Fantasy Baseball First Basemen: Albert Pujols in a League of His Own

Fantasy Baseball: First base is so deep that Carlos Pena, who shared the American League home run lead with Mark Teixeira, does not even make our top 12. But it can still be worth your while to pick up a first baseman early.

Seven of the top eight home run hitters in 2009 were first basemen, and the eighth, Mark Reynolds, has first-base eligibility. But if you want a first baseman with both power and a good batting average, you need someone from the top tiers.

(Reynolds, Kevin Youkilis, Victor Martinez and Pablo Sandoval are not included in these  listings since they are more likely to be drafted for other positions.)

Closers
Starting Pitchers Part 1
Starting Pitchers Part 2
Starting Pitchers Part 3
Catchers
Outfielders Part 1
Outfielders Part 2
Third Basemen
Shortstops
Second Basemen

TIER 1

Albert Pujols‘ power numbers make him a first-rounder, but it is his other numbers that put him in his own tier. Pujols led the majors in runs scored last season for the fourth time. He led all first basemen in batting average. And he even stole 16 bases. Don’t count on the steals, but the dominance in the other four categories make Pujols the top choice in any fantasy draft.

TIER 2

All four of these players could be picked in the first round, and certainly no later than early in the second. We’ll give Prince Fielder the slight edge based on having hit over 45 homers two of the last three years (50, 46). Fielder turns 26 this season, meaning he  should be moving into his prime. Fielder’s 2009 OPS was third-best in all of baseball.

Mark Teixeira has only hit 40 or more homers once in his career, and that was five years ago, when he hit 43 for Texas in 2005.  30 of them were hit at what is now called Rangers Ballpark in Arlington. From 2006-2008, Teixeira averaged 32 homers per year.

But in 2009, Teixeira tied for the AL lead in homers with 39. 24 were hit at homer-happy Yankee Stadium. And all but five of his blasts were hit after May 8, when Alex Rodriguez returned to the Yankee lineup, batting right behind Teixeira.

The Yankee first baseman has always been a slow starter, so there is no guarantee that he will hit more homers with a full season of A-Rod hitting behind him. Teixeira also turns 30 in April.

Miguel Cabrera has hit at least 33 homers in five of his six full seasons, but never more than 37. But Cabrera has batted over .320 four times in the last five years.

In the final weekend of the 2009 season, Cabrera was arrested on a domestic-abuse complaint. Police said he has an 0.26 blood-alcohol reading. During the offseason, Cabrera spent three months in an outpatient treatment program for alcoholism.

If you play in a league that uses OBP instead of BA, move Ryan Howard to the top of this tier. Howard’s 162-game average for his CAREER is 49 homers and 142 RBI. But his .279 BA in 2009 was the first time in three seasons he has topped .270. In 2008, Howard only hit .251. Howard has also struck out at least 180 times each of the last four years.

Cabrera’s off-field issues and Howard’s strikeouts and lower BA make Fielder and Teixeira slightly safer choices. Hitting at Yankee Stadium in the Yankee lineup makes Teixeira the safest choice of all. But all four of these players finished in the top four of 2009 MVP voting in their league, and all four could do so again.

TIER 3

Adrian Gonzalez hit 40 homers last year, a mark no one else in this tier has approached. Gonzalez’ homers the last four years have consistently trended upward: 24, 30, 36, 40. In 2006, Gonzalez’ BB/K was 52/133; last year it was 119-109.

Gonzalez’ BA has trended downward over the last four years: .304, .282, .279, .277. And while he did reach 119 RBI in 2008, his 100 RBI in 2007 and 99 last year are more likely numbers, given his home park and weak lineup.

In 2009, Gonzalez went 28-63-.306 on the road, compared with 12-36-.244 at home. He had similar splits the previous two years.  At the beginning of February of this year, Gonzalez’ agent predicted that he would be traded. The Padres issued a quick denial, pointing out that Gonzalez was under contract for two more years. But if a trade appears more likely as your draft approaches, be sure to bump Gonzalez up.

