Dan Haren and Johan Santana: Second-Half Trends on Second-Rate Teams

Arizona’s Dan Haren reached the All-Star break with a 2.01 ERA and an unbelievable 0.81 WHIP. The Mets’ Johan Santana was coming off of the worst month of his career. But based on their career trends, some fantasy owners looked to trade Haren and/or acquire Santana.

Both the Diamondbacks and Mets are underperforming this year, to put it mildly. The D-Backs have already changed managers, while injuries have decimated the Mets’ lineup.  Haren’s past history already suggested he would decline in the second half. But Santana generally shines even brighter after the All-Star break.  Would the same be true on the sinking 2009 Mets?

Four weeks after the All-Star break, those who took the gamble and traded Haren or acquired Santana are looking pretty smart.

Over the last three seasons, Haren has had some of the most dramatic splits of any big-league pitcher:

2008 Arizona
Pre All-Star break: W-L 8-5; ERA 2.72; WHIP 0.95; INN 125 2/3; K 112
Post All-Star break: W-L 8-3; ERA 4.18; WHIP 1.37; INN 90 1/3; K 94

2007 Oakland
Pre All-Star break: W-L 10-3; ERA 2.30; WHIP 1.00; INN 129 1/3; K 101
Post All-Star break: W-L 5-6; ERA 4.15; WHIP 1.50; INN 93 1/3, K 91

2006 Oakland
Pre All-Star break: W-L 6-7; ERA 3.52; WHIP 1.13; INN 127 2/3; K 98
Post All-Star break: W-L 8-6; ERA 4.91; WHIP 1.31; INN 95 1/3; K 78

Haren continued to have similar splits after switching teams and switching leagues. His ERA rose by almost two runs in 2007 and almost a run and a half in the other two years. Haren’s WHIP increased by 50% in 2007 and more than 40% last year.

Haren’s W-L did improve in two of the three seasons, and his K per inning rate went up all three years, substantially in two of them.

This year, however, after five post-break starts, Haren’s numbers are down across the board:

2009 Arizona:
Pre All-Star break: W-L 9-5; 2.02 ERA; 0.81 WHIP; INN 130; K 129
Post All-Star break: W-L 2-2; 4.94 ERA; 1.23 WHIP; INN 31; K 24

Just one month ago, on July 10, Haren pitched a complete-game shutout against Florida, striking out 10. In his first start after the break, Haren beat the Cardinals, allowing one run in eight innings.

But in his next four starts, Haren has had four mediocre starts, three of them against the Pirates, Mets and Nationals. In two of those starts, Haren only went five innings. Overall, in 23 innings, he has allowed seventeen earned runs.

From 2006-8, in August and September, Haren only had one month in which his ERA was below 4, and one month in which his WHIP was below 1.35.

Haren’s team only made the playoffs once in those three years, but but the ’09 D-Backs are on pace to have a substantially poorer record than any of those teams. And now number 3 hitter Justin Upton has been sidelined with an oblique strain. Upton had a similar injury last year that kept him out for 43 games, so the D-Backs may be without him for much of the rest of the season.

Mark Reynolds has more than picked up the slack – homering in each of the four games since Upton got hurt on August 5. But the D-Backs were swept over the weekend in Washington anyway.

As Arizona’s season slips away, Reynolds may be the only reason to keep watching. If Haren could not reverse his second-half fortunes on better teams, the odds are not good that he will suddenly figure out it on this mediocre Arizona squad.

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After an unbelievable start to the season that drew comparisons to Bob Gibson’s 1968, Johan Santana plummeted to a 6.19 ERA and 1.57 WHIP in June. After fanning 86 batters in 66 innings in April and May, Santana only struck out 18 in 36 1/3 innings in June.

Santana is famed for his second-half prowess. For his career, Santana is 61-41 with a 3.43 ERA before the break. After the break, he is 61-18 with an ERA of 2.70.

Last year, in his first season with the Mets, Santana went 8-0 after the break with a 2.17 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. In the first half, he was 8-7 with a 2.84 ERA and 1.19 WHIP.

In the first half of 2008, Santana pitched into the eighth inning only twice, both times coming out after 7 2/3. But in the second half, Santana went at least eight innings six times, including three complete games.

In 2008, Santana had two things to motivate him to pitch deeper into games. The Mets were in a pennant race and they had a terrible bullpen.

But this year, the Mets are playing for pride. There is no chance Santana will pitch a complete game on the last weekend of the season on a knee that would require surgery, as he did in 2008.

The Mets are in free fall. The team cannot hit, and now closer Francisco Rodriguez is faltering as well. K-Rod blew two saves in a row last week, including one that took a win away from Santana.

But so far, Santana has continued his tradition of second-half success. After going 10-7 with a 3.09 ERA and 1.20 WHIP, Santana is 3-1 with a 2.70 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in five post-break starts.

But as with last year, Santana has stepped up his efforts as the team’s needs have grown. Sunday, when the Mets needed a win to avoid a four-game sweep at the hands of the lowly Padres, Santana went eight innings for the second game in a row. He even helped out the offense with an RBI, giving him three in his last two games.

The one worrisome thing about Santana is that his strikeouts continue to be down (26 in 36 2/3 innings).

But Santana has a chance to win 20 games, which would be quite an accomplishment with that lineup. So far, he is meeting expectations for the second half, even if his team is not.

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Photo by afagen.