Suicide Bombers, Circassians and Sochi 2014: Can Russia Transcend Its History?

Two bombs – one carried by a suicide bomber - killed at least 11 people in southern Russia, just days after 39 people died from two bombings in the Moscow subway.

Russia’s 150-year-old problem in the north Caucuses is clearly back (and at heart this is a regional conflict not a religious one, though it has taken on strong Islamic overtones), except now the stakes have gone up for Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and his cronies – the Winter Olympics are coming to the region in 2014.

This means the Russians cannot stomp down to Chechnya and Dagestan and blast away, like they have done for centuries.

The 2014 Sochi Games are already troubled, and the news keeps getting worse.

In the most direct link yet between the Olympics and the Chechen fight against Russian rule, Circassians are demanding that the games be cancelled.  Hundreds of thousands of Circassians allegedly died during forced Russian deportations in the 1860s – with much of the killing taking place exactly where the Olympics are to be held.  Sarah Marcus links the two in the Telegraph out of the UK:

In the wake of the Moscow bombings, Putin and other officials spewed forth their typically tough talk.  From the Moscow Times:

“We know that they’re lying low, but it’s now a matter of honor for the law enforcement agencies to dredge them from the bottom of the sewers to the kingdom of God. I’m certain that it will be done,” Putin told a government meeting devoted to transportation safety, according to a transcript posted on his web site.

But they clearly understand on some level that violence only begets violence, especially in the Caucuses.   For three years, from 2004 to 2007, authorities in Chechnya took a softer stance in the region, and violence subsided.   Then they got tough again, and the violence returned.  Recently, however, there have been moves back towards the softer touch, according to the Wall Street Journal:

Analysts are generally critical of Russian policies in the region, which they say have done too little to deal with chronic unemployment and other economic issues, focusing instead on military means.

Russia President Dmitry Medvedev in January made what was hailed as a potentially important step to recognize that the Kremlin too will need to approach the North Caucasus as a whole and do more to develop its economy, setting up a new North Caucasus Federal District to govern much of the region.

Good for them.  But now – perhaps worried the Kremlin will succeed – the Chechen “black widows” are back (for a great analysis of why Chechens are blowing themselves up, go here) bringing their pain to the innocents of Moscow.

Yet today’s bombing in Kizlyar is almost more disturbing than the one in Moscow.  It means that it was not a one-off attack, that they mean to keep coming.

What will the Russians do?  Can they hold the nonviolent line, break the circle of violence?

Ummm, no.  Russian President Dmitri Medvedev called for “more cruel” tactics today (Thursday).

Perhaps this is where the Olympics can help, can truly foster some peace.  Maybe in his desire to avoid international humiliation, Putin and Medvedev will do things right – at least for the next four years.

Or, as now seems more likely, they will regress and get brutal and sloppy.  If so, maybe the Olympics get taken away from him, maybe they losetoo much face to stay in power, maybe Putin’s grip on power gets broken.