Joey Votto had the fourth-best OPS in baseball last year, behind Pujols, Joe Mauer and Fielder. After going 24-84-.297 in 2008, his first full year, Votto raised his average 25 points and matched the HR-RBI in 57 fewer AB. Votto missed time due to stress and anxiety-related issues related to his father’s death as well as an inner-ear infection. With Votto looking to be at full strength in 2010, he can continue his rise to stardom.

Did Justin Morneau peak in 2006, when he went 34-130-.321 and won the AL MVP? Since then, Morneau has hit under .275 two of the last three seasons and averaged 28 homers per year during that time. Last season, Morneau hit only .201 after the All-Star break before his season was cut short by a stress fracture in his back. In 2010, Morneau moves into a new ballpark, but his career numbers are slightly better on the road than at home. Morneau is still fairly young; he does not turn 29 until May.

Morneau has a proven track record of consistency and is therefore a safer choice than Votto, but the Reds’ first baseman appears to have more upside at this point.

Kendry Morales had a better 2009 than anyone else in this tier and does not turn 27 until June, but Morales has no track record – he showed little in three partial seasons prior to 2009. Morales was a highly-touted prospect out of Cuba and 2009 might well be the springboard to a great career. But Gonzalez and Morneau are already having great careers, while Votto has two good years and part of a third.

TIER 4

Power hitters do not come any more consistent than Adam Dunn. He hit exactly 40 homers each year from 2005-08, 46 in 2004 and 38 last year.

But here’s Dunn’s BA from 2006-9: .234, .264, .236, .267.

If Dunn were a good bet to hit mid-.260s, he’d be worth a higher pick for the homers. But if he hits in the mid .230s, he will sink your BA.

One way to hedge your bets is to use Dunn only against righties. Last season, Dunn had an OPS of .978 against righties and only .787 vs. lefties. His career split is .937/.828. Dunn’s career BA L/R split is .254/.239, which is not a huge split, but would help to limit the BA damage.

Dunn’s OF eligibility moves him out of Tier 5 into his own tier. Even if Dunn has one of his bad BA years, he  could still end up as one of your better OF starters.

TIER 5

Lance Berkman and Derrek Lee are both 34. Berkman’s homer totals from 2006-9: 45, 34, 29, 25. After hurting his wrist in 2006, Lee’s 2005 career year of 46-107-.335. became a distant memory, as he failed to top 22 homers in 2007 and 2008.

But in 2009, Berkman’s OPS was still .907, while Lee’s numbers rebounded to be as good as those of Morales. Maybe Lee has finally recovered from his wrist injury. And Berkman is only a year removed from his 2008 29-106-.312. Don’t reach too high for these big-name players, but if they fall in your draft, they could be steals.

TIER 6

Billy Butler went 13-55-.314 in the second half of 2009. This highly-touted prospect could pass the likes of Berkman and Lee as soon as this year, but with no track record, we need to see it first.

Carlos Pena tied for the AL lead in homers last year, and did so while missing the last month of the season after breaking two fingers. Pena’s homer totals for the last three seasons are 46, 31, 39.

But his BA over those seasons is: .282 .247 .227.Pena’s average is trending downward and he is coming off a hand injury. Having a .227 hitter in your lineup, especially at first base, is practically punting a category.

Dunn’s potential to hit in the .230s is bad enough, but he has just as good a chance of hitting in the .260s. And Dunn is almost a sure bet for 40 homers.

If Pena’s average does not rebound, he willl need to regain his 46-homer form to move back into the top 12.

KEEP IN MIND

If you drafted someone toward the bottom of this list and want to have an alternative on your roster, keep Michael Cuddyer and Garrett Jones in mind. It’s possible that both had career years last season, but what they lack in track record they make up in position flexibility – both are eligible at OF and 1B.

After a promising debut in 2008, Chris Davis ended up back in the minors part of last season. When he returned, he hit 21 homers in 391 AB, but also fanned 150 times. Worth a gamble for your bench.

Todd Helton no longer has enough power to be a starting fantasy 1B, but if you can platoon him, he did have a .986 OPS against righties last season.

At 34, Paul Konerko is past his prime, but he still managed 28-88-.277 last season.

Photo by shgmom56.