20 homers before last year, so there’s no guarantee he will get back to 30. But while Kinsler is moving to the fifth spot in the batting order, he figures to keep running – he has stolen at least 20 bases the last three years and Texas likes to run. The Rangers’ 149 steals were second-best in MLB in 2009.

TIER 3

After a 30-30 season in 2007, Brandon Phillips had his second straight 20-20 year despite hitting only six homers after the All-Star break due to an injured wrist. Batting cleanup for the Reds, Phillips drove in almost 100 runs. Phillips’ .276 BA was almost midway between his 2007 mark of .288 and 2008′s .261.

Dustin Pedroia and Brian Roberts both offer tons of runs and value across all 5×5 categories. Pedroia led the AL in runs for the second straight year. His BA fell to .296 after hitting .326 during his MVP 2008 and .317 in 2007, but his great BB/K split of 74/55 suggests his average will go back up over .300

Roberts finished third in the AL in runs, his third straight year over 100. His steals have dropped over the last three years, from 50 to 40 to 30, but he still trailed only Kinsler in the category in 2009. Roberts has at least 23 steals in seven straight years. Roberts had a career high in RBI, his most homers since 2004 and finished third in the AL in runs.

Robinson Cano is at the bottom of this tier because of his lack of steals. But if you have enough steals elsewhere that you don’t need them from your second baseman, Cano’s other categories could move him toward the top of this tier. Cano reached career highs in HR and RBI. His .320 average easily topped all 2Bs. Cano is a lifetime .306 hitter whose high average is even more valuable since it comes with a high number of AB due to his lack of walks.

TIER 4

Aaron Hill, a former no. 1 pick (he was drafted 13^th in 2003, one spot behind Lastings Milledge). Hill seemed on his way up after going 17-78-.291 in 2007, but missed most of 2008 with a concussion.  In 2009, he finally reached his potential, but was it a career year?

Ben Zobrist began the year as a utility infielder and ended it as an MVP candidate. Shuffling between second, short and the outfield, Zobrist finished with the same .948 OPS as Mark Teixeira. But Zobrist also had 17 steals. The Rays traded Akinori Iwamura to give Zobrist a permanent spot at second. But as with Hill, Zobrist needs to show he can do it again.

Gordon Beckham reached the majors only a year after being the eighth pick in the 2008 draft. After the All-Star break, Beckham had 11 HR, 43 RBI and five steals in 260 AB.

Beckham projects as a future star, but 2010 would be a big success for him if he could reach numbers that Hill and Zobrist have already achieved.

Beckham was a 3B in 2009, but is moving to 2B in 2010. So bear in mind that he may not be eligible at 2B in your league until after the season begins and he plays enough games to qualify at 2B.

TIER 5

From 2007-9, Dan Uggla hit 31 or 32 homers each season and drove in between 88 and 92 runs. But he also batted in the mid-.240s twice and only .260 the other year. Still, if you can make up the steals and BA elsewhere, he is the safest bet for homers and RBI at 2B besides Utley.

Jose Lopez has seen his HR and RBI go up the last three years: 11-62, 17-89, 25-96. His .272 BA in 2009 is roughly midway between 2008′s .297 and 2007′s .252. Lopez had a severe home/road split last year – .883 OPS on the road vs. only .641 at Safeco. But his career home/road split is much narrower, so if he can rebound at home, his numbers could go even higher.

TIER 6

Battling out out for the final spot in the top 12 are three players who have been heavily hyped during their young careers – some would say over-hyped. Any of them could break out as one of the pleasant surprises of 2010 – or continue to frustrate their owners.

Howie Kendrick rebounded from a demotion to the minors in June to hit .358 after the break, but ended up platooning with Maicer Izturis, who replaced Kendrick against righties in the playoffs. Kendrick is expected to regain the starting job in 2010. Some still think he will win a batting title one day, but he will have to have a pretty high BA to make up for what so far is not much in the way of power or speed.

Ian Stewart went 10^th in the 2003 draft, three spots ahead of Hill.  Stewart is still young enough that there is hope that he will greatly improve his grisly .228 BA in 2009, down from .259 the previous year. Stewart’s home/road splits are more narrow that one might expect from a Rockie. The split to watch is L/R – Stewart only hit .178 against lefthanded pitchers with an OPS of .664 compared to .244 and .823 against righties. Stewart is also eligible at 3B.

Rickie Weeks seemed on his way to finally justifying the hype – he was drafted second overall in 2003, eight spots ahead of Stewart – before he went down for the season with a wrist injury. At the time, Weeks had nine homers in only 37 games, along with an .857 OPS. In 2007, Weeks showed his power-speed potential with 16 homers and 25 steals, but hit only .235. Weeks has hit in the .230s three of the four seasons in which he has appeared in at least 90 games. His wrist is said to be fully healed, but this injury-plagued player has yet to show he can stay healthy enough to fulfill his potential.

KEEP IN MIND

Asdrubal Cabrera is probably more likely to be drafted as a SS, but his eligibility at both middle infield positions adds value to this promising young player, who hit .308 with 17 steals in 2009.

Photo by WebbShots